powderfreak Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 hours ago, alex said: What a day! Could see forever. Caked views. Love that just pasted white against the bluest skies. That area always looks so white. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Caked views. Love that just pasted white against the bluest skies. That area always looks so white. We get plenty of white... just not a lot of blue!!! The downside of the upslope zone (you know all about it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I agree with the BTV decision for Advisory over Warning, despite total amounts possible. I think impact wise up here, in an area that does snow well, the long duration never comes all that close to warning level time frames as far as inconvenience. It’s a longer duration light/moderate snow event where it can add up over time to decent totals up in the northern mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 655 PM EST Sunday...Have made some minor updates to temps and sky cover based on crnt obs and satl pics. Have noted more of a pres gradient acrs our cwa this evening associated with low pres over the southern Ohio Valley and cold arctic high pres over northern New England. This gradient, along with developing high clouds will keep temps slightly warmer tonight. Thinking lows generally range from the single digits to -10F to -15F acrs the NEK. Otherwise, mid/upper lvl clouds will continue to advect slowly into our cwa from sw to ne. Just a side note, we did re-issue the wsw product so our snow totals matched our graphics to help with a consistent message, but no change to headlines were made. This upcoming event will be a long duration event 36 to 48 hours with several different phases. Bottom line expecting a widespread moderate snowfall, with hazardous travel expected Tuesday into Weds. Previous discussion below&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The text came in today that our area had been put under a Winter Weather Advisory, and as the BTV NWS alerts map shows below, all the Winter Storm Watches in VT have moved on to Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings. On the Event Total Snowfall map, we’re in the 8-12” shading as were in the previous update, but that area of 8-12” projected accumulations has expanded significantly in the updated map to cover a fairly broad area east and west of the spine of the Greens. There are also areas of 12-18” shading appearing in NNY. The map still only covers the period through 7:00 A.M. Wednesday, so it won’t include the potential accumulations for Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday on the back side of the system. The point forecast here calls for roughly 6-12” through Tuesday night, but as with the previous forecast, the additional periods aren’t into the accumulations range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 As everyone already mentioned, what an awesome day out there. The snow was in great condition and even though it was below zero when we went out this morning, it was the warmest below zero I’ve felt in a long time. Warmed quick with Calm winds and blue sky forever. Just got back to Jersey for a few days racing the snow home. Planned to be home the beginning of this week back in early January and the timing couldn’t be better. Should be a good one down here. Maybe even “epic” for Jersey standards. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 11 hours ago, bwt3650 said: As everyone already mentioned, what an awesome day out there. The snow was in great condition and even though it was below zero when we went out this morning, it was the warmest below zero I’ve felt in a long time. Warmed quick with Calm winds and blue sky forever. Just got back to Jersey for a few days racing the snow home. Planned to be home the beginning of this week back in early January and the timing couldn’t be better. Should be a good one down here. Maybe even “epic” for Jersey standards. Puking snow from NYC down thru central Jersey, reports of 6-11" on the NY Metro subforum. January 2021 numbers. An odd month in that it was 3rd warmest of 23 (behind 2006 and 2002) but never reached 40. Thru the 29th the month's high was 39 and low -1, only 40° range while the average range for January is 65. Avg max: 29.2 +3.5 Mildest: 39 on the 15th Avg min: 12.3 +8.1 Coldest: -19 on the 31st Mean: 20.7 +5.8 Precip: 2.39" -0.78" Greatest day: 1.29" on the 16th (4.7" of 4.4-to-1 SN and 0.22" RA) Snow: 18.2" -1.4" Greatest dy: 6.0" on the 2nd. Last month makes 7 consecutive "snow months" (DJFM) with BN snowfall, though it was the closest to average. Avg. pack: 7.3" -3.7" Lowest was zero on 1/1, highest was 12" on 27,28. Season SDDs at 319, avg is 537. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 22 minutes ago, tamarack said: Puking snow from NYC down thru central Jersey, reports of 6-11" on the NY Metro subforum. January 2021 numbers. An odd month in that it was 3rd warmest of 23 (behind 2006 and 2002) but never reached 40. Thru the 29th the month's high was 39 and low -1, only 40° range while the average range for January is 65. Avg max: 29.2 +3.5 Mildest: 39 on the 15th Avg min: 12.3 +8.1 Coldest: -19 on the 31st Mean: 20.7 +5.8 Precip: 2.39" -0.78" Greatest day: 1.29" on the 16th (4.7" of 4.4-to-1 SN and 0.22" RA) Snow: 18.2" -1.4" Greatest dy: 6.0" on the 2nd. Last month makes 7 consecutive "snow months" (DJFM) with BN snowfall, though it was the closest to average. Avg. pack: 7.3" -3.7" Lowest was zero on 1/1, highest was 12" on 27,28. Season SDDs at 319, avg is 537. Yeah, I’m one of those areas..closing in on a foot already and puking snow. Close to 3” in the last hour. My place up through your old Morris county area looks like ground zero for two feet plus. NJ just told my jay spot..”I see your epic snow, hold my beer”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Any sign of @jculligan? This is shaping up to be an awesome event for the eastern slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, bwt3650 said: Yeah, I’m one of those areas..closing in on a foot already and puking snow. Close to 3” in the last hour. My place up through your old Morris county area looks like ground zero for two feet plus. NJ just told my jay spot..”I see your epic snow, hold my beer”. Won't be so epic when it melts by the end of the week. Jay still holds the