NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, timp said:

Just took a walk around the yard and there is still an average 19” snow depth. It was a relatively warm weekend but we only lost 4”. Really is going to turn into a glacier after this quick cold shot. It’s only my second winter up here but I kept feeling we were just one large synoptic event from it being a great winter. They have missed N. VT in all directions it seems so maybe it will still happen.

Yeah it would turn an average winter into a great winter for sure.  It would be a very memorable winter if we threw in one more during that peak stretch.

Thats usually what separates the great memorable winters from the good ones.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep. Same feel here. 

You’ve gotten what 2-3 storms over 12”?

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

You’ve gotten what 2-3 storms over 12”?

How is Friday looking for the ski areas?

I'm seriously considering taking either Thursday or Friday off if there is good upslope. I missed that 8" storm the other day.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

You’ve gotten what 2-3 storms over 12”?

3 of them, but I think to get to average I would definitely need a couple more. 1 inch every couple days isn’t going to cut it in terms of getting to average. It seems to me there has been a near total lack of straightforward 4-6 storms this winter. Maybe the SWFE around New Years was one. Even the three big synoptic events were all kinda marginal and goofy setups. I lucked out on them but other areas nearby were hosed big time. 

[backedgeapproaching]

It would have been great if Phin didn't have this forum as a resource and his own personal topographic tour guide (Will) and ended up in Whitefield or Bennington..  He would be doing some serious complaining....lol.  

[PhineasC]

Getting gusts to 35 here with a few stray flakes. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

It would have been great if Phin didn't have this forum as a resource and his own personal topographic tour guide (Will) and ended up in Whitefield or Bennington..  He would be doing some serious complaining....lol.  

It would have been terrible reading the obs from the rest of you. 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

3 of them, but I think to get to average I would definitely need a couple more. 1 inch every couple days isn’t going to cut it in terms of getting to average. It seems to me there has been a near total lack of straightforward 4-6 storms this winter. Maybe the SWFE around New Years was one. Even the three big synoptic events were all kinda marginal and goofy setups. I lucked out on them but other areas nearby were hosed big time. 

lol three of them is awesome.  I honestly thought this whole winter you’d be posting every day about how insane winter is up north, even if only 50% snowfall.  It’s interesting seeing your perspective this year, seems a little down/meh on it.  Like you’re left feeling unsatisfied.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol three of them is awesome.  I honestly thought this whole winter you’d be posting every day about how insane winter is up north, even if only 50% snowfall.  It’s interesting seeing your perspective this year, seems a little down/meh on it.

I probably spent too much time studying the historical records so I became keenly aware of what could happen. Kinda like spoiling a movie by reading the Wikipedia synopsis ahead of time. 

I’m also kind of just a high strung person. I am always seeking the best outcome, just how I am. I find it kinda hard to enjoy a warm cutter knowing my inch of upslope is coming afterwards. I admire those of you who can be so zen about it. I think it is best I am over here in NH based on my personality. I am not a good fit for VT.

This winter was awesome though. I rated it an A+ in the other thread. Always room for improvement though!

[backedgeapproaching]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol three of them is awesome.  I honestly thought this whole winter you’d be posting every day about how insane winter is up north, even if only 50% snowfall.  It’s interesting seeing your perspective this year, seems a little down/meh on it.

He did give it an A+ in the other thread. But yea, even at this point with 120" that would be an all time best for like 95% of this forum.

[LaGrangewx]

This winter would've been exceptional if the Christmas thaw never wiped out the December storm in southern and central Vermont.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I probably spent too much time studying the historical records so I became keenly aware of what could happen. Kinda like spoiling a movie by reading the Wikipedia synopsis ahead of time. 

I’m also kind of just a high strung person. I am always seeking the best outcome, just how I am. I find it kinda hard to enjoy a warm cutter knowing my inch of upslope is coming afterwards. I admire those of you who can be so zen about it. I think it is best I am over here in NH based on my personality. I am not a good fit for VT.

This winter was awesome though. I rated it an A+ in the other thread. Always room for improvement though!

