NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

All but a memory come this weekend. Back to jorts and tees. 

Yup it’s crazy!

[mreaves]

Nice to look at while we have it.

 

[PhineasC]

Sun came out briefly, but now snow is returning. Looks like starting tomorrow it's back to early fall weather until after mid-month.

[powderfreak]

24 hour totals from 7am this morning.  I think the storm totals might be an inch or so higher in some spots from yesterday prior to 7am.

Fits with a band here on the east slope of the crest with 8-10".

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.33” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.7

Snow Density: 8.6% H2O

Temperature: 34.3 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

[J.Spin]

These days with the northwest flow banding are great when it’s snow globe flakes for a while, then the sun pops out for a couple of minutes, then you get right under the center of a band and it’s huge flakes with whiteout conditions, then it’s back to snow globe with some sun, etc.

We were in Montpelier when that larger cell on the radar came through and it was a whiteout with big 1” diameter flakes for a while.  It’s definitely great to be getting back into that northwest flow routine.

[J.Spin]

58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

24 hour totals from 7am this morning.  I think the storm totals might be an inch or so higher in some spots from yesterday prior to 7am.

Fits with a band here on the east slope of the crest with 8-10".

It’s great to have the new mapping options from CoCoRaHS now for plotting data from multi-day periods – plotting for these past couple of events, you can definitely see those east slope total liquid numbers and the massive increase from the Burlington area just 20 miles to the west,

[powderfreak]

Coming down to vote in town, I am pretty impressed at how well we did down low in this event.  Looks like a widespread 7-10” type deal driving down the road.  Normally we don’t pull 0.70” water out of upslope snow events but it was pretty well modeled that the east slope looked best with the high Froude numbers.  It seemed really fluffy but the water is decent and it’s not evaporating like 30:1 fluff, ha. 

Its winter right now for sure.  Great first event to get the monkey off the back lol.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 5.3” Snow/0.33” L.E.

It looks like this second storm has finally wound down and we’ve gone to partly cloudy skies, so the totals above should represent the final numbers for the event.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 34.3 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

[powderfreak]

Final event snow totals from BTV.

Nice event for ski country... can tell the flow was a bit unblocked into the east slopes and also because Lake Placid area in the Adirondacks doesn't usually get 9-12" of snow in these events.  Good lake effect and upslope connection for them.

It actually looked like the "snow map" models had the locations pegged pretty well if you were to average like the prior 3 days of all model runs.

[mreaves]

Went for a walk on the Montpelier bike path this evening. It’s a nice change from the bike path across the street from my house and there are lights. I will say 23° felt pretty arcticy. 

[backedgeapproaching]

Stepping away from the election for a bit, quite the temp contrast out there tonight at 10pm. 

 

[J.Spin]

On 11/3/2020 at 7:57 PM, powderfreak said:

Final event snow totals from BTV.

Nice event for ski country... can tell the flow was a bit unblocked into the east slopes and also because Lake Placid area in the Adirondacks doesn't usually get 9-12" of snow in these events.  Good lake effect and upslope connection for them.

It actually looked like the "snow map" models had the locations pegged pretty well if you were to average like the prior 3 days of all model runs.

Thanks for posting the summary map PF.  It certainly wasn’t a massive storm series for the mountains relative to what can happen around here, but it was a much more solid shot of snow for the valleys vs. those more typical events during this part of the season that have larger snowfall disparities with respect to elevation.

I’ve recorded these past two storms separately because there was a clear enough break between them to do so, but it was a combined 12.4” total of.  You actually did say on Monday that this area could pick up a foot of snow, and I assumed that was for the combined storm series, so that was a nice call.

As I’d mentioned in an earlier post here in the NNE thread, November seems to be a tough month to get large snowstorms in the valley, and I had the list of November storms ≥4” that I’ve recorded here at our site in another post.  Even combined, these recent events would have been our third largest November storm, so it certainly wasn’t record breaking or anything like that.  What is very notable though is the early date for these past couple of storms.  Being in the first couple days of the month is sort of just chance (vs. being a day or two earlier and being at the end of October), but that’s the way they played out.  So, these two storms are obviously going to make their mark in my November records just by the fact that they are the largest storms we’ve had this early in the month.

I hadn’t checked on the Burlington area during the event, but when I drove there yesterday, the disparity was obvious because any signs of snow had disappeared by Richmond.  You can see on the map that snowfall was basically an order of magnitude higher out here along the eastern slopes, and total liquid was somewhat similar as well.

That snow footprint is certainly how someone would write it up if they wanted to deliver in the Sugarbush to Stowe stretch of the Greens.

[J.Spin]

I finally had a chance to put together some images from our past couple of storms down here in the valley and up at the mountain, so I’ve added those below.

