NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[backedgeapproaching]

21 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm sitting at 32F which is slightly above average.   Just a guess but 23F is slightly above average for you on the coldest week of the year.  Just a guess.  Wish there was better long term data in the Whites.  Maybe someone knows?

Berlin NH avg is 26.7F/1.5F for 1/18.   So shave a few degrees off for his location, not sure how much you would take off.  Maybe 5F?

Interesting looking at Berlin data, 50% of the lows are below 0F for this date.  Guess that makes sense since the average is 1.5F

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Berlin NH avg is 26.7F/1.5F for 1/18.   So shave a few degrees off for his location, not sure how much you would take off.  Maybe 5F?

Interesting looking at Berlin data, 50% of the lows are below 0F for this date.  Guess that makes sense since the average is 1.5F

I’m usually 5-7 below them for high temps. Sometimes a little more or less. They radiate better than me on clear nights. It never gets super cold here on those nights. Always breezy. 

[PhineasC]

I really can’t imagine what one of those 250” winters with 50-60” depth would look like based on what I am seeing today. Must be epic. 

[backedgeapproaching]

1.9" overnight with snow continuing most of today--although not adding up to much other then some wintry appeal.  Maybe a few tenths.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I really can’t imagine what one of those 250” winters with 50-60” depth would look like based on what I am seeing today. Must be epic. 

There's probably a threshold where it kind all looks the same--like 44" might not look that different than 58".  Anything over 2ft looks pretty beastly to me.

[PhineasC]

Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

There's probably a threshold where it kind all looks the same--like 44" might not look that different than 58".  Anything over 2ft looks pretty beastly to me.

The plow piles on my driveway must be huge though. I can’t believe how tall they are already. 

[SJonesWX]

2 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

There's probably a threshold where it kind all looks the same--like 44" might not look that different than 58".  Anything over 2ft looks pretty beastly to me.

agree with you. for example, once the snowbanks get huge, it's hard to tell the amount of snow, because they just stay huge.

sometimes you can only tell by the amount of snow on the roof. like, on a canopy over a front door where it just stacks up.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 12.0” Snow/1.59” L.E.

 

The additional snow that fell this morning was just like what had fallen earlier – right in that 3.5-4.0% H2O range.  It’s a piece of cake to shovel, or you could clear it with a leaf blower as well.  Or, just pack it down; it compresses quite easily of course.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7

Snow Density: 3.8% H2O

Temperature: 30.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches

[backedgeapproaching]

8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

agree with you. for example, once the snowbanks get huge, it's hard to tell the amount of snow, because they just stay huge.

sometimes you can only tell by the amount of snow on the roof. like, on a canopy over a front door where it just stacks up.

Yea, roof stack is a good indicator if its been stacking up nicely without a lot of wind events over the course of a winter.  

[wx2fish]

Quite the difference in temps up there between the upslope/downslope regions today. Cold is definitely deeper to the north, but its pretty wild. Mid-upper 30s south of the Whites, mid 20s at BML, and down to 15 in Pittsburg. 

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Quite the difference in temps up there between the upslope/downslope regions today. Cold is definitely deeper to the north, but its pretty wild. Mid-upper 30s south of the Whites, mid 20s at BML, and down to 15 in Pittsburg. 

22 here now. 

[dendrite]

40 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Quite the difference in temps up there between the upslope/downslope regions today. Cold is definitely deeper to the north, but its pretty wild. Mid-upper 30s south of the Whites, mid 20s at BML, and down to 15 in Pittsburg. 

Front seems to be coming through here now. Decent snow shower and dropping through the lower 30s.

[dendrite]

It doesn't get much more putrid than this for the first half of the heart of winter. Just wretched after the cutter.