Yeah one gets that impression reading your posts... sort of like knowing the possibilities and data is dampening the experience of your first winter.

Like if you had no idea on the climate, and just happened to move from the Baltimore suburbs or where ever, up to a hillside in the north.... then got hit with multiple 12+ high QPF snow events, measurable snowfall on like 3 out of every 4-5 days, upslope events and a sustained 24”+ pack for like two months... it’s hard to imagine having this feeling of being unsatisfied.

I think I felt a lot more like you when I first moved up here.  I’d be focused on the Mansfield depth running below normal and have this disappointed feeling...losing my mind when SNE gets hit a few times in a row while high/dry up here.  

Maybe it’s a coping mechanism (lol) but I feel like now I judge winter based on the experiences, and compare it to other places I’ve lived.  Like I think my highest single dump at one time was 10” back on Nov 2nd this season at home but I have enjoyed this winter because of how many snowy evenings we’ve had, it hasn’t been brutally cold, it didn’t rain for 6 weeks, and have had an 18” pack sustained through the heart of winter.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

This winter would've been exceptional if the Christmas thaw never wiped out the December storm in southern and central Vermont.

Yeah it would’ve been a top tier winter for CVT/SVT.  Killington has had a very solid snow season, I bet they are near tops relative to normal of NE ski resorts.  They were pacing with Jay for most of the winter.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah one gets that impression reading your posts... sort of like knowing the possibilities and data is dampening the experience of your first winter.

Like if you had no idea on the climate, and just happened to move from the Baltimore suburbs or where ever, up to a hillside in the north.... then got hit with multiple 12+ high QPF snow events, measurable snowfall on like 3 out of every 4-5 days, upslope events and a sustained 24”+ pack for like two months... it’s hard to imagine having this feeling of being unsatisfied.

I think I felt a lot more like you when I first moved up here.  I’d be focused on the Mansfield depth running below normal and have this disappointed feeling...losing my mind when SNE gets hit a few times in a row while high/dry up here.  

Maybe it’s a coping mechanism (lol) but I feel like now I judge winter based on the experiences, and compare it to other places I’ve lived.  Like I think my highest single dump at one time was 10” back on Nov 2nd this season at home but I have enjoyed this winter because of how many snowy evenings we’ve had, it hasn’t been brutally cold, it didn’t rain for 6 weeks, and have had an 18” pack sustained through the heart of winter.

I think things will settle in over the next few winters. I gave up complaining about MD winters long ago, for example.  

[PhineasC]

After the early Feb storm I was close to being overwhelmed by the snow, another big synoptic event would have had me calling for momma. But it really quieted down in Feb. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

After the early Feb storm I was close to being overwhelmed by the snow, another big synoptic event would have had me calling for momma. But it really quieted down in Feb. 

@Ginx snewx registered trademark 

[LaGrangewx]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it would’ve been a top tier winter for CVT/SVT.  Killington has had a very solid snow season, I bet they are near tops relative to normal of NE ski resorts.  They were pacing with Jay for most of the winter.

It’s interesting that Killington is up to like 180” on the season which is very good for them heading into March but sugarbush is only at 130”. They must’ve missed a lot of the upslope Stowe and Jay got but too far north for the synoptic storms that cutoff around Killington this year. Killington was due for a good winter they hadn’t hit their claimed average in several years. 

[alex]

Flurries here at 36/17

[Skivt2]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it would’ve been a top tier winter for CVT/SVT.  Killington has had a very solid snow season, I bet they are near tops relative to normal of NE ski resorts.  They were pacing with Jay for most of the winter.

Yes. It’s one of the deepest packs I’ve seen in my decades of hanging out here at Killington.  The woods are Very deep for here.  I actually started worrying about the lack of freeze thaw because I’ve seen spring bring spongy unskiable woods.  But it’s starting to solidify which should help with retention and spring conditions.  Although it would be great to avoid the eastern hardpack we have going on now, we could have the opportunity for keeping this pack, getting it to a slightly more solid long lasting condition, and then getting a big dump on top of that.  I think most folks here would be looking at a very highly ranked winter here with that scenario. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

It’s interesting that Killington is up to like 180” on the season which is very good for them heading into March but sugarbush is only at 130”. They must’ve missed a lot of the upslope Stowe and Jay got but too far north for the synoptic storms that cutoff around Killington this year. Killington was due for a good winter they hadn’t hit their claimed average in several years. 

