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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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Spent all day in Conway. I love that town, but it's such a different world weather wise. We've had snow-caked trees for a while, and there there's a bit of snow on the ground (maybe 4" or so, about half of what we have here), but nothing on trees. It reminded me what I love about up here. Of course, they keep their snow much better than we do, but you can't beat the constant refreshers from a look perspective. 

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Been snowing most of the day in town but it’s been a lot of graupel and bullets/rimed flakes.  Certainly not dendrites, so don’t really have much accumulation to show for it.  Very low ratio crystal structure.

That's very interesting.  I was gone for most of the work day hours, but everything I’ve seen here at our site has been solid flakes – certainly a collection of sizes, but definitely real dendrites.  Density at 4:00 P.M. observations came in at 8.8% H2O, which is certainly not fluff, but definitely sub-10% H2O.  I wonder if we’re getting flakes from sites of better lift – the BTV NWS did say the Froude Numbers suggested blocked flow at first, and then unblocked by the afternoon into the evening.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

700 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 700 PM EST Tuesday...Northwest-southeast oriented snow bands have developed across the North Country in response to cooling aloft in the wake of weak cold front, with widespread upslope snow showers in the favored areas of the northern Greens, Adirondacks, and Northeast Kingdom persisting. Froude numbers continue to support unblocked flow that favors the aforementioned areas in Vermont to continue seeing snow showers until the relative humidity in the cloud layer dwindles after midnight, with other areas with minimal precipitation chances by this evening.

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

UPS guy stuck on my driveway. Sneaky event today for sure. Still snowing well. 

That's what you are going to find out.  Even without a real storm it is going to snow.  I think we all loose our snowpack with the next system.  A total reset.  It will be interesting to see if I can keep any of my existing 12" on the ground.  

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47 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

That's very interesting.  I was gone for most of the work day hours, but everything I’ve seen here at our site has been solid flakes – certainly a collection of sizes, but definitely real dendrites.  Density at 4:00 P.M. observations came in at 8.8% H2O, which is certainly not fluff, but definitely sub-10% H2O.  I wonder if we’re getting flakes from sites of better lift – the BTV NWS did say the Froude Numbers suggested blocked flow at first, and then unblocked by the afternoon into the evening.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

700 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 700 PM EST Tuesday...Northwest-southeast oriented snow bands have developed across the North Country in response to cooling aloft in the wake of weak cold front, with widespread upslope snow showers in the favored areas of the northern Greens, Adirondacks, and Northeast Kingdom persisting. Froude numbers continue to support unblocked flow that favors the aforementioned areas in Vermont to continue seeing snow showers until the relative humidity in the cloud layer dwindles after midnight, with other areas with minimal precipitation chances by this evening.

Yeah very possible.  Since about noon it's been more convective looking structures, lots of rime. Driving RT 100 around noon there was just a full on graupel storm going on at that that high point on the Waterbury Stowe line near the Lawn Rangers landscaping spot.  Enough to quickly cover the road in dippin dots.

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Very unblocked flow... definitely a good set-up for you Phin as the precipitation can propagate well downstream.  Narrow streamers too that looks like you've gotten into one.

Not the usual "wall of snow" packed into the NW side of the mountains but more narrow convergence zones... odd that the area NW of MWN proper is in a gap.  Sometimes the unorganized events can be better for the spots outside the classic NW flow zone.  Looks like they propagate quite a bit downwind of the mountains too.

WUNIDS_map.gif.574422252ad5103ec4b42d45c378c6f3.gif

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Can also see the unblocked flow as the best echos at 6,000ft are east of the Mansfield here into Stowe.  Finally got a decent burst of snow to whiten the roads... been mild today flirting 32-34F for a while in the valley.  Only about a half inch today or so, wouldn't surprise me if it was a tenth of an inch of water though.  Lots of dippin' dots.

Dec_22.gif.a4f0332f38e487194bc467bc68d7f6ef.gif

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Went out to the wood pile, looks like we picked up about an inch today.  What I really noticed though is I can see the stars tonight and the wind was moving pretty good.  My house is around 1250' with hills on each side of me that go up to 1400-1500' fairly quickly and I could see the trees moving up there and could really hear the wind up there. Was just something I wasn't expecting. Beautiful out there right now though as the moon is shining on that fresh snow. 

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Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

I see a few flurries out there, but the point forecast here doesn’t call for any snow today, so this may be the last round of accumulation for this event.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 21.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I am OK with the look of the 06z GFS. Two weak systems swing through and drop snow on me followed by some upslope. That works here. No need for wound-up bombs that may cut. 

I saw this when I was browsing through the main December thread – you are definitely starting to get a feel for your location in winter.

It’s not that anyone is against big synoptic systems or anything, they can deliver a lot of snow and really put down a base.  But, trying to live off those types of storms in terms of supplying continuous snow for winter-related industries and pursuits is just a massive, season-long crapshoot unless you are in some sort of perfect pattern.  I guess that’s why so much of the discussion in the forum is focused around watching for good/great winter weather patterns to develop.

This statement was great: “Two weak systems swing through and drop snow on me followed by some upslope. That works here.”

Yeah, in terms of snowfall, that’s literally our…

Bread&Butter.jpg

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I saw this when I was browsing through the main December thread – you are definitely starting to get a feel for your location in winter.

 

It’s not that anyone is against big synoptic systems or anything, they can deliver a lot of snow and really put down a base.  But, trying to live off those types of storms in terms of supplying continuous snow for winter-related industries and pursuits is just a massive, season-long crapshoot unless you are in some sort of perfect pattern.  I guess that’s why so much of the discussion in the forum is focused around watching for good/great winter weather patterns to develop.

 

This statement was great: “Two weak systems swing through and drop snow on me followed by some upslope. That works here.”

 

Yeah, in terms of snowfall, that’s literally our…

 

Bread&Butter.jpg

And as quick as he gets it, he loses it which is his home state's

 

image.png.a90d2d578946f6b57b6fc21601e081e8.png

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38 minutes ago, alex said:

While we wait... It's gorgeous 

 

What a day!

Had a great view this morning of the Vermont Air National Guard taking out the F-35 fighter jets.  They were doing formations and then breaking off of each other to do loops.  There was at least a half dozen of them in the air this morning.  They looked like they must be having the time of their lives, flying fighter jets through bluebird skies.  The speed is hard to comprehend... they were just crushing it through the sky.  Like flying a damn rocket ship over Vermont, ha.

132578805_10104405933865080_505010838123

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I miss being in Vermont for Christmas but hope you all have a great holiday. My wife has never seen a white Christmas so we are headed up to Banner Elk NC early Christmas morning to change that (likely at least several fresh inches up there behind this big front). Before that we may see tors here tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

What a day!

Had a great view this morning of the Vermont Air National Guard taking out the F-35 fighter jets.  They were doing formations and then breaking off of each other to do loops.  There was at least a half dozen of them in the air this morning.  They looked like they must be having the time of their lives, flying fighter jets through bluebird skies.  The speed is hard to comprehend... they were just crushing it through the sky.  Like flying a damn rocket ship over Vermont, ha.

132578805_10104405933865080_505010838123

Wish it had been over NH.  I'm sure lots of social media chatter.   

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