NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[#NoPoles]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Are you in the restaurant business?

Vacation rentals

[PhineasC]

Couple little bursts of more snow now but still mostly just blowing away rather than stacking up. 

[J.Spin]

18 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The moose is constipated.  At some point he'll release his gas.  Probably when no one expects it.

It’s not an everyday setup to get our snow involving wraparound from a low way up there in NL, but clearly a lot of the guidance was missing something in this one.  In the BTV NWS discussions yesterday, they talked about some of the factors:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

936 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 931 AM EST Friday...Latest forecast soundings and observations continue to show a plethora of dry air within the lowest levels of the atmosphere. In addition, the 12Z NAM no longer shows a moisture saturated DGZ with very weak lift residing within the DGZ. Given these trends, we have continued to lower snow totals across the region with less than 1 inch expected below 1000 ft, 1-3 inches between 1000 and 2000 ft and 3 to 5 inches above 2000 ft. If the dry air continues to hold strong, which is quite likely, snowfall amounts will be reduced further with the early afternoon update.

 

When the spine disappeared and that first pulse hit the mountains on Thursday afternoon, it seemed like it was the start of typical upslope event, but that first portion of the storm from Friday into Thursday was the only one that gave us any measurable accumulation here at our site.  From Friday into today it was just an additional trace.  I find that the BTV NWS is reasonably conservative with respect to putting out their alerts, so for them to put out some Winter Weather Advisories means that they felt the potential was there.

There’s still moisture around this weekend for some potential flakes, and then the next impulse in the stream seems to be in the Tuesday timeframe.  That’s pretty marginal at this point because it’s only on some guidance, so we’ll have to see what the trends are with that:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 324 AM EST Saturday... a weak shortwave trough moves through the early morning hours on Tuesday and looks to bring maybe a few flakes across the area. Models disagree on if the bulk of the precipitation stays across the international border, but either way this looks to be a rather minor event.

[Hitman]

i see skies of blue......

[J.Spin]

9 minutes ago, Hitman said:

i see skies of blue......

We had a few areas of blue earlier, but it’s clouded up a bit more as of late and we’ve got some snow falling.  That low pressure is still around up there in NL, so apparently waves of moisture will still affect the area:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 658 AM EST Saturday...

 

This weekend will feature quiet and cold weather. Upper level low over Newfoundland will remain parked through early Sunday morning. Will have several waves of moisture drop south across our area, bringing mainly an increase in clouds but also some light mountain snow showers, especially in western facing slopes of Dacks and Greens as flow is largely out of the west.

[Hitman]

13 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

We had a few areas of blue earlier, but it’s clouded up a bit more as of late and we’ve got some snow falling.  That low pressure is still around up there in NL, so apparently waves of moisture will still affect the area:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 658 AM EST Saturday...

 

This weekend will feature quiet and cold weather. Upper level low over Newfoundland will remain parked through early Sunday morning. Will have several waves of moisture drop south across our area, bringing mainly an increase in clouds but also some light mountain snow showers, especially in western facing slopes of Dacks and Greens as flow is largely out of the west.

Too funny.  Saw your post so I went out to check and sure enough there’s some exceedingly light snow falling.

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

It’s not an everyday setup to get our snow involving wraparound from a low way up there in NL, but clearly a lot of the guidance was missing something in this one.  In the BTV NWS discussions yesterday, they talked about some of the factors:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

936 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 931 AM EST Friday...Latest forecast soundings and observations continue to show a plethora of dry air within the lowest levels of the atmosphere. In addition, the 12Z NAM no longer shows a moisture saturated DGZ with very weak lift residing within the DGZ. Given these trends, we have continued to lower snow totals across the region with less than 1 inch expected below 1000 ft, 1-3 inches between 1000 and 2000 ft and 3 to 5 inches above 2000 ft. If the dry air continues to hold strong, which is quite likely, snowfall amounts will be reduced further with the early afternoon update.

 

When the spine disappeared and that first pulse hit the mountains on Thursday afternoon, it seemed like it was the start of typical upslope event, but that first portion of the storm from Friday into Thursday was the only one that gave us any measurable accumulation here at our site.  From Friday into today it was just an additional trace.  I find that the BTV NWS is reasonably conservative with respect to putting out their alerts, so for them to put out some Winter Weather Advisories means that they felt the potential was there.