Yeah my buddy’s parents live at 2,100ft at Pico and he says they seem to think it’s been one of the best snow years in a long time.  Every event has seemed to over-perform in that area.  I do think that plays a lot into the overall vibe of winter even regardless of totals.  If every event ends up snowier than expected (whether it’s a 6-12” forecast that ends up 24-30” in Dec or a 1-2” forecast that ends up 5”), it has to leave a better taste in the end.  

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

Yes. It’s one of the deepest packs I’ve seen in my decades of hanging out here at Killington.  The woods are Very deep for here.  

Yeah that’s what I’ve heard!  Awesome.  Seems like it’s been a great winter in the Killington area.

[Skivt2]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah my buddy’s parents live at 2,100ft at Pico and he says they seem to think it’s been one of the best snow years in a long time.  Every event has seemed to over-perform in that area.  I do think that plays a lot into the overall vibe of winter even regardless of totals.  If every event ends up snowier than expected (whether it’s a 6-12” forecast that ends up 24-30” in Dec or a 1-2” forecast that ends up 5”), it has to leave a better taste in the end.  

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They must be my neighbors. Yesterday it rained from 2-2:30 pretty hard.  Then froze last night.  It’s really the first time things did not exactly go our way.  But then again I think we dodged a bullet because it looked like it was going to rain for longer when looking at it earlier in the day.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

How is Friday looking for the ski areas?

I'm seriously considering taking either Thursday or Friday off if there is good upslope. I missed that 8" storm the other day.

It looks like there could be some orographic snows but nothing stands out at this point.  Conditions today were very firm below 2,500ft where a thaw/freeze cycle occurred.  Up at 3000ft and above is best.

The trick this week will be if any rain occurs and how far up in elevation it happens tomorrow morning.  Even a passing heavy shower to the summits can wreck it.

Arctic squalls tomorrow afternoon could bring light accums and then there’s some weak stuff that may fire up some orographic snow on Wednesday afternoon?

[mreaves]

40 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

It’s interesting that Killington is up to like 180” on the season which is very good for them heading into March but sugarbush is only at 130”. They must’ve missed a lot of the upslope Stowe and Jay got but too far north for the synoptic storms that cutoff around Killington this year. Killington was due for a good winter they hadn’t hit their claimed average in several years. 

That’s funny because I’ve heard the snow is pretty deep up around Camel’s Hump. 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Getting gusts to 35 here with a few stray flakes. 

My wife just alerted me that she heard pinging on the windows, and we've got some sleet falling here at the house, so there's definitely some colder air up there.

[J.Spin]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How far below Normal is Mansfield this year on its Snow depth and accumulations chart. I haven't followed that area particularly closely for last 5 weeks but that is also because i believe there have been a lack of good up slope snow last month. I wouldn't be shocked if this was one of their leaner years just going on a hunch. Seems Phin has done better than anyone In NNE relative to ave.

 

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

J. Spin has me beat. He is closing in on average I think. I am probably on top of the leaderboard in NH. About 120 inches so far for my neighbor I think. 

Edit: realized you may mean depth. In that case I was basically near average, or slightly below now with the garbage of the last few days. So I may be closest to average in that metric. Not sure what J. Spin usually has OTG at this time. 

 

4 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Below average depth looks like. I don't think Phins area has been better than most of VT. He looks below normal to date. I think JSpin is above normal to date(he can confirm)Figure all of Maine is well below average? Not really NNE here, more CNE but no one is probably more above average here than my area, Im already prob 25-30 inches above seasonal average, not even to season to date-- prob more like 50 inches above normal to date. Anyone else can chime in.  I know RUT area is also prob near seasonal averages or above too before March even starts.