In terms of Tuesday’s ski conditions up at Bolton, it was certainly a fairly typical early season affair, and I’d say waiting for that second storm to put down the extra snow was the way to go.  I already posted the settled snow depth profile from my Bolton observations on Tuesday, but I opted to tour up at the main base, and there were clearly at least a couple more inches of settled depth up there (~2,000’) vs. what I found at the Timberline Base (~1,500’).

I could tell from the get go as I was ascending the Lower turnpike skin track and watching other skiers descend there, that the density of the snow was going to call for more moderate angle terrain vs. low angle terrain.  The snow was fairly medium weight powder, which was of course good with respect to providing some base for skiing.  There was obviously no existing snowpack below these storms, so if these recent snow had been 2-4% H2O champagne, there would have been a lot of dicey contact with the ground.  But, this medium weight snow was dense enough that there was just too much resistance for low angle terrain – skiers and riders had to straight line their way down and/or use old tracks to keep moving on those angles.

Something in the medium to low-angle range was required for solid turns, and that meant that it was a balancing act between choosing terrain that had enough pitch for turns, but not too much pitch that you were going to be outskiing the available snow depth.  There was also the factor of finding relatively protected terrain – that first storm especially, had some ridiculous winds, and scouring of the exposed slopes was rampant.

So, good knowledge of the local terrain was important, but once you found the appropriate setup there were some nice midwinter powder turns to be had.  There was as always that exercise of not going too steep, aggressive, or rocky to outperform the available snow, so of course having knowledge of those grassier options was important in providing the best ski experience.

[powderfreak]

On 11/3/2020 at 7:57 PM, powderfreak said:

 

This really hit it on the head in VT.

[J.Spin]

I haven’t been up to the mountains since Tuesday, but I can pass along some valley snow observations from the past few days from my trips to Burlington.  Heading westward into the Champlain Valley on Wednesday, snow disappeared around the Richmond area, then by Thursday the last signs were around the town of Bolton.  Yesterday afternoon on the way home, I didn’t see anything in Bolton Flats, and snow didn’t show up until I got near our area near the pass on I-89.  There were still a few patches around here at the house this morning, but I suspect this will be the last day to report anything from our location.

This weather is really nice now – things are drying out and I should be able to finish lawn cleanup, and the local trails seem to have generally dried up as well, so it could be a good time for a ride.

Next weekend doesn’t look nearly this nice though; the models suggest temperatures more typical of November around here with chances for snow if any systems affect the area.

[borderwx]

First time in 20 years I switched the tractor over to the snow thrower without my finger tips going numb

[wxeyeNH]

Just another clear, no wind November 70F day.   My neighbors are raking leaves and say it's almost perfect just a bit too warm

[J.Spin]

October Totals

Accumulating Storms:  2

Snowfall:  0.7”

Liquid Equivalent: 4.92” (-0.40”)

 

Calendar Year Liquid: 42.13” (-2.61”)

 

I hadn’t yet assembled my October precipitation data, but I’ve put it together now and pasted it above.  It really was a pretty typical October based on what I’ve observed at this stie.  Snowfall was a couple tenths low, but pretty darned close considering the potential variability in the month’s snow.  Liquid was a few tenths low, and calendar year liquid is running 2-3” behind average pace.

[#NoPoles]

I finally have figured out how to delineate the start of NNE Cold Season and NNE Warm season:

It is officially Cold Season when my tire pressures sensors indicator light turns on. It is officially Warm Season when my tire pressure sensors indicator light turns off.

[backedgeapproaching]

Going to be some big diurnal ranges today in the lowest valley points.  Saw some upper 20s in the deepest darkness low spots around here this morning. Maybe low- mid 70s by afternoon?

Nice inversion this morning- it was 53F at 2600ft at stratton,  40f here at my house at 1100ft and 28-29F at 700ft.

 

[klw]

11 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

I finally have figured out how to delineate the start of NNE Cold Season and NNE Warm season:

It is officially Cold Season when my tire pressures sensors indicator light turns on. It is officially Warm Season when my tire pressure sensors indicator light turns off.

This happened on both of our cars this year.  With both it was only 2 or 3 days until the snows were going on and things looked fine so I assumed it was the cold.

[wxeyeNH]

How unusual is this November warm spell?   Our departures from norm must be more than SNE.  It's  longevity makes it very unique. Days and days of near 100% sunshine and no wind.  I don't know if there are records that show 7 day departures from norm?

 

[jculligan]

46 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

How unusual is this November warm spell?   Our departures from norm must be more than SNE.  It's  longevity makes it very unique. Days and days of near 100% sunshine and no wind.  I don't know if there are records that show 7 day departures from norm?

