NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[backedgeapproaching]

9 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

My 2020 weather stats:

Total precipitation: 58.32" 

Total Snowfall: 131.0"

Average Temperature: 43.6° F

Lowest Temperature: -7.9° F on 2/15

Highest Temperature: 84.8° F on 7/19

I'm amazed at how high my precipitation total is given that Bennington just over the hill about 12 miles away had only 36.94" and Pittsfield, MA about 30 miles to my SSW had 37.41". This total is from a Stratus rain gauge and not from my Davis VP2 tipping bucket gauge.

 

I'm definitely not an ASOS expert, but I honestly think the DDH ASOS is under reporting a bit.  We all know that Bennington downslopes like a champ, but I have been looking at the DDH obs for a while and they just always seem a little lower than some of the PWS around there. (I know PWS are more likely to not be calibrated correctly).

Also, I think they are losing precip totals in the winter months because so many snow events are very windy.  Maybe @dendrite or someone else can chime in on how effective the ASOS catch basins are at collecting snow in windy conditions.  I just think in a windy location the cocorahs totals are probably more representative of total precip.  Maybe I'm off here and the precip totals are 100% accurate.  I'm not saying they would have 50+" of precip, but maybe 40" to low 40s". Even with that you still have a large discrepancy.

For comparison I had 50.15" precip for 2020 /Calendar snow 103.7" also in the valley, granted a better spot than DDH.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Flurries here now, 26 degrees.

Mother Nature is giving you a reach around , enjoy 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I'm definitely not an ASOS expert, but I honestly think the DDH ASOS is under reporting a bit.  We all know that Bennington downslopes like a champ, but I have been looking at the DDH obs for a while and they just always seem a little lower than some of the PWS around there. (I know PWS are more likely to not be calibrated correctly).

Also, I think they are losing precip totals in the winter months because so many snow events are very windy.  Maybe @dendrite or someone else can chime in on how effective the ASOS catch basins are at collecting snow in windy conditions.  I just think in a windy location the cocorahs totals are probably more representative of total precip.  Maybe I'm off here and the precip totals are 100% accurate.  I'm not saying they would have 50+" of precip, but maybe 40" to low 40s". Even with that you still have a large discrepancy.

For comparison I had 50.15" precip for 2020 /Calendar snow 103.7" also in the valley, granted a better spot than DDH.

The AWPAGs precip gauges are really good now. With wind screens the % loss due to turbulence is significantly reduced. It looks like DDH has not received one yet so they still have a heated tipping bucket which will be prone to evaporation in S and tip spill issues in +RA. PSF has a heated tipping bucket as well.

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Whole lot of nothing on the models through mid-month at least. No bread or butter to be found anywhere.

We’ve got potential snow from the easterly flow through midweek from the current storm, and then some models even show potential northerly/northwesterly flow over the weekend as that storm pulls more to the north into Newfoundland.  After that it looks like a more typical bread and butter-style flow sets up in the beginning to middle of next week.  Most models show northern stream shortwaves and the lakes starting to fire up at that point.  That could change of course, but as you know, that sort of flow is typically much more reliable than the erratic processes of phasing coastal systems.  The long term in the BTV NWS AFD does actually mention that anticipated change away from the coastal low pattern to a more zonal flow:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

916 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 245 AM EST Tuesday...A strong omega block centered over the northern Atlantic Ocean will continue through the weekend before flow begins to become more zonal as the blocking pattern finally deteriorates. Prior to this, a polar low will drop out of Canada into New England with a burst of colder air to follow. Unfortunately, the lack of moisture will likely inhibit the potential for any snow showers as all signs point to a completely unsaturated snow growth layer. Temperatures following this polar low will drop closer to seasonal normals but as has been the trend this winter, temperatures should remain on the warmer side of normal. Temperatures will rebound a bit as we head into the beginning of next week but the potential for any storm systems within the next 7 days appears next to nothing. With the AO and NAO both trending toward neutral, we are getting out of the coastal low pattern seen mid-December through early January.