 

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s weird, the mountain has been skiing like a much larger snow depth.  It really hasn’t felt like a sub-par winter to me... the lower elevations are definitely seemingly closer to normal (if not near normal).  

BTV airport is right around normal, JSpin has to be near normal and I feel like it’s been pretty close to normal here.  Central/Southern VT solidly above normal snow.  VT has seemed pretty good this year looking at the stats.

The 3,000ft and above level has been solidly below normal snow but with good snow down lower the skiing has been excellent.  Many have remarked about how the backcountry has been in play for so long, even low elevation stuff.

Most locals seem to think this has been a good winter for skiing after December.  You never get 6 weeks without a rain event and just pow on pow.

I saw that folks were discussing where locations stand on snowfall/snowpack, so I’ve got my numbers below.

Mean seasonal snowfall through 2/28 at our site is 121.3 ± 30.7”, and 118.4” is the median value.  Snowfall for this season is currently at 135.6”, so about a foot ahead of the mean value, but certainly well within the 1 σ range.

Mean snowpack for 2/28 at our site is 15.6” ± 9.5”, and 13.8” is the median value.  Snowpack is currently at 18.0”, so that’s very close to average for the date.

[alex]

Snowing moderately, and surprisingly it’s sticking even though it’s 35. The 18F dew point is probably helping 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it would’ve been a top tier winter for CVT/SVT.  Killington has had a very solid snow season, I bet they are near tops relative to normal of NE ski resorts.  They were pacing with Jay for most of the winter.

 

1 hour ago, LaGrangewx said:

It’s interesting that Killington is up to like 180” on the season which is very good for them heading into March but sugarbush is only at 130”. They must’ve missed a lot of the upslope Stowe and Jay got but too far north for the synoptic storms that cutoff around Killington this year. Killington was due for a good winter they hadn’t hit their claimed average in several years. 

 

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s what I’ve heard!  Awesome.  Seems like it’s been a great winter in the Killington area.

Below is the north to south listing of available season snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas:

Jay Peak: 235”

Smuggler’s Notch: 175”

Stowe: 178”

Bolton Valley: 154”

Mad River Glen: 146”

Sugarbush: 132”

Pico: 186”

Killington: 186”

Okemo: 116”

Magic Mountain: 107”

Stratton: 132”

Mount Snow: 143”

 

The totals will typically go from highest to lowest, right down the spine, so if you see substantial deviations from that trend, that’s something to note.

I don’t think any of the resorts are quite on average snowfall pace at this point, aside from those SVT areas like Stratton and Mount Snow – possibly because they got in on that big banding storm?

In a relative sense, the Killington/Pico area is clearly doing well if they’re ahead of every resort up north except for Jay Peak.

Killington/Pico and Jay Peak are probably close to average pace for snowfall?  I still think they’re a bit off of average, but closer than most resorts aside from the SVT ones I mentioned above.

I’m not sure what happened at Magic, except that they must have missed that big banding, and that’s where seasonal snowfall would be for the SVT resorts if they hadn’t gotten in on that?

I think I recall Okemo getting the brunt of some big storm at some point this season?  So the fact that they’re reporting only 116” for the season suggests that they have been pretty far off the pace for the most part.

There’s clearly been some disparity between average snowfall in the valleys vs. the mountains this season up here in NVT.  We’re a touch ahead of average snowfall pace here at our site, but in general, the resorts of the Northern Greens run just about double our snowfall here.  Therefore, they should be running around 270” at this point if they were on track with our site.  Even if they were just running at an average snowfall pace, they should be at 240-250” by this point of the season, and none of them, even Jay Peak, has reached that point yet.

All the resorts of the Northern Greens are definitely behind average snowfall pace for this point in the season (the below average depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake doesn’t prove that, but it’s at least consistent with it).  Skiing hasn’t suffered horribly though in the past couple of months around here though for at least a few reasons:

1.    We’re above the traditional 40” off piste skiing threshold depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, so essentially everything is well covered and in play.

2.    There’s plenty of liquid equivalent in the snowpack, even if the depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake has been running behind average.