There’s still moisture around this weekend for some potential flakes, and then the next impulse in the stream seems to be in the Tuesday timeframe.  That’s pretty marginal at this point because it’s only on some guidance, so we’ll have to see what the trends are with that:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 324 AM EST Saturday... a weak shortwave trough moves through the early morning hours on Tuesday and looks to bring maybe a few flakes across the area. Models disagree on if the bulk of the precipitation stays across the international border, but either way this looks to be a rather minor event.

Tuesday looks like warm air advection so probably correct on mesos

[wxeyeNH]

Beautiful morning in the NH foothills.  Bright sun is making it feel, well not as cold...

Sorry to everyone on the other side of the mountains stuck in clouds.  This is when I enjoy living on my side.  Cloudy spring weather north of me and days and days of sunshine here.

Snowpack is at 11" and it has a lot of water in it.  I am hoping that 3 or 4 days of warm weather at least melt some bare spots on my southern slopes.  Last night 17 deer wandered around looking for anything to eat but it's hard digging through glaciated snow

[alex]

I can wholeheartedly say this was the worst “upslope” episode of the winter. While we weren’t expecting much, all we got was a few days in the single digits and teens, a dusting and not a ray of sun. At least the snowpack is strong enough that you can walk on it without sinking for the most part, which makes it easy as we prepare for tapping. When you do sink though, it hurts lol. 

[mreaves]

Did some riding in PF’s hood today. Lots of snow up in the hills between Stowe, Morrisville, Johnson and Jeffersonville. 

 

[mreaves]

Met these guys getting ready to hit the trail. 
Edit to add: Sled dogs.  The musher said she had 19 in the truck  

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I wonder if some NNE sites can make a run at record low snowfall for March? Looks like at least half of the month will go by with basically zilch.

 

8 hours ago, tamarack said:

Farmington co-op recorded only traces in March 1905 and again in 1946 - be hard to beat that, especially as they probably recorded some frozen on the 1st this year.  My lowest here, and since moving to Maine in Jan. 1973, is 0.6" in 2010, also my mildest March here.  I'd say 1 in 10 chance we get less than that.

Yeah, March 2010 is the lowest March snowfall I’ve seen here as well, with just 2.1” of snow, and the only other one in that neighborhood was March 2016 with 5.7” of snow.

You really need a March that is mostly sunny and mild to get low numbers like 2010, and it has to be low on storms in general too.  At this latitude, and especially in the mountains, March is a wintry month.  Even if the storm takes a track that puts us in the warm sector, we’ll often get some accumulation on the back side, and it only takes a few of those to at least pull together several inches.

Those two months are pretty good examples of the different possibilities I mentioned – that 2.1” of snow for March 2010 came in just one accumulating storm, so that really had to be a month that was either super warm and/or bereft of storms.  On the other hand, the 5.7” for March 2016 came from five different storms, and it looks like it was just sort of a warm month with some storms that tracked to the west of us and gave minimal snowfall.

This month hasn’t felt like either of those at this point, reinforced by the fact that I was skiing in the teens F up at the mountain this afternoon.  We’d also already surpassed the total snowfall for both of those months here at our site by March 3^rd.  This month just hasn’t seemed like those types of Marches, at least up to this point.

I grabbed the CoCoRaHS snowfall data for Phin’s neighbor and pasted it below, and even in those poor Marches, that site pulled in at least double digit snowfall.  That’s really impressive.  And look at the March and April averages for that site – they indicate that you’re looking at close to 50” of snowfall still to go in an average winter.

Phin, It’s probably hard to imagine that sort of snowfall when you’re looking at the models for an obvious, synoptic, all-snow system that’s going to dump on your place.  But I step through the operational run of the GFS and see seven systems with chances for snow.  And yeah, things aren’t going to play out exactly like that so far out on an operational run, but it looks pretty active.

Do watch out though in the main March thread – it can kind of bias one’s outlook at this point in the season if the tenor remains SNE-centric.  Most of them want to be done with snowfall at this point unless something fairly big pops up, and they’re generally looking for warmth to melt the snow and move on.

 

March Snowfall at CoCoRaHS site NH-CS-10

Year     Snowfall

2010    16.8

2011    52.8

2012    21.1

2013    36.8

2014    34.4

2015    18.1

2016    12.8

2017    43.5

2018    52.2

2019    32.4

2020    16.7

2021    ???

           

Mean   30.7

S.D.     14.6

 

 

April Snowfall at CoCoRaHS site NH-CS-10   

Year     Snowfall

2010    24.9

2011    26.4

2012    7.3

2013    8.8

2014    5.2

2015    17.2

2016    9.0

2017    19.7

2018    19.3

2019    12.8

2020    37.7

2021    ???