 

I know it's not what most want to talk about, but from a historical perspective I would imagine this is approaching all-time record territory for the first and second week of November at this latitude and elevation. Here at 1500' this is the last five days:

11/5: 65/33
11/6: 69/48
11/7: 75/54
11/8: 70/50
11/9: 72/48

It looks like we have two more days of outrageous departures to go. We didn't have a stretch even remotely this warm for this long during all of October.

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, jculligan said:

I know it's not what most want to talk about, but from a historical perspective I would imagine this is approaching all-time record territory for the first and second week of November at this latitude and elevation. Here at 1500' this is the last five days:

11/5: 65/33
11/6: 69/48
11/7: 75/54
11/8: 70/50
11/9: 72/48

It looks like we have two more days of outrageous departures to go. We didn't have a stretch even remotely this warm for this long during all of October.

 

That spot is really catching the warmth for that latitude and elevation.  I'm a bit farther north and 1100' lower and here's my past 5:

11/5:  54/27
11/6:  63/31
11/7:  69/44   morning low about 50.
11/8:  61/36
11/9:  67/38  estimated - haven't checked the max-min yet.

However, in 22 years I've recorded 16 November minima of 60+ and never had 2 in a row - closest was 10/31-11/1 last year.  Now I've had 2 in a row twice in succession (and may bag a 3rd pair, for a run of 6.)

[powderfreak]

I feel like the elevated mid-slope zone of like 1,500-2,500ft is taking the brunt of the highest departures.... the mid-slopes are still getting the full afternoon torch but they aren’t decoupling at night either.

The past couple mornings it’s been a good 10F colder at 750ft than 1500ft (very shallow inversion)...while the afternoons are only 2-4F warmer in the valley.  The net result is a warmer daily mean temp at 1500ft because of the large nighttime spread, at least in this local topography.

[jculligan]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

That spot is really catching the warmth for that latitude and elevation.  I'm a bit farther north and 1100' lower and here's my past 5:

11/5:  54/27
11/6:  63/31
11/7:  69/44   morning low about 50.
11/8:  61/36
11/9:  67/38  estimated - haven't checked the max-min yet.

However, in 22 years I've recorded 16 November minima of 60+ and never had 2 in a row - closest was 10/31-11/1 last year.  Now I've had 2 in a row twice in succession (and may bag a 3rd pair, for a run of 6.)

It's been fun looking at all of the mesoscale temperature patterns on local thermometers around here during this stretch. I found another site which is 180' higher and about two miles away as the crow flies, and they have logged the following (compared to my numbers in red):

11/5: 66/34 (65/33)
11/6: 69/50 (69/48)
11/7: 74/59 (75/54)
11/8: 72/50 (70/50)
11/9: 72/48 (72/48)

The low temperatures on the morning of 11/7 were nothing short of remarkable around here. I am anticipating we'll see something similar on Wednesday morning as well. I think my average high temp for this date should be somewhere in the mid 40s, so to have overnight lows in the mid 50s is quite extreme.

[jculligan]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like the elevated mid-slope zone of like 1,500-2,500ft is taking the brunt of the highest departures.... the mid-slopes are still getting the full afternoon torch but they aren’t decoupling at night either.

The past couple mornings it’s been a good 10F colder at 750ft than 1500ft (very shallow inversion)...while the afternoons are only 2-4F warmer in the valley.  The net result is a warmer daily mean temp at 1500ft because of the large nighttime spread, at least in this local topography.

Absolutely. There's a thermometer in Jackson Village (863') that has logged the following compared to my numbers (again in red):

11/5: 69/26 (65/33)
11/6: 72/39 (69/48)
11/7: 76/50 (75/54)
11/8: 75/41 (70/50)
11/9: 73/34 (72/48)

A 14-degree difference between my place and the village this morning, but yet a difference of only 1 degree this afternoon.

[powderfreak]

Just now, jculligan said:

Absolutely. There's a thermometer in Jackson Village (863') that has logged the following compared to my numbers (again in red):

11/5: 69/26 (65/33)
11/6: 72/39 (69/48)
11/7: 76/50 (75/54)
11/8: 75/41 (70/50)
11/9: 73/34 (72/48)

A 14-degree difference between my place and the village this morning!

Ha yup sounds like here and with very similar elevations between village and base of the ski resort.

The differences at night there also look to be beating the daytime differences, so definitely a warmer mean temperature this week in the mid-slopes that stay well mixed at night.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Absolutely. There's a thermometer in Jackson Village (863') that has logged the following compared to my numbers (again in red):

11/5: 69/26 (65/33)
11/6: 72/39 (69/48)
11/7: 76/50 (75/54)
11/8: 75/41 (70/50)
11/9: 73/34 (72/48)

A 14-degree difference between my place and the village this morning, but yet a difference of only 1 degree this afternoon.

I see this all the time between my site and Gorham. They beat me on clear cold nights, but my high temps are always 5-7 degrees colder.