 

I know some folks want January cold to freeze up the waters, but I’m definitely partial to this sort of pattern with clouds and at least small chances for refreshers vs. sitting under arctic high pressure with numbing temperatures and no chances for anything.  Below average temperatures around here in January are just so brutal.  They would probably help with respect to snowmaking based on what PF said in the ski thread, but I know they’re at least making snow in the current regime.

Looking at my data, we’re just over a third of the way through a typical snowfall season and we’re on our 21^st system with accumulation, so that’s actually a pretty solid pace for storm activity.  We haven’t had that insane mix of continuous bread and butter and larger all-snow systems that sometimes happens, but we’d likely be ahead of average on snowfall if that had been going on.  What we’ve had has at least let us keep up an average pace for snowfall, it just loses a bit of its “punch” when snowpack preservation has been poor until recently.

This is a bit of a lull in our storm pace, but I know you’re enjoying the fact that you’ve got snow on the ground and it shouldn’t be going anywhere in the immediate future.  The winter vibe at your NH place is probably much different at the moment than it would be in MD.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

This is a bit of a lull in our storm pace, but I know you’re enjoying the fact that you’ve got snow on the ground and it shouldn’t be going anywhere in the immediate future.  The winter vibe at your NH place is probably much different at the moment than it would be in MD.

LOL yeah, to put it mildly. The grinch storm on Christmas felt more like the winter vibe in MD.

I am happy I have snow OTG here. Makes this boring period not too bad. I agree it is also good weather for skiing (if not exactly snowmaking). 

[alex]

It would be much better for skiing if there were a deeper base to open up glades etc. But they did open up some natural trails today. And I agree, the vibe is still full on winter. If there is snow on the trees, I'm happy.

[alex]

The rime is also adding to the vibe lol

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The AWPAGs precip gauges are really good now. With wind screens the % loss due to turbulence is significantly reduced. It looks like DDH has not received one yet so they still have a heated tipping bucket which will be prone to evaporation in S and tip spill issues in +RA. PSF has a heated tipping bucket as well.

What about MVL?  That one sucks with recording precipitation.  It didn’t sample even a tenth of that last frozen event that was 0.50”+.

[#NoPoles]

This is definitely not the year where a moose farts and we get 6 inches of snow

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Flurries here now, 26 degrees.

I can never tell quite what’s in the flow up by you guys on our BTV radar, but with your webcam I can at least get a snapshot current view and see that there are flakes flying.  Anyway, we just got hit with a quick burst here, and I see that the easterly/southeasterly flow has some upstream moisture, so it’s definitely something to watch for.  This is where the mountains do their thing with respect to promoting flakes if there’s at least a bit of moisture around.

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What about MVL?  That one sucks with recording precipitation.  It didn’t sample even a tenth of that last frozen event that was 0.50”+.

Not sure...it’s missing data. It’s probably is a tipper though.

You have pics of the ASOS suite, right?

edit...the more I look the more I think only the main climo stations have them. MHT apparently has a heated tipper as well. CON and BTV have AWPAGs.

[dendrite]

Surprisingly MPV is listed with a tipper too. I guess that means only BTV has an AWPAGs.

[MarkO]

I really like days like today. Just cold enough for the flurries to accumulate and cover up any of the dirt or pavement and keep the trees white. Nice winter feel.

 

Also probably more to do with havinig to quarantine. One of the guys I spent Saturday skiing and drinking with tested positive. My rapid test came back negative, but I'm pretty sure it was just taken too soon. A little but of a cough.

[wxmanmitch]

6 hours ago, tamarack said:

No surprise you're a lot wetter than Burlington, given its downslope site and your elevation.  The difference with Pittsfield seems more anomalous.

Is that 131" for calendar 2020 or winter 19-20?  My 2019-20 was 85.1" but calendar 2020 only 72.1".