retention crown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Won't be so epic when it melts by the end of the week. Jay still holds the retention crown. Ouchies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Won't be so epic when it melts by the end of the week. Jay still holds the retention crown. Trust me..I’ll take jay’s 350” a year average over nj’s 35” a year average everyday. Still, always amazed to watch crazy snow bands unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Trust me..I’ll take jay’s 350” a year average over nj’s 35” a year average everyday. Still, always amazed to watch crazy snow bands unfold. You'll have a nice trip back. Snow for miles and miles along the entire way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Reggie snows for like 60-70 hours straight here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 14 out there now. I know it’s not nne, but as a snow geek, you gotta love 3+ inch an hour rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just for total fun here is the total Kuchera snowfall for today's GFS run. Cut it in half with a 1:10 ratio. After a quiet January synoptic wise it looks like we are going into an active pattern with all kinds of possible outcomes. J Spin, PF, Phin and Alex have 50" plus totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just for total fun here is the total Kuchera snowfall for today's GFS run. Cut it in half with a 1:10 ratio. After a quiet January synoptic wise it looks like we are going into an active pattern with all kinds of possible outcomes. J Spin, PF, Phin and Alex have 50" plus totals The 12z GFS is pretty amazing here. One snowstorm after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 44 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: 14 out there now. I know it’s not nne, but as a snow geek, you gotta love 3+ inch an hour rates. Getting crushed. Send it up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 46 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just for total fun here is the total Kuchera snowfall for today's GFS run. Cut it in half with a 1:10 ratio. After a quiet January synoptic wise it looks like we are going into an active pattern with all kinds of possible outcomes. J Spin, PF, Phin and Alex have 50" plus totals Sure, why not. No cutters in sight, which is nice to see. If that Grinch didn't happen, man what a ridiculous base there would be. Its already decent now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Sure, why not. No cutters in sight, which is nice to see. If that Grinch didn't happen, man what a ridiculous base there would be. Its already decent now. Would be a totally different winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Trust me..I’ll take jay’s 350” a year average over nj’s 35” a year average everyday. Still, always amazed to watch crazy snow bands unfold. I do love the big storms down there, when they happen they go big. Not worth the wait though for a biggie. I'll take the consistency all day long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Hum Euro? just your average 967mb low coming through New England at hour 160. Both Euro and GFS have crazy snow amounts coming up for NNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 We need PF or Gene to post Euro kuchie for a side by side with GFS..ha. Lots of potential..man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: We need PF or Gene to post Euro kuchie for a side by side with GFS..ha. Lots of potential..man. Here you go. GFS goes out further but there is no real snow after hour 240 so it is a side by side comparison. (Note the crazy amounts down in the Mid Atlantic on the Euro) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Here you go. GFS goes out further but there is no real snow after hour 240 so it is a side by side comparison. (Note the crazy amounts down in the Mid Atlantic on the Euro) The poor upper Cape sticking into the minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said: Sure, why not. No cutters in sight, which is nice to see. If that Grinch didn't happen, man what a ridiculous base there would be. Its already decent now. My idea about these type of occurrences is that it is simply Mother Nature making sure we will have room for all the snow we are going to get. She doesn't want us to be overwhelmed to the point we can't even cross the street because the snowbanks are too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The poor upper Cape sticking into the minimum. Even the ocean gets more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 56 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I do love the big storms down there, when they happen they go big. Not worth the wait though for a biggie. I'll take the consistency all day long. 100 percent agree. Plus the whole mountain micro-climate and the outdoor activities in the greens. We are at around 18-20 here so far. Last time we were over 18 was 2016..too long to wait for big snows when we can see that several times a year up in northern Vermont. Still, it was cool to watch those bands sit over me for several hours. Got lucky this year on the timing. Weekend looks much better up north now too. Looks like a great mid winter period coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 41 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Here you go. GFS goes out further but there is no real snow after hour 240 so it is a side by side comparison. (Note the crazy amounts down in the Mid Atlantic on the Euro) That looks like it would bring the Mansfield depth pretty close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: 100 percent agree. Plus the whole mountain micro-climate and the outdoor activities in the greens. We are at around 18-20 here so far. Last time we were over 18 was 2016..too long to wait for big snows when we can see that several times a year up in northern Vermont. Still, it was cool to watch those bands sit over me for several hours. Got lucky this year on the timing. Weekend looks much better up north now too. Looks like a great mid winter period coming up. 5 years between 24" storms is a ridiculous return rate for NJ--just seems like 2ft storms grow on trees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Incoming... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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