3.    We’ve gone through many weeks with no thaws, so there haven’t been any losses to the snowpack, and the snow quality has stayed very high.  This is a great example of how those sub-300” and even sub-200” snowfall areas out in the Rockies can provide high-quality skiing most of the time.

[LaGrangewx]

29 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

Below is the north to south listing of available season snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas:

Jay Peak: 235”

Smuggler’s Notch: 175”

Stowe: 178”

Bolton Valley: 154”

Mad River Glen: 146”

Sugarbush: 132”

Pico: 186”

Killington: 186”

Okemo: 116”

Magic Mountain: 107”

Stratton: 132”

Mount Snow: 143”

 

The totals will typically go from highest to lowest, right down the spine, so if you see substantial deviations from that trend, that’s something to note.

I don’t think any of the resorts are quite on average snowfall pace at this point, aside from those SVT areas like Stratton and Mount Snow – possibly because they got in on that big banding storm?

In a relative sense, the Killington/Pico area is clearly doing well if they’re ahead of every resort up north except for Jay Peak.

Killington/Pico and Jay Peak are probably close to average pace for snowfall?  I still think they’re a bit off of average, but closer than most resorts aside from the SVT ones I mentioned above.

I’m not sure what happened at Magic, except that they must have missed that big banding, and that’s where seasonal snowfall would be for the SVT resorts if they hadn’t gotten in on that?

I think I recall Okemo getting the brunt of some big storm at some point this season?  So the fact that they’re reporting only 116” for the season suggests that they have been pretty far off the pace for the most part.

There’s clearly been some disparity between average snowfall in the valleys vs. the mountains this season up here in NVT.  We’re a touch ahead of average snowfall pace here at our site, but in general, the resorts of the Northern Greens run just about double our snowfall here.  Therefore, they should be running around 270” at this point if they were on track with our site.  Even if they were just running at an average snowfall pace, they should be at 240-250” by this point of the season, and none of them, even Jay Peak, has reached that point yet.

All the resorts of the Northern Greens are definitely behind average snowfall pace for this point in the season (the below average depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake doesn’t prove that, but it’s at least consistent with it).  Skiing hasn’t suffered horribly though in the past couple of months around here though for at least a few reasons:

1.    We’re above the traditional 40” off piste skiing threshold depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, so essentially everything is well covered and in play.

2.    There’s plenty of liquid equivalent in the snowpack, even if the depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake has been running behind average.

3.    We’ve gone through many weeks with no thaws, so there haven’t been any losses to the snowpack, and the snow quality has stayed very high.  This is a great example of how those sub-300” and even sub-200” snowfall areas out in the Rockies can provide high-quality skiing most of the time.

Great write up. Killington is actually about 15” above average based on the data they have on their website. They claim 170” is average by the end of February. Stratton should average a bit more snow than Mount Snow but they always seem to report pretty conservatively. Both those mountains are probably a bit above average. It is surprising Okemo seems to be below average even after their record 45” storm in December which accounts for almost half their snow on the season which basically disappeared not long after they got it. Seems like The great stretch that was enough to provide excellent skiing conditions wasn’t quite enough to overcome the lackluster start to the first 2.5 months to get places up to their season average to date. I believe The Mansfield stake has always been just below average and hasn’t been able to quite break above the mean line yet. Like you said, a below average winter has still provided one of the better stretches of skiing up there and that really goes to show how much it snows in the northern New England mountains during an average winter. Down here in the Hudson valley, if you get one big storm above 18” and have a sustained period of colder weather it’s an A winter. 
I wonder if Sugarbush could be measuring or reporting differently Or if they really did just miss out this winter a bit more than everywhere else? I remember in the past it was rare for them to report less on the season than Mad River Glen and especially rare to have less than Killington let alone 25% less like currently. Usually they were very close to Stowe’s numbers when they used their summit snowfall totals. 

[Lava Rock]

Reading all these high five posts and avg or above avg sn makes me think I live in an entirely different region. Still 20" BN here. Jeff, Tam and I got porked this winter.

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