12/24 50.8  22.4 0.02       0.0 13
12/25 57.9  39.4 1.39       0.0  7
12/26 40.1  24.7    T         T  T
12/27 34.7  22.3 0.00       0.0  0
12/28 37.1  21.5 0.01       0.2  0
12/29 36.2  16.9 0.00       0.0  0
12/30 34.6  15.8 0.00       0.0  0
12/31 39.7  27.9 0.01         T  0
01/01 34.2  24.0    T         T  0
01/02 35.7  26.9 0.51       1.6  1
01/03 29.6  18.8 0.03       0.5  1
01/04 34.6  25.4    T         T  1
01/05 32.4  25.5 0.00       0.0  1
01/06 31.8  25.8 0.00       0.0  1
01/07 32.0  21.9 0.00       0.0  1
01/08 30.3  18.6 0.00       0.0  1
01/09 31.0  17.1 0.00       0.0  1
01/10 33.3  20.3 0.00       0.0  1
01/11 30.3  14.2    T         T  1
01/12 35.2  18.9 0.00       0.0  1
01/13 34.1  28.3 0.00       0.0  1
01/14 33.5  27.0 0.00       0.0  1
01/15 40.4  25.7 0.00       0.0  1
01/16 42.3  31.6 1.45         T  1
01/17 37.4  31.8 0.00       0.0  T
01/18 37.5  30.3    T         T  T

 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

There's probably a threshold where it kind all looks the same--like 44" might not look that different than 58".  Anything over 2ft looks pretty beastly to me.

Yeah that's what I think of as far as looking at NNE fields and woods.  Once the corn stalks are covered in the fields, it's all the same.  The field behind my place looks the same at 8" as it does at 30" lol.  It's just white.  Of course your brain knows the difference but if you take a photo of one, and then a photo of the other, it's just a snow covered flat expanse ha.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Quite the difference in temps up there between the upslope/downslope regions today. Cold is definitely deeper to the north, but its pretty wild. Mid-upper 30s south of the Whites, mid 20s at BML, and down to 15 in Pittsburg. 

I noticed it on the models yesterday... there was a pretty good push of H85 and 925mb cold that gets hung up across the northern third for a bit today before another surge tries to drop it south a bit.

It finally feels "cold" ish today.

20F at 1,500ft and 23F at MVL.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

There's probably a threshold where it kind all looks the same--like 44" might not look that different than 58".  Anything over 2ft looks pretty beastly to me.

We found a threshold in Feb-Mar 1984 in NW Maine - had to stop boundary maintenance because all the old evidence was buried.  Measured 80" depth on 3/15 at Big 20 Twp.

Average temp here is similar to Berlin, 24.8/3.3, though it's "live", changing a bit with each new entry.  Temps currently bottom out on the 21st at 24.3/2.2.  (Better than my 10-yr avg at Fort Kent, which dropped to 11/-12 on 1/15.  That's 3° lower than the town's 75-year POR at the Water Company co-op site but only 0.6° lower for my 10 years there - 76-85.)

[PhineasC]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's what I think of as far as looking at NNE fields and woods.  Once the corn stalks are covered in the fields, it's all the same.  The field behind my place looks the same at 8" as it does at 30" lol.  It's just white.  Of course your brain knows the difference but if you take a photo of one, and then a photo of the other, it's just a snow covered flat expanse ha.

I assume it can be seen on the paths that are cut to porches and for walkways. 

[J.Spin]

I’ve updated the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Malcolm as of today.  Things have leveled off up and down the state for the most part, with the storm totals in the Northern and Central Greens typically in the 18-20” range along the spine, and a couple of standouts like Killington and Middlebury nearing the 2-foot mark.  Heading south from Okemo, storm totals generally appear to be in the 14-16” range, except for Stratton, which really stands out with the 24” number.  The accumulation there must be highly localized because geographically, Stratton is extremely close to Bromley and Magic.

