NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[PhineasC]

Just now, mreaves said:

It was pretty crappy by this time anyway. Closing snowmobile trails was pretty much a moot point when that happened. We had a couple of events that created solid ice ribbons. I think there were a few trails open around Woodford but it was not much.  

Interesting comparison to this winter. Last winter, Randolph recorded 207" but it seems retention was not great. I held on to my 30 inches this season for a long while without much help from above and there is still 20-25 out there in areas not getting blasted by the sun all day.

[powderfreak]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Interesting comparison to this winter. Last winter, Randolph recorded 207" but it seems retention was not great. I held on to my 30 inches this season for a long while without much help from above and there is still 20-25 out there in areas not getting blasted by the sun all day.

Last year March 1-17 your neighbor recorded only 5.8" of snowfall.  This year he's got 9.4"... so you are running close to twice as snowy as last March, lol.

I guess maybe that's why these stretches don't seem all that uncommon to some of us.  Maybe the length of it this year is longer than normal but it's been off-set by the retention in snowpack.  We do go through some very snowless periods at times.

[backedgeapproaching]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

This is pretty accurate. Alex is not doing any better than anyone else, his totals are below mine by a bit right now as he underperformed in the east-flow synoptic events that hit Randolph pretty well.

Some of the southern and central VT totals are pretty good, but they are inflated by the 36-40" some spots received in the mid-December event. Take that away and it was a pretty pedestrian snow year in several locales. I may not have the full story there, I am not as familiar with the climo over there. Maybe they are around normal even without the big dump.

I believe J. Spin is closest to average at this point, but to be honest his weather seems to be much more decoupled from the overall pattern than is the case for the rest of us. It just snows there on schedule because of topography and the calendar date it seems. He appears to need even less synoptic help than Mt. Mansfield to reach average. I am not sure about Jay. Maybe they are near average now. I doubt it just based on posts here and their lofty average.

It was still a good winter here, but there is zero doubt from a snowfall perspective Feb and March have been well off the mark across the majority of NNE.

Retention is a different matter, that was good in Feb, behind in March with very little progress being made since the start of Feb in adding pack. Just maintaining until recently when it became clear it was a losing battle against the solar input.

Bretton Woods has reported 110" last I checked. The Randolph Hill observer near me has reported 130.5" so far with very little on the horizon.

A+ winter for me compared to MD, obviously. But I assuming the regulars here will give grades ranging from F from someone like @dryslot or @Lava Rock to maybe a B or similar for J. Spin.

If you wipe away the mid DEC storm, I would be right around average, maybe a smidge lower. Considering that entire storm got wiped out by the grinch, retention was still pretty impressive for these parts.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Interesting comparison to this winter. Last winter, Randolph recorded 207" but it seems retention was not great. I held on to my 30 inches this season for a long while without much help from above and there is still 20-25 out there in areas not getting blasted by the sun all day.

Yes, retention was not great. This year we didn’t suffer a lot of loss between new year and March. It was a solid stretch that would have been better with more snow. I rate it a C- It was good for a relatively short time. 

[bwt3650]

9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

This is pretty accurate. Alex is not doing any better than anyone else, his totals are below mine by a bit right now as he underperformed in the east-flow synoptic events that hit Randolph pretty well.

Some of the southern and central VT totals are pretty good, but they are inflated by the 36-40" some spots received in the mid-December event. Take that away and it was a pretty pedestrian snow year in several locales. I may not have the full story there, I am not as familiar with the climo over there. Maybe they are around normal even without the big dump.

I believe J. Spin is closest to average at this point, but to be honest his weather seems to be much more decoupled from the overall pattern than is the case for the rest of us. It just snows there on schedule because of topography and the calendar date it seems. He appears to need even less synoptic help than Mt. Mansfield to reach average. I am not sure about Jay. Maybe they are near average now. I doubt it just based on posts here and their lofty average.

It was still a good winter here, but there is zero doubt from a snowfall perspective Feb and March have been well off the mark across the majority of NNE.

Retention is a different matter, that was good in Feb, behind in March with very little progress being made since the start of Feb in adding pack. Just maintaining until recently when it became clear it was a losing battle against the solar input.

Bretton Woods has reported 110" last I checked. The Randolph Hill observer near me has reported 130.5" so far with very little on the horizon.

A+ winter for me compared to MD, obviously. But I assuming the regulars here will give grades ranging from F from someone like @dryslot or @Lava Rock to maybe a B or similar for J. Spin.

