powderfreak Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Modeling showing signs of a decent upslope event tomorrow night, behind that clipper system. Going to be warm with the low going north of us but that cold front behind it looks to bring some decent moisture. 3km NAM brings almost a half inch of water to MVL. Some of this is the usual NAM over doing water on the Spine but it rarely makes it to MVL. 24 hour totals. GFS GGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Tale of two valley towns. Crazy how much of a pit Bennington can be at times. Had to zip down there today for something. It's only a few hundred feet lower than my house where this pic was and also in same valley really, but pretty stark differences. Seemed like they did end up picking up a few inches yesterday though, depth was around 7" there. Bennington Home.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Snow starting to pick up, temp is 33.4F though. Maybe squeak out an inch, maybe two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Jay was a bit crusty, especially up high today seems there was some pesky freezing fog at elevation this morning. Can't tell how much they picked up higher up before the switch to icing but in Montgomery I had like 2 inches of dense snow on my car and no ice this am. I hiked the peak and rode the short unmarked line skier's left of the tram and it seemed like 3-4 fresh on top of the slim ice layer. Lower elevation was actually better snow and didn't have that fog crust, just dense snow. Those maps powderfreak posted look good. I always seem to get lucky with snow up here, I wasn't even going after a storm on this trip and the forecast has consistently increased. Kinda like that Jan 2019 storm I always bring up, the forecast for 1.5ft turned into 3ft+. Wish I was riding with a better partner for that trip, I need better ski buddies.. The two guys I rode with yesterday got rear ended by an 18 wheeler in Southern Vermont on their way back yesterday.. They're dumbass massholes that drive too fast. One went to the hospital in an ambulance. Like I said, I need better friends to ride with that can hang but aren't morons lol.. Glad I opted to drive up myself and stay here, even though my car is still causing trouble. I had a local shop read the code/clear it, just rich condition no misfire or anything. Hoping the CEL/limp mode doesn't come back. Of course the only time I've ever had an issue is when I'm 8 hours from home lol. I have a friend in Burlington I can stay with if I need to take it to dealer on Fri or Saturday so I'm not too concerned. Also I think there's a deeper pack at home in SEPA than in Bennington. Phoenixville yesterday for comparison: 33" in Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Temp back down to 34. Definitely a torch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Tale of two valley towns. Crazy how much of a pit Bennington can be at times. Had to zip down there today for something. It's only a few hundred feet lower than my house where this pic was and also in same valley really, but pretty stark differences. Seemed like they did end up picking up a few inches yesterday though, depth was around 7" there. Bennington Home.. Bennington has always been a pit... remember it well driving from ALB to the ski areas. That monument but especially out by the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 23, 2021 Author Share Posted February 23, 2021 We haven't had any real cold mornings this winter. The 18Z GFS has it a bit chilly early next week. I'm sure this is way over done but something to watch as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Models say it will be active over the next 7-10 days at least. Temps will be swinging around so we will need some timing help to avoid rain and get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Pounding close to S+ out there with some big flakage...wont last long. Tomorrow will feel weird with mid 40's and showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 6 hours ago, radarman said: That's a pretty impressive ULL passage on the GFS on Monday night. N Greens lookout I would think should that come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Modeling showing signs of a decent upslope event tomorrow night, behind that clipper system. Going to be warm with the low going north of us but that cold front behind it looks to bring some decent moisture. 3km NAM brings almost a half inch of water to MVL. Some of this is the usual NAM over doing water on the Spine but it rarely makes it to MVL. 24 hour totals. GFS GGEM Impressive liquid up by me. Nam picking up on rime or just doing the nam thing? Either way, should be good for close to a foot by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Impressive liquid up by me. Nam picking up on rime or just doing the nam thing? Either way, should be good for close to a foot by the end of the week. It’s likely doing it’s over-done rime as QPF but it’s also showing some decent precip. This time of year we often lose the complete high ratio stuff with warmer 850mb temps in some of these events... but on the flip side they can produce more QPF with higher PWATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Getting a steady light snow albeit very wet. Not sticking to anything but old snow and the evergreens are showing some white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Picked up 1.6" today. Roads actually became a mess with that quick upslope hit around 6-630. 8.5" past 2 days. That might be it for little while down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Nice upslope snow here past hour. Hope this keeps up all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 9 hours ago, PhineasC said: Torching here today with nearly full sun. 37 degrees. Same...spring is creeping in. I dont mind. Winter is long up here. The smallest signs of spring come right at the time the brain usually says- I've had enough of the cold and dark days...the bird songs are changing, and becoming more enthusiastic...let's move into tapping season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot21 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Was 32 and some light snow when I got home at 4. Still snowing now but not adding up to hardly anything, looks like a half inch at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Been getting nice upslope snow showers for a few hours now. 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Private weather station temperatures have been holding in the low to mid-30s. The earlier snowfall still was melting during the break... this current round started whitening things up again. It's a marginal situation at 750ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.05” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.0 Snow Density: 12.5% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm) Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.06” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 35.8 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Had about 0.5 inches of wet snow between 5-12pm last night in Montgomery. Jay reported 3-5 but I'm not sure how accurate that is. I'm gonna rest today I got that virtual appointment at 2pm. As long as things don't ice up and the mountains stay snow I think tomorrow will be nice and right-side up with the temp dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froude Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 The air feels different this morning. 