 

Jay Peak: 19”

Burke: 9”

Smuggler’s Notch: 19”

Stowe: 19”

Bolton Valley: 19”

Mad River Glen: 19”

Sugarbush: 20”

Middlebury: 24”

Suicide Six: 9”

Pico: 23”

Killington: 23”

Okemo: 16”

Bromley: 17”

Magic Mountain: 16”

Stratton: 24”

Mount Snow: 14”

[backedgeapproaching]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

We found a threshold in Feb-Mar 1984 in NW Maine - had to stop boundary maintenance because all the old evidence was buried.  Measured 80" depth on 3/15 at Big 20 Twp.

Average temp here is similar to Berlin, 24.8/3.3, though it's "live", changing a bit with each new entry.  Temps currently bottom out on the 21st at 24.3/2.2.  (Better than my 10-yr avg at Fort Kent, which dropped to 11/-12 on 1/15.  That's 3° lower than the town's 75-year POR at the Water Company co-op site but only 0.6° lower for my 10 years there - 76-85.)

80" might do it as far as realizing its obscene.

When I was in the PNW in FEB 2008  depth was 120"-150"  up at Snoqualmie pass.--certainly noticeable-ha.  You could tell it wasn't your average 2-4ft.  Houses buried up to the second story at the base of the Summit of Snoqulamie ski area.  

[J.Spin]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What a weenie 00z GFS run for this week at the ski areas.

It snows almost daily, bringing another 1” QPF to the mountains over about 4 events in 7 days... at cold temperatures.

850mb temps are in the sweet spot for fluffy orographic snows, probably the one time the Kuchie maps should be closer to reality.

We know what image a total precipitation forecast map like that calls for, but I'm not quite as suicidal as you to be posting any sort of stuff regarding prognostications for the upcoming week in the main pattern thread.

 

[J.Spin]

16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

17” on Mansfield and at least 1.50” water, if not more.  It was real thick, even the upslope wasn’t pure pow.  Temps stayed warm, even today was like 30F at 1500ft.

Its been snowing lightly all evening so the mountain may make a run at 20”.  The snow depth finally hit 30”, with a gain of 16” so far from this storm.  This was a game changer with very minimal settling and all meat.  Very thick.  Now we can add some fluff to it since there’s a decent base.

That looks like the biggest jump of the season for the Mansfield snowpack depth.  It’s still below average of course, but this coming week could help a bit if more of the typical bread and butter storms roll through.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

We know what image a total precipitation forecast map like that calls for, but I'm not quite as suicidal as you to be posting any sort of stuff regarding prognostications for the upcoming week in the main pattern thread.

 

 

 

 

With this big pot roast pack here, I am all set with the 1-2 inches a day refresher stuff. Bring it on. Only thing missing still is some deep cold. At least a brief shot would be good. This week will deliver some cold at least. 

[PhineasC]

Randolph recorded 3.6” from 7 AM yesterday to 7 AM this morning, so that puts things at about 19” for this storm if you assume we made up the extra .2” in the showers today. Not a bad showing at all compared to the ski places!

[backedgeapproaching]

10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

We know what image a total precipitation forecast map like that calls for, but I'm not quite as suicidal as you to be posting any sort of stuff regarding prognostications for the upcoming week in the main pattern thread.

 

 

 

 

PF is brave soul posting orographically driven precip maps with a deep pack while SNE has daffodils popping up and tilling gardens...

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I assume it can be seen on the paths that are cut to porches and for walkways. 

Oh for sure and plow piles.  Roof-tops like discussed.  I do think it's a lot less visible though than growing up in suburbia and urban areas... where there are snowbanks everywhere and more general "snow clean up."  Here it's like they just plow the snow further into a field or lawn... but when you don't have that, you start to really see the piles grow in urban/suburban areas.  I just always felt like you "see" 30 inches of snow more visibly in terms of impact back where I grew up.

It's also a joke my wife has with me.  When I'm like "hey seems like we probably got 7 inches last night" the answer is usually "it all looks white to me, I have no idea how you can tell."