We are below average...Like you, retention has been decent and there was a great long stretch of no warm ups/cutters so the mid Jan through early March Ski season was average to above average while the snow totals were below in my opinion.  

[bwt3650]

7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

What was it like this time last year? I wasn't around then. Washout and no snow?

It definitely has been a great ski season after Grinch through this week. Very few bad condition days, and we have been skiing 4-5 days a week the entire time so I have been out a lot.

Last year at Jay it was shut down a few days earlier but the weather had already turned to crap.  The last few days of Feb saw the best storm cycle of the season with about 36" but by this time, there had been a rainer or two and then a flash freeze.  Shutdown weekend was bad conditions and I think there would have been a bad couple weeks after that before it started snowing again if I remember.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

We are below average...Like you, retention has been decent and there was a great long stretch of no warm ups/cutters so the mid Jan through early March Ski season was average to above average while the snow totals were below in my opinion.  

Yes, good way to put it.  Some years we have more snowstorms and worse retention or more rainstorms so it’s a trade off. 

[powderfreak]

8 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

If you wipe away the mid DEC storm, I would be right around average, maybe a smidge lower. Considering that entire storm got wiped out by the grinch, retention was still pretty impressive for these parts.

The flip side would be if we removed the Grinch storm, this is probably close to an all-time winter for consistently deep snowpack.

However I always struggle with the logic of “wiping away” events or removing them to then compare a new set of parameters... because they did happen and every single season (be it summer, fall, spring, winter) or every month can look very different when we start cherry picking events to add or delete, ha.  Sort of like, if we get rid of a few of the 90 degree days, summer wasn’t very hot.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The flip side would be if we removed the Grinch storm, this is probably close to an all-time winter for consistently deep snowpack.

However I always struggle with the logic of “wiping away” events or removing them to then compare a new set of parameters... because they did happen and every single season (be it summer, fall, spring, winter) or every month can look very different when we start cherry picking events to add or delete, ha.  Sort of like, if we get rid of a few of the 90 degree days, summer wasn’t very hot.

 

Right, I mean it happened so it's going down to be built into the climo averages moving forward.  I was more placating to Phin because he keeps trying to erase that storm from the season averages .    Even without that DEC storm, I enjoyed this winter locally in the valley-- no windy events/no cutters--it just stacked up all nicely most of the winter Sapporo style like you mentioned I think a time or two.

[borderwx]

Seasons progress, now it’s mix and match season, time to utilize all the gear in the garage.

 

Besides, May is still a long way off  

5/12/20

 

[Hitman]

Sounds like some of you are talking as if winter is done.  Was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbour?

[J.Spin]

17 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Along the upslope spine it's hard for them to swing and miss (this year hasn't been good for them but its been "ok") others in NNE are likely Below average..  Anyone who doesn't live in Upslope Land and missed the big ML fronto that went from South Central Vermont over to South Central to Central NH is probably in the Below normal category.

That seems about right from what I’ve been hearing in the forum.

And indeed, it is probably harder for us in Northern Greens upslope land to have total dud seasons with respect to snowfall, since that potentially “more reliable” snow is probably a bigger component of our annual snowfall than it is in most other spots in the region.  It might even be a bit more than just the upslope too, because it seems like the Northern Greens also have that factor of being well positioned (in a windward sense) for those general bread and butter Clipper systems to get something out of most of them.

At the same time, it also seems very tough for us to have totally outrageous, well above average snowfall seasons.  All those extra little bread and butter systems and upslope deliveries are already baked into the climate numbers, so getting extra storms, and that “little bit extra” snow out of every storm is par for the course.  So it takes a special pattern over a prolonged period to really get well above the already somewhat amped up snowfall numbers.

As much as having the ability to experience incredible “way above average” snowfall seasons might be nice, that consistency/reliability factor is far superior for one’s typical season-long ski experience.  And, not getting huge, above average snowfall seasons isn’t really a big deal anyway if the status quo climate snow is already way up there on the quality scale.

[PhineasC]

29 minutes ago, Hitman said:

Sounds like some of you are talking as if winter is done.  Was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbour?

Maybe something in April. The next two weeks on the models looks pretty zzzz and kinda warm.

[J.Spin]

19 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I believe J. Spin is closest to average at this point, but to be honest his weather seems to be much more decoupled from the overall pattern than is the case for the rest of us. It just snows there on schedule because of topography and the calendar date it seems. He appears to need even less synoptic help than Mt. Mansfield to reach average. I am not sure about Jay. Maybe they are near average now. I doubt it just based on posts here and their lofty average.