42 degrees, birds chirping, and full sunshine here in Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 23 hours ago, MRVexpat said: How high up on Big Jay were you able to get? In my experience the going gets really tough up above about 2800-3000 feet and to summit I'd guess you'd have to boot pack? I've also never skinned the ridge between Big and Little Jay basins so that may be the way to go. Its why I almost prefer Little Jay if coming from 242. You get nearly to the summit without much hassle and its a shorter approach as well. I could definitely see the convenience with respect to the Little Jay when coming from that lower parking lot on Route 242. Last time I was up there with the family in the general Big Jay Basin area, we actually did head more toward Little Jay, and we were in that drainage between Big Jay and Little Jay. I went on Saturday with the intention of just making turns in Big Jay Basin, but I left the option open to head up toward the main lines from Big Jay (in that general Jailbird Chute area) depending on what skin tracks were in place. There turned out to be a well-established skin track that headed right to that area, so my plan was to continue on it until it either disappeared, or I felt that ascending on skins was getting pointless. It’s interesting to note that on Saturday, somewhere above 2,000’ I found the first obvious split in the skin track – I literally came to a “T” junction with a skin track to the left, and the other option to the right. I was heading to the right toward Big Jay Basin, but the left option would have been a good choice for the Little Jay area. It was a totally different situation on Sunday though – there had been a lot more skier traffic, so there were skin tracks and descent tracks all over the place and the obvious distinction of those skin track routes had been obliterated. As I approached the 3,000’ elevation mark on Big Jay on Saturday, the ascent was starting to get pretty silly on skins because progress was just so slow. It was around that point when I found myself sidestepping up a steep, narrow area between some trees where the person setting the skin track had essentially done the same. It was basically just a ski’s width area, so you really couldn’t even make any sort of switchback. That was the point where I knew I wasn’t going to push too much longer on the ascent. The skin track still continued a bit farther, and I stuck with it a little while longer until the track really just became hard to follow in the packed snow of the main chute area. I followed a skin track (perhaps the same one, perhaps not) off to climber’s right briefly before that seemed to disappear, and then I decided I would stop my ascent as soon as I found a reasonable spot for deskinning. I side-stepped up about an extra 30 feet or so through fairly deep powder to a nice sheltered spot where I deskinned and had a snack. I’d been there for just a few minutes when a group of five skiers, ascending on skins, appeared below me. They said hi, and thanked me for setting the skin track. I let them know that I was just following an old one made by others and was stopping where I was. It seemed like they were just going to stop there as well, but they started breaking their own trail above me and continued pushing on. I actually debated putting my skins back on and following now that someone else was breaking trail, but after watching them get maybe another 50 feet or so over the course of 5 to 10 minutes, I knew I’d made the right choice. As a group, I think they were having fun together with respect to the challenge of trying it on skins, and that’s probably the way to approach it. I wanted to get back down into the lower basin because the powder skiing was far better down there anyway, simply because it’s just so steep up on that face of Big Jay. You’re not getting bottomless turns up there unless there’s 2 to 3 feet of powder. The 12-16” of champagne was really nice up there, but you want even more for that upper terrain. Overall it’s some fantastic steep skiing of course, but I was on fat Tele gear and planning for undisturbed powder on more blueish and blackish pitches, not semi-tracked super steeps. So where I topped out was in the 3,000’ – 3,100’ elevation range, and I’d argue that it was already boot pack territory. Boot packing up there would also be quite slow though because you’re pushing up very steep terrain with lots of powder. It would be a serious slog through the snow once you were off your skis if someone hadn’t already broken trail, although you could stick to the more packed snow in some of the main chutes and that might offer some efficiency. I don’t know how far that group of five went, but if they were going all the way to the summit at ~3,800’, it must have been a lot of work. I’m sure one can make it up to the Big Jay summit by skinning that route, but it’s probably something to do if you’ve got a lot of time and want the challenge, it’s certainly not the efficient way to go. I do wonder if there’s an approach from the Little Jay side that perhaps gets it done in a practical way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 30 minutes ago, J.Spin said: So where I topped out was in the 3,000’ – 3,100’ elevation range, and I’d argue that it was already boot pack territory. Boot packing up there would also be quite slow though because you’re pushing up very steep terrain with lots of powder. It would be a serious slog through the snow once you were off your skis if someone hadn’t already broken trail, although you could stick to the more packed snow in some of the main chutes and that might offer some efficiency. I don’t know how far that group of five went, but if they were going all the way to the summit at ~3,800’, it must have been a lot of work. I’m sure one can make it up to the Big Jay summit by skinning that route, but it’s probably something to do if you’ve got a lot of time and want the challenge, it’s certainly not the efficient way to go. I do wonder if there’s an approach from the Little Jay side that perhaps gets it done in a practical way. Thanks for the detailed description! Yeah I think we've had similar experiences. If your objective is to ski as much powder as possible, the effort to vertical ratio just isn't there above 3k if you're going straight up the face of Big Jay. The trees are plenty steep in that 2400-3000' range anyways to make a lap or two super rewarding. A friend of mine actually booted up the last 700' or so just a few days before you did and said it was really slow going, for the reasons you described. That top part is sweet on alpine gear, but probably not worth it unless you're coming from the ski area. The bolded part is what I'm really interested in. I wonder how much progress could be made by zigging and zagging up the south facing ridgeline that separates the Big and Little Jay basins. Will have to find out someday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Last night, starting around 5pm and continuing overnight- .3inches of snow measured on behalf of Alex. As of noon today, Alex's weather station had the temp at 43 degrees Tap those maples! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Got up to 41.5° but back down to 37.5° now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 2 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Last night, starting around 5pm and continuing overnight- .3inches of snow measured on behalf of Alex. As of noon today, Alex's weather station had the temp at 43 degrees Tap those maples! My first 40F of 2021. Acclamation is amazing. Just doing some errands today and didn't bother with a coat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 48.2F. Beginning of the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Max 45.7°. Cold for next week is looking like nbd. Just gotta bridge the gap to mid March to avoid the last chances for extreme cold and then we can cheer on a blue bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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