           

Mean   17.1

S.D.     9.9

[PhineasC]

I can see the second half of March being active. I hope it delivers. Skiing is still wonderful so not ready to pack in winter just yet!

[powderfreak]

J.Spin pep talk time while Phin is looking at those numbers and can’t fathom how to get there.

The other thing though, it is only an 11-year POR so it’s still hard to completely see what the floor or ceiling of climo is there.

Theres probably some 80-inch March (like 2001 at the Eden, VT COOP) or a 5-6” March on the low end.  Just need to spread out the POR.

But winter is a LONG way from over in the northern mountains.

[Hitman]

Great day on the hill today.  Stayed in the trees.

[PhineasC]

Down by cranmore tonight. They have the lights on. I do miss night skiing. Will need to try to schedule it but hate fighting crowds on the weekends. We only ski when there is zero lift line. LOL

[alex]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Down by cranmore tonight. They have the lights on. I do miss night skiing. Will need to try to schedule it but hate fighting crowds on the weekends. We only ski when there is zero lift line. LOL

For a fun night skiing place, try Shawnee Peak. Not far from Conway and a really nice setup

[PhineasC]

Light snow at 13 degrees. 

[PhineasC]

20 minutes ago, alex said:

For a fun night skiing place, try Shawnee Peak. Not far from Conway and a really nice setup

Yep, plan to check it out. 

[powderfreak]

Some flurries out there.  A few fluffy, large snow flakes being incredibly lazy flurries floating off the peaks into the valley.

[Skivt2]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I can see the second half of March being active. I hope it delivers. Skiing is still wonderful so not ready to pack in winter just yet!

March and April are actually two of my favorite months to ski.  Often we are really just getting started with glory days. Generally we are looking at snow or sun and warmth.  The pack is deep.  Lots for groomers to work with so even the cold dry period are fun fast days with lots of terrain.  

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, Hitman said:

Great day on the hill today.  Stayed in the trees.

It would have been great if that second upslope system had delivered more than an inch or two, but putting that on top of the 9” from the midweek event has definitely kept the off piste conditions respectable at Bolton.  I see they’re reporting 11” in the past week, and the bulk of that must be the sum of those two events.  Not surprisingly, that powder has settled a bit, and that actually helps out somewhat with respect to how it skis.  When that first round had fallen on Wednesday, it really was so incredibly dry that you sank right through it and got down to that relatively firm subsurface, but the settling, and the addition of a couple more inches that wasn’t quite as dry, gives you a bit more underfoot to cushion things.

I was hearing noise from skiers and riders even on low angle groomed terrain today, and it wasn’t as if it was horribly icy, but the noise revealed that there was at least something firm there.  It could just be a traffic issue on the groomed slopes – I’m not sure how much L.E. the mountain ultimately got from the two rounds of snow, but it probably wasn’t more than a quarter of an inch, and that’s only going to hold up so long with on piste skier traffic.

Like you, I focused my time in the trees today, and I found the conditions there were far superior to the groomed terrain.  I spent my time exploring more of the sidecountry off Wilderness that I’d visited last Saturday.  There was plenty of snow for good powder turns on low-angle terrain, and even moderate and steep terrain weren’t too bad where people had skied and sort of packed the new snow into the base.  The trees were the place to be though – the snow was protected from the wind in there, and I’d say there was plenty that had been blow off the trails as well.

Temperatures were in the mid-teens F when I was out this afternoon, which is certainly nothing to complain about in terms of cold, but there was plenty of wind around, especially up high.  We had some peeks of sun, but in general it was cloudy with some light flakes in the air, and it just sort of had the feel of a hum drum midwinter day.  Being in the trees meant that I was out of the wind, but as others have been expressing, I could certainly use some warmth.  I definitely found myself missing the nice temperatures up around the freezing mark that I encountered last Saturday, even if that storm did bring a touch of mixed precipitation.

I’ve got a few shots from today’s outing below – I definitely like how the shot of the BV Hotel reveals the numerous layers in the snowpack from the past couple of months of winter storms:

[powderfreak]

Nice standing waves rolling off Mansfield.  This is looking east from 1,500ft.

 

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, March 2010 is the lowest March snowfall I’ve seen here as well, with just 2.1” of snow, and the only other one in that neighborhood was March 2016 with 5.7” of snow.