That 131.0" was for the 2020 calendar year. My 2019-20 snowfall total is in my signature.

[PhineasC]

Snowed here all day. Very wintry out on the slopes at Cannon too. 

[PhineasC]

I think I am finally starting to understand the Gospel of Bread 'n Butter that J. Spin has been preaching. 

If I can get 10-12" on the ground as a solid pack, these small refreshers of 0.5 to 2" every other day can sustain the good times for a long while, without needing to gamble on the "epic pattern" nonsense and fickle coastals. I get it now. Just need to get a little more pack and lock this in and keep the cutters away.

 

[mreaves]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think I am finally starting to understand the Gospel of Bread 'n Butter that J. Spin has been preaching. 

If I can get 10-12" on the ground as a solid pack, these small refreshers of 0.5 to 2" every other day can sustain the good times for a long while, without needing to gamble on the "epic pattern" nonsense and fickle coastals. I get it now. Just need to get a little more pack and lock this in and keep the cutters away.

 

That's pretty much it.  This has been an odd year, to say the least.  Similar to many in the NNE thread, I usually have snowcover starting around the 1st week of December and it builds from there.  Even if you have cutters but retain snow, it just becomes bullet proof.  The absolute wipeout that we had was a bit extreme and basically put all of us back at the starting line.  

[alex]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think I am finally starting to understand the Gospel of Bread 'n Butter that J. Spin has been preaching. 

If I can get 10-12" on the ground as a solid pack, these small refreshers of 0.5 to 2" every other day can sustain the good times for a long while, without needing to gamble on the "epic pattern" nonsense and fickle coastals. I get it now. Just need to get a little more pack and lock this in and keep the cutters away.

 

In a regular year, you don't even need to fear the cutters that much. They often end up resulting in a net gain between front end and upslope. But that's not been the story recently. 

 

Occasionally you get into these patterns that bring 1-3" every day for a few weeks, and it feels like quiet weather because of the lack of big storms until you realize 2 weeks later that you now have a really deep pack. I love when that happens!

[powderfreak]

42 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think I am finally starting to understand the Gospel of Bread 'n Butter that J. Spin has been preaching. 

If I can get 10-12" on the ground as a solid pack, these small refreshers of 0.5 to 2" every other day can sustain the good times for a long while, without needing to gamble on the "epic pattern" nonsense and fickle coastals. I get it now. Just need to get a little more pack and lock this in and keep the cutters away.

 

Yes, just having flakes falling so much of the time gives that winter vibe.  It keeps the top of the snow looking fresh (because honestly if the top layer is fresh, it all looks fresh) and it’s worth something when you love snow to not have to wait long periods of time between seeing flakes fall.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yes, just having flakes falling so much of the time gives that winter vibe.  It keeps the top of the snow looking fresh (because honestly if the top layer is fresh, it all looks fresh) and it’s worth something when you love snow to not have to wait long periods of time between seeing flakes fall.

Decent little burst here now, and some solid light snow all day. It was awesome with a pack. Makes it feel like a lot more snow fell (as you noted). Footprints and walkways all get that "filled in" look again too.

 

[wxeyeNH]

Flakes in the air all day.  About 1/4" to 1/2".    Looks like it will stay below freezing for the next week.   Even though I only have 4" or so it will not be going anyplace soon so is usually the case in January it is a winter landscape.  Newfound Lake is now starting to freeze over.  Bob houses going up.  

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I think I am finally starting to understand the Gospel of Bread 'n Butter that J. Spin has been preaching. 

If I can get 10-12" on the ground as a solid pack, these small refreshers of 0.5 to 2" every other day can sustain the good times for a long while, without needing to gamble on the "epic pattern" nonsense and fickle coastals. I get it now. Just need to get a little more pack and lock this in and keep the cutters away.

[powderfreak]

We've got more inversions coming the next couple of days.  The views and photos have been stunning.