A+ winter for me compared to MD, obviously. But I assuming the regulars here will give grades ranging from F from someone like @dryslot or @Lava Rock to maybe a B or similar for J. Spin.

Season snowfall through today at our site is 148.4”, which is about 7 to 8 inches ahead of average, but well within the average range.  That current total is actually average seasonal snowfall for our site at the end of March.

If the season ended with this total, then the snowfall would come in below average, and the grade would probably have to be less than a C (average), so perhaps something in the C- range.  Indeed, we had a great stretch of snow preservation and nice ski conditions in the January/February period, but we also had that relatively slow early season through some point in January.  November through January is a solid chunk of the season that can have some great skiing around here if base builds at a normal pace.

Using the seasonal snowfall average for Jay Peak that they currently report on their website (359”), and scaling proportionately using my running average, they should be over 300” of snow by now.  They’re currently indicating 259” on the season, so I’d argue they’re behind average pace.

There’s still a good 4 to 6 weeks of potential snowfall season to go though (which doesn’t include May since it’s really a wild card), so we’re certainly not at the point up here where we should consider any of these seasonal totals final just yet.

[PhineasC]

27 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Season snowfall through today at our site is 148.4”, which is about 7 to 8 inches ahead of average, but well within the average range.  That current total is actually average seasonal snowfall for our site at the end of March.

 

If the season ended with this total, then the snowfall would come in below average, and the grade would probably have to be less than a C (average), so perhaps something in the C- range.  Indeed, we had a great stretch of snow preservation and nice ski conditions in the January/February period, but we also had that relatively slow early season through some point in January.  November through January is a solid chunk of the season that can have some great skiing around here if base builds at a normal pace.

 

Using the seasonal snowfall average for Jay Peak that they currently report on their website (359”), and scaling proportionately using my running average, they should be over 300” of snow by now.  They’re currently indicating 259” on the season, so I’d argue they’re behind average pace.

 

There’s still a good 4 to 6 weeks of potential snowfall season to go though (which doesn’t include May since it’s really a wild card), so we’re certainly not at the point up here where we should consider any of these seasonal totals final just yet.

 

OK, good info. Agree on not spiking any footballs just yet. The Randolph data indicates that an April wet snow bomb or two can still materialize to add 15-20" of snow to the totals at the 11th hour. It's even possible in May, rarely.

[Angus]

In 2007, the ski season was done in late March. I believe during the second week of April it started snowing in the mountains and didn't stop. My son remembers skiing at BW Easter weekend with feet and feet of new snow on the ground when only the week before there had been discussions about not bothering to go due to lack of snow. We skied at Wildcat around Patriot's Day and the snow was the deepest I've ever seen there...silly amounts. There wasn't much in Jackson though.

[wxeyeNH]

Rain has come to an end.  Models were right on.  .15"

Snowcover is still around 80% in my hood with the exception of our south facing fields.  30-35 deer are around the house at the moment.  Hard to count as so many are running around.   Quick webcam clip I just made

https://video.nest.com/clip/e5e3798575b04e3ea33c4900604316cc.mp4

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Rain has come to an end.  Models were right on.  .15"

Snowcover is still around 80% in my hood with the exception of our south facing fields.  30-35 deer are around the house at the moment.  Hard to count as so many are running around.   Quick webcam clip I just made

https://video.nest.com/clip/e5e3798575b04e3ea33c4900604316cc.mp4

Holy crap, lol.  I love the wildlife you see in your yard.  I thought 3 deer outside this morning here was interesting... you’ve got a whole herd, ha.  

[#NoPoles]

Snow along the rt 302 corridor is melting fast. Those 2 days we had in the 60s, especially the over night where it stayed above 50 really primed the pack and got the melting started. Even though it went back to cold weather, the sun is doing a good job. Today was light rain and damp all day...

[alex]

It’s flurrying. Yey. (Lol)

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

R/s line was hovering around 3,000’ during the day today in SVT. Here at my house at 1400’ precip ended before we got any colder air in. Based on some pretty heavy rates after I left the mountain there should be something like 6” above 3500’. Still plenty of snow left even at 1400 with 100% coverage and an average of about 12”. (North facing)

[backedgeapproaching]

Encroaching on all time March rat territory locally at Peru VT coop.