You really need a March that is mostly sunny and mild to get low numbers like 2010, and it has to be low on storms in general too.  At this latitude, and especially in the mountains, March is a wintry month.  Even if the storm takes a track that puts us in the warm sector, we’ll often get some accumulation on the back side, and it only takes a few of those to at least pull together several inches.

2010 doesn't quite fit that profile, as it was about average for sun/cloud and its 6.44" precip is 2nd only to 1999.  That earlier month had 7.91" and 32.2" SN, with 3 big rain events and snows of 14.5" and 14".  Worth noting that only 0.30" of 2010 precip came prior to the equinox.  2010 never got especially warm - max was 64 - but also never got cold - lowest was 11 and it's our only March without a subzero morning.  Contrast that with the slightly less mild 2012 in which temps ranged from 80 to -10.  That 90° span is the most I've recorded anywhere/any month.  (2nd place is Jan. 1979 in Ft. Kent with 40/-47.)

I can wholeheartedly say this was the worst “upslope” episode of the winter. While we weren’t expecting much, all we got was a few days in the single digits and teens, a dusting and not a ray of sun. At least the snowpack is strong enough that you can walk on it without sinking for the most part, which makes it easy as we prepare for tapping. When you do sink though, it hurts lol. 

Mostly easy snowshoeing on the woodlot yesterday, though some places had lost that last little storm and were surfaced by polished ice from the 2//16 sleetfest.  (My racquets are modified beavertails made of ash and strung with nylon - no ice-grippers.)  Few deer tracks post-sleet but some bobcat prints and a scat, and considerable coyote sign.

[J.Spin]

56 minutes ago, tamarack said:

2010 doesn't quite fit that profile, as it was about average for sun/cloud and its 6.44" precip is 2nd only to 1999.  That earlier month had 7.91" and 32.2" SN, with 3 big rain events and snows of 14.5" and 14".  Worth noting that only 0.30" of 2010 precip came prior to the equinox.  2010 never got especially warm - max was 64 - but also never got cold - lowest was 11 and it's our only March without a subzero morning.  Contrast that with the slightly less mild 2012 in which temps ranged from 80 to -10.  That 90° span is the most I've recorded anywhere/any month.  (2nd place is Jan. 1979 in Ft. Kent with 40/-47.)

That’s really interesting to hear about the March precipitation and temperatures.  I don’t track temperatures here at my site, but my records show 3.97” of liquid for the month, which is about average.  What I am seeing in my data is that there was almost no precipitation of any kind before the equinox – just 0.15” of rain.  To go 20+ days here in March with almost nothing in the snow or rain department just makes me think of a sunnier/warmer regime than usual.  It was certainly above freezing to a substantial degree during that period because the snowpack went from over a foot on the 1^st, to nothing by the 15^th.

The snow we did get seems to have come from a long-duration event (or events) from about the 22^nd through the 26^th, and it’s got the look of a lot of moisture with minimal snow due to a warm system, perhaps with just some slushy accumulations down at this elevation.  That is the period when NH-CS-10 picked up a similar amount of snow and liquid (so it must have been very warm), but they’ve also got another snowstorm on the 15^th that brought 8.5” of snow from 2.12” of liquid.  I recorded just the 0.15” of liquid over here during that one, so it must have been something off to the east that was almost a non-even here.

[powderfreak]

What a day.  Starting to warm up and the wind has finally stopped after like 4-5 days of strong NW gales.

[PhineasC]

Southern Exposure Randolph Sledding Hill Conditions Report

Base: 15-18" loose granular

Surface: Extremely firm and fast

Grooming: non-existent

Note: ice-climbing gear recommended

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Southern Exposure Randolph Sledding Hill Conditions Report

Base: 15-18" loose granular

Surface: Extremely firm and fast

Grooming: non-existent

Note: ice-climbing gear recommended

 

 

Pics?

[powderfreak]

Getting to the time of year where snowpack differences start to show up big.

I’ve got 15” of concrete that you can walk on, but parts of the lower village look like they may only have a foot or so.

Then you get higher up and closer to the Spine by a few miles and it’s a healthy 20+ of mushroom caps.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Getting to the time of year where snowpack differences start to show up big.

I’ve got 15” of concrete that you can walk on, but parts of the lower village look like they may only have a foot or so.

Then you get higher up and closer to the Spine by a few miles and it’s a healthy 20+ of mushroom caps.

The part of Stowe we rode through yesterday was a winter wonderland. At least I think we were still in Stowe. Maple Run Lane and the Sterling Forest are the two locations that stick out.