PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 This wed/thu deal before the main storm is looking pretty damn potent on the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 58 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This wed/thu deal before the main storm is looking pretty damn potent on the mesos. Yeah, the 3k is really starting to light it up weds night with what looks like some serious upslope after the initial burst comes through. Looks like maybe somehow we could squeeze out a 6 plus deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Radar never really shows Jay in the low level precip as the beam overshoots it, but I bet you’re doing well in this regime. We actually have some sun coming out down south here now after some good pulses of snow. I noticed radar is really bad up here. I’ve been using the 400 zoom and just kind of following the pulse near Richford to see what’s coming but it’s a lot easier to see what’s going on toward Mansfield. I’m guessing the weather underground out of Burlington is the best radar for around here. tnrw night into weds looking kinda decent for our area down to Jspin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 44 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: I noticed radar is really bad up here. I’ve been using the 400 zoom and just kind of following the pulse near Richford to see what’s coming but it’s a lot easier to see what’s going on toward Mansfield. I’m guessing the weather underground out of Burlington is the best radar for around here. tnrw night into weds looking kinda decent for our area down to Jspin. The wunderground radar that shows on my PWS actually seems to be the best around here too... NWS' is unusable for upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 hours ago, bwt3650 said: I noticed radar is really bad up here. I’ve been using the 400 zoom and just kind of following the pulse near Richford to see what’s coming but it’s a lot easier to see what’s going on toward Mansfield. I’m guessing the weather underground out of Burlington is the best radar for around here. Yeah the beam is just too high in that area... because we can't use the 1st tilt as it's blocked by terrain and need to go up to higher degree scans. Composite works best up in your areas but still overshoots the upslope usually. I generally do what you do and you can infer what's happening based on the signature further south towards Mansfield. If echos are building in the northern Champlain Valley and adjacent western slope areas up there in Richford, you can be sure it's also lighting up over the Jay area. I've never really looked but it just occurred to me you might get better coverage out of the Canadian radar sites. I'd assume there's one in Montreal or near there. Ground is really flat around there so it might get a decent sample around Jay. The big limiting factor is higher terrain near the radar sites (ie BTV). Like GYX out of Gray, ME actually samples Phin at the same elevation overhead as BTV does here, despite me being only being like 20 miles from the radar site and Phin 60 miles from the GYX site. Both of us get sampled at around 5-6k feet elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Pretty dang cold out there tonight. The wind is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Down to 6F at 9pm at the ASOS near here, the snow cover certainly helps, even if only 2-3” of now crusty snow... no grass blades exposed certainly helps wring the cold out. The top of the ski area is 3F, with a stiff breeze. 44G48 wind speed for a wind chill of -26F right now at the top of the chairlifts, ha. This afternoon and evening is the first time in a long while it’s felt legitimately winter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Down to 6F at 9pm at the ASOS near here, the snow cover certainly helps, even if only 2-3” of now crusty snow... no grass blades exposed certainly helps wring the cold out. The top of the ski area is 3F, with a stiff breeze. 44G48 wind speed for a wind chill of -26F right now at the top of the chairlifts, ha. This afternoon and evening is the first time in a long while it’s felt legitimately winter cold. Wind is ripping pretty good here, gusts to 30. 12 degrees. Calm and 3 degrees at Alex's spot. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14.7°/1.5° here. Wind is about 3 mph. Feels pretty cold in what’s been a mild month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 58 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Wind is ripping pretty good here, gusts to 30. 12 degrees. Calm and 3 degrees at Alex's spot. LOL The wind is another fascinating microclimate thing in the mountains. It always does its own thing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 The Monday storm is also coming into focus, starting to look pretty good for parts of NNE with some snow from the coastal. Could be a great three event sequence starting this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 hours ago, alex said: The wind is another fascinating microclimate thing in the mountains. It always does its own thing! wind in the mountains is very interesting. I've been on top of mount washington in near gale force winds and dropped a few hundred vertical feet and suddenly eerily calm. Same thing happened on Franconia Ridge this weekend - certainly windy above greenleaf hut but last couple of hundred vertical feet was way, way more intense - same exposure, aspect, et cetera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 58 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The Monday storm is also coming into focus, starting to look pretty good for parts of NNE with some snow from the coastal. Could be a great three event sequence starting this evening. Nam and rgem look to keep things real wintery over the next several days. Starting today up here, Friday looks like the only day without significant snow in the air through Sunday. The upslope signal looks good too and the weekend looks like it might stay all snow. Maybe this is what finally gets us started. Big chances from where this looked like it was headed Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Froude numbers between 1 and 2 tonight which looks like it favors us up here. Just learning about this so someone else who knows better jump in, but I’m thinking this is a good signal for tonight after the initial burst of precipitation. https://www.weather.gov/btv/froudeALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 radar showing solid echoes but checking on the cams, it seems as though only minor precip is happening throughout the region thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Flakes started appearing here in Waterbury around 1:30 P.M. ahead of this next system, but it looks like these are just some early forerunner flakes associated with the warm front that shouldn’t amount to much. The next round of snow comes in this evening, with our point forecast calling for about an inch of accumulation through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 42 minutes ago, MRVexpat said: radar showing solid echoes but checking on the cams, it seems as though only minor precip is happening throughout the region thus far. Yeah, I saw that relatively strong radar signal as well – it looks like it’s the warm front, but there’s a lot of dry air for the precipitation to overcome. There should be more notable snow starting this evening though: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1252 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 954 AM EST Wednesday...Some light snow spreading over the area as a warm front moves through. This will be very short- lived with a clear back edge to the snow and minimal daytime accumulations expected. Otherwise, forecast still on track for increasing gusty winds today and more widespread precip this evening into overnight tonight. Previous Discussion... Satellite imagery shows increasing mid and high level clouds moving into the region. There is some snow back across western New York, but feel this may not hold together and move into our region as plenty of dry air remains in place. The better chances will come late in the day and especially tonight as cold front gradually moves toward the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Flurries here at Bretton woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 24 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Flurries here at Bretton woods. Radar looks like a good burst moving through your area. Just virga over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Starting to come down heavier now...might be some pellets mixed in so doesn’t seem like ratios will be great. radar lighting up. 3k has close to a foot up here, but 6-8 sounds reasonable. It would make for a decent morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 What great afternoon light today from the top of Spruce Peak. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Starting to come down heavier now...might be some pellets mixed in so doesn’t seem like ratios will be great. radar lighting up. 3k has close to a foot up here, but 6-8 sounds reasonable. It would make for a decent morning. Yeah we are currently in the deep southwest flow sink hole downwind of the Adirondacks. The Greens get the air lifting around here but not until you are into the NEK does it really start falling. We see this from time to time when the mid-level SW flow is pretty unblocked.... the standing wave downslope consumes Sugarbush/Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs stretch. Of course there are other times when the SW flow and the right inversion height blocks the flow and crushes us. But the models have been pretty steady on a largely unblocked flow depositing precipitation well downwind into the NEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Have had returns overhead for hours but just some stray flakes here. Must be super dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Solid rates now. 1.5 to 2” down so far. Much better ratios. Radar looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Light snow started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 30.4F with ZR..awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Actually picked up fast, already a solid coating on the shoveled area of the deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Good snow here now, laying quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Dusting here. It is blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3k keeps precip going until late morning here. That mix line looks close tho...be interesting to see how far down this is still snow. If we hold on, should look good out there in the morning. Still coming down strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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