Only .4" so far, going to need something to pop late month or this will be lowest March in 80 years of data.  State record 24 hr snow in DEC and lowest March total ever possibly..some wild swings.

 

 

[bwt3650]

I was just looking at the Mt. Mansfield snow stake date.  I didn't realize how much of a ratter snow total wise this year has been.  It def felt like a decent 6 week winter period right when it should be, but if you look at the data, besides 15-16, there really hasn't been a worse year snow total wise in the last 25 or so years.

[PhineasC]

36 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I was just looking at the Mt. Mansfield snow stake date.  I didn't realize how much of a ratter snow total wise this year has been.  It def felt like a decent 6 week winter period right when it should be, but if you look at the data, besides 15-16, there really hasn't been a worse year snow total wise in the last 25 or so years.

Glad I was not going crazy when I said it felt like a pretty down year for snowfall across NNE just based on the averages and the very long stretches of almost nothing.

[tamarack]

22 hours ago, Angus said:

In 2007, the ski season was done in late March. I believe during the second week of April it started snowing in the mountains and didn't stop. My son remembers skiing at BW Easter weekend with feet and feet of new snow on the ground when only the week before there had been discussions about not bothering to go due to lack of snow. We skied at Wildcat around Patriot's Day and the snow was the deepest I've ever seen there...silly amounts. There wasn't much in Jackson though.

That last is surprising, given how much snow that April brought, even at low elevations.  The storms of 4-5, 12-13 and 16-18 racked up 32-35" total at my place and the 2 nearest co-ops, though the last one also had a pile of cold rain.  (And an estimated 4-5 feet at Sugarloaf summit where it was all snow.)

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I was just looking at the Mt. Mansfield snow stake date.  I didn't realize how much of a ratter snow total wise this year has been.  It def felt like a decent 6 week winter period right when it should be, but if you look at the data, besides 15-16, there really hasn't been a worse year snow total wise in the last 25 or so years.

Snow depth or snow total?  The Mansfield stake doesn't have snow total information, just depth data.  The previous snow total data is very inaccurate due to collection methods.

As I think J.Spin and I have said plenty of times though the higher summits have taken the brunt of it... down where people live the totals aren't that bad or that far off.  This has been the best skiing on record for those snow depths at the stake.  Everyone commenting this season how 48" was skiing like 80".  The low elevation snowpack is what does that.... it was pretty solid down low.  I figure I'll end up around 100" on the season off an average of 120"... probably within 1 S.D. (so normal).

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Glad I was not going crazy when I said it felt like a pretty down year for snowfall across NNE just based on the averages and the very long stretches of almost nothing.

Yeah March is going to kill it.  It was on pace for above normal here even into like late February I think.  BTV was pacing on normal or above normal until March 1st.

Still out of the last decade it's better than 2011-12 and 15-16 for sure.... and had one of the longest durations without a thaw/rain for skiing than I can remember, with decent snowfall where people live around here.

 

 

[bwt3650]

Na, I think we agree completely about the skiing.  Good mid-winter, very few thaw/freeze cycles and the powder held in the woods well this year.  It is snow depth, not totals.  I think for me its more that I'm surprised that it didn't "feel" as low as the depths and totals were.  If you asked the average ski/boarder who's not a snow weenie, I think they would never have known the depth was near a 25 year low.  And where I am, if there is decent pack preservation, I don't think you notice the difference between 250" and 350".  There was a solid 36" base for weeks, even at my place at 1850.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah March is going to kill it.  It was on pace for above normal here even into like late February I think.  BTV was pacing on normal or above normal until March 1st.

Still out of the last decade it's better than 2011-12 and 15-16 for sure.... and had one of the longest durations without a thaw/rain for skiing than I can remember, with decent snowfall where people live around here.

 

 

Yep, definitely not the worst and redeemable from a ski season perspective. I have skied 4-5 days a week since the start of Jan and I had very, very few crappy days where I was just like "forget it out here" and those were due to wind/cold not snow conditions.

[bwt3650]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah March is going to kill it.  It was on pace for above normal here even into like late February I think.  BTV was pacing on normal or above normal until March 1st.

Still out of the last decade it's better than 2011-12 and 15-16 for sure.... and had one of the longest durations without a thaw/rain for skiing than I can remember, with decent snowfall where people live around here.

 

 

Unfortunately, I think its going to be struggle to go deep into April though with the lack of recent snow.  Next week and those cutters are going to hurt.