Today was day 3 of this inversion business... coldest air in the base area and it was evening snowing today (and accumulating a bit) on the lower mountain out of this low level cloud deck.  Crazy to have it snowing in the base area but sunny and warm at the summits.

 

I generally use about 875mb for the summits around here.  Can easily see the inversion on RH and temp plots.  Thursday looks golden for beach weather at the summits in blue sky and light mild flow, ha.

[powderfreak]

Here's another one from a friend (not my shot but similar view).

Mountains make weather really so much more interesting when you can actually see the atmospheric profile in the vertical.

[MarkO]

I just did a core sample. About 1.05" of water content. I'd wager 95% of that is in the bottom 3 or so inches. The past few days of nickel and diming glorified dustings amount to about 2" give or take. I really don't upslope at all, but sometimes cash in on the residual moisture like we've been having. If we get a cutter that drops a 1/2" of rain, most of it will just build the pack, especially when the core gets a little thicker. I started a thread a couple years ago about where you'd draw the line between what parts of New England typically form a snow pack, because over the past ten years of going back and forth, one definitely exists up here (Lowell is just a little too far south). 

It's been below freezing all but about 4 hours this "year". However, back in Lowell it's been below freezing about 1/2 the time. I'm pretty sure the ground is bare down there as well.

[powderfreak]

It has really been a blow torch over the past two months.  Terrible for snowmaking weather but also shows just how cold the NNE climo is that we can be *this warm relative to normal* and still keep some form of snow cover.  It has been pretty high end warmth in the mountains though.  Higher elevations seem to be the worst but it's been extremely warm in the means everywhere.

+7.3 for a monthly departure at Mansfield for December and +5.3 at MVL.  I do think the valley has been cooler relative to normal compared to the high slopes due to radiational cooling kicking in at times.

This recent pattern though has been pretty rough relative to normal.  Getting a snow event out of it has definitely hidden the warmth.  It's masked the just absolute torch this winter has been so far.  On a 2011-2012 level at this point up here as far as temperature departures go... even going back to early November 2020.  Here's the 60 day departure.

[powderfreak]

The 5 days to start January have been almost hot relative to normal.  It just goes to show how low normal is this time of year than it can be so far above average and still snow... still keep snow on the ground.

BTV is a quick +10.5 over the past 5 days to start January, and Mansfield summit at +12.5.  Low diurnal changes likely the culprit.

Mansfield normal temps the past few days are 18/3... the actual 29/17.  Pretty impressive actually!  With a strong subsistence inversion those summit departures won't get much help through the first 7-10 days of January.

[alex]

Nice snowy evening after all, even if accumulations are light. Renters across the street are hanging out by the fire pit in the snow, it's so cute to see people come up here and think they're in an awesome snowy pattern when for us it sucks lol

[mreaves]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has really been a blow torch over the past two months.  Terrible for snowmaking weather but also shows just how cold the NNE climo is that we can be *this warm relative to normal* and still keep some form of snow cover.  It has been pretty high end warmth in the mountains though.  Higher elevations seem to be the worst but it's been extremely warm in the means everywhere.

+7.3 for a monthly departure at Mansfield for December and +5.3 at MVL.  I do think the valley has been cooler relative to normal compared to the high slopes due to radiational cooling kicking in at times.

This recent pattern though has been pretty rough relative to normal.  Getting a snow event out of it has definitely hidden the warmth.  It's masked the just absolute torch this winter has been so far.  On a 2011-2012 level at this point up here as far as temperature departures go... even going back to early November 2020.  Here's the 60 day departure.

I’ve been thinking of your comments in the past noting that we don’t need to be all that cold for snow. This is like a prime example. People spending their first winter up here, other than snow weenies like Phin, would almost think it was a somewhat close to normal winter. 

[jculligan]

0.5" of fluff from many hours of steady very light snow late yesterday. Could be a long wait before the next measurable now. Models have been teasing on and off for the Tuesday/Wednesday period next week, so hopefully that starts to gain some traction in the coming days. Still a wintry feel out there regardless.