[powderfreak]

58 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I’ve updated the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Malcolm as of today.  Things have leveled off up and down the state for the most part, with the storm totals in the Northern and Central Greens typically in the 18-20” range along the spine, and a couple of standouts like Killington and Middlebury nearing the 2-foot mark.  Heading south from Okemo, storm totals generally appear to be in the 14-16” range, except for Stratton, which really stands out with the 24” number.  The accumulation there must be highly localized because geographically, Stratton is extremely close to Bromley and Magic.

 

Jay Peak: 19”

Burke: 9”

Smuggler’s Notch: 19”

Stowe: 17”

Bolton Valley: 19”

Mad River Glen: 19”

Sugarbush: 20”

 

Hey now, don't sell us short!  19" after last night's/this morning's snow.

[J.Spin]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hey now, don't sell us short!  19" after last night's/this morning's snow.

Sorry about that, and thanks for the clarification – I updated it in my post.  I think I just read the 17” from the SMR Snow and Weather Report text (I usually find that when the resorts have a text detail section, they are pretty good at keeping storm totals up to date vs. the standard 24-, 48-, 72-hour numbers) but the way it was worded made me miss the 1” new part at the beginning.  I do see that they’ve got 18” now in the 48-hour total (image below), but I don’t think I would have been able to get to the 19” without your help.  Man, look at that amazing storm total consistency all the way down the spine from Jay to the ‘bush – essentially ±1”.

[DavisStraight]

Decent snow shower when I was in Holden earlier, they still have some snow on the ground, actually looks winterlike up there.

[tamarack]

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh for sure and plow piles.  Roof-tops like discussed.  I do think it's a lot less visible though than growing up in suburbia and urban areas... where there are snowbanks everywhere and more general "snow clean up."  Here it's like they just plow the snow further into a field or lawn... but when you don't have that, you start to really see the piles grow in urban/suburban areas.  I just always felt like you "see" 30 inches of snow more visibly in terms of impact back where I grew up.

It's also a joke my wife has with me.  When I'm like "hey seems like we probably got 7 inches last night" the answer is usually "it all looks white to me, I have no idea how you can tell."

NNE plow operators tend to clear snow for the next storm, not just the current one.  That's probably why the RI fellow was so disappointed 4 years ago.  Piles in Pawtucket after 15" looked just as big as western Maine mountain roadsides after 50" in 9 days atop a 30"+ pack.  

[J.Spin]

17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The snow depth finally hit 30”, with a gain of 16” so far from this storm.  This was a game changer with very minimal settling and all meat.  Very thick.

And with that, we’ve finally hit the 24” mark at the stake for the first time this season.  Indeed, most low-angle, well maintained glades should be skiable around here at this point in my experience.  They absolutely are of course, since we didn’t just limp to the 24” depth, we sailed right past it.  On top of that, it’s not as if we got here with just fluff, it was done with a lot of meaty snow, so way more than just the low-angle glades are viable.  From what I’ve seen out on the mountain over the past few days, most medium-angle trees and natural trails are in decent shape as well.  People are venturing into the steeper areas off piste too, but you can tell those spots need a bit more snowpack.  That’s where the classic 40” rule comes into play.

So where does this season sit among others with respect to reaching 24” at the stake?  Well, we knew it was on the late side, but now that the data are in, we can take a look.  Indeed, we’re pretty far out there with a date of Jan 17^th – that’s 1.8 σ beyond the mean date of December 13^th, and this puts us in the bottom 3-4% of seasons.  It’s probably about once in every 30 seasons or so that it should fall this late based on the available data.

Looking at the updated plot below for dates of reaching 24”, you can see that only three other seasons on Mansfield had later dates than this for reaching a 24” snowpack depth.  I can’t immediately speak to the robustness of the total liquid equivalent in the pack of the those seasons relative to this season, but none of those seasons hit it with the 30” that this one did:

2015-2016:  January 18^th, with exactly 24” at the stake

1964-1965:  January 20^th, with 27” at the stake

1979-1980:  January 23^rd, with exactly 24” at the stake