NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Amazingly, there is a chance for a decent snowstorm this week for my MD house. LOL

I picked the right 10 days to go home. We will see if it pans out down here. 100 ways to fail here.

 

[PhineasC]

Yeah, I'll take it. Between the 14" in Randolph last weekend and 18-20" in MD, it would go down as a legendary winter month for sure. Hope it happens. But I have learned not to get my hopes up for snow down there. Very good chance that the Euro craps the bed. It loves to ruin the party.

[qg_omega]

19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, I'll take it. Between the 14" in Randolph last weekend and 18-20" in MD, it would go down as a legendary winter month for sure. Hope it happens. But I have learned not to get my hopes up for snow down there. Very good chance that the Euro craps the bed. It loves to ruin the party.

 

[wxeyeNH]

Still looking good for Metro Baltimore and Phin.  When I lived there it was total panic with everything shutting down for 4 or 6".   Is it going to be one of those winters when arctic highs leave NNE high and dry while the Mid Atlantic and SNE cash in?

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, qg_omega said:

 

I grew up in Morris County, where that 37.7 foolishness is located.  However, if the current models verify I could see then getting 15-20.  (While I might get 1/2")

Still looking good for Metro Baltimore and Phin.  When I lived there it was total panic with everything shutting down for 4 or 6".

Spent 2 years there while at Hopkins.  64-65 had nothing beyond 4-5" and things went okay.  They got 7-8" on Jan 27, 1966 and that slowed things more, but when 15" and 50 mph winds followed 3 days later the city shut down.  I think Orleans Street was the only E-W road open and Charles Street the only N-S though the adjacent St. Paul opened the next day.  However, 10 days later side streets in the Hopkins area (2900 Charles) were still snowbound.

[backedgeapproaching]

23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I grew up in Morris County, where that 37.7 foolishness is located.  However, if the current models verify I could see then getting 15-20.  (While I might get 1/2")

Still looking good for Metro Baltimore and Phin.  When I lived there it was total panic with everything shutting down for 4 or 6".

Spent 2 years there while at Hopkins.  64-65 had nothing beyond 4-5" and things went okay.  They got 7-8" on Jan 27, 1966 and that slowed things more, but when 15" and 50 mph winds followed 3 days later the city shut down.  I think Orleans Street was the only E-W road open and Charles Street the only N-S though the adjacent St. Paul opened the next day.  However, 10 days later side streets in the Hopkins area (2900 Charles) were still snowbound.

Tamarack--were you a lax bro at Hopkins in mid 60s? Seems like Hopkins is Doctors and lacrosse players.

 

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Tamarack--were you a lax bro at Hopkins in mid 60s? Seems like Hopkins is Doctors and lacrosse players.

 

Never touched a stick before going there, but I spent spring vacation that first year fielding bounces off the handball court wall at home until I was comfortable tossing and catching, then played defense at intramurals.  No way I'd compete with folks that had sticks in their hands before they could walk.  Did play on the football team and experienced the radical difference between the two coaches.  The varsity FB coach would say things like "You better play your best or you'll lose 65-0!"  Had the varsity Lax coach for freshman FB, and he'd say things like "Make that easy cross-block and the back will get 20 yards; 4-5 plays like that and the other defense will be cooked."   Slightly different approach.

[bwt3650]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

I grew up in Morris County, where that 37.7 foolishness is located.  However, if the current models verify I could see then getting 15-20.  (While I might get 1/2")

Still looking good for Metro Baltimore and Phin.  When I lived there it was total panic with everything shutting down for 4 or 6".

Spent 2 years there while at Hopkins.  64-65 had nothing beyond 4-5" and things went okay.  They got 7-8" on Jan 27, 1966 and that slowed things more, but when 15" and 50 mph winds followed 3 days later the city shut down.  I think Orleans Street was the only E-W road open and Charles Street the only N-S though the adjacent St. Paul opened the next day.  However, 10 days later side streets in the Hopkins area (2900 Charles) were still snowbound.

My NJ home is literally right below the 37.7.  I was going to head back up mid-week, but this storm will def delay that.  As you know, the hills of Morris County could do quite well in this set-up.  That area generally averages significantly higher than NYC metro.  With about 500 feet of elevation, a lot of slushy inch or two storms in NYC or more like advisory storms here.  Half of that number (the more likely scenario) would be big for this area.  In the awful winter of 2015-2016, we had that one storm that pulled about 30" and prior to that, 2003 or 96 are the last time we went over two feet here.  It can happen, but its rare.  I wouldn't say panic, but anytime there is a foot of snow forecast, you can bet the senior citizens will be packing the supermarkets and buying Milk and Eggs, as if thats the only food you need too survive.  

 

This storm looks good here so far. Its rare to have such model agreement this far out down here;  but I'm also hoping for the Christmas time frame to get something going up north.  Northern Green ski areas need a good one by now to get things going.  If I could pull off this down here, it could make for a great start to winter, as I''ll be back up north from next week through all of Jan, when we should be rolling in NNE.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

My NJ home is literally right below the 37.7.  I was going to head back up mid-week, but this storm will def delay that.  As you know, the hills of Morris County could do quite well in this set-up.  That area generally averages significantly higher than NYC metro.  With about 500 feet of elevation, a lot of slushy inch or two storms in NYC or more like advisory storms here.  Half of that number (the more likely scenario) would be big for this area.  In the awful winter of 2015-2016, we had that one storm that pulled about 30" and prior to that, 2003 or 96 are the last time we went over two feet here.  It can happen, but its rare.  I wouldn't say panic, but anytime there is a foot of snow forecast, you can bet the senior citizens will be packing the supermarkets and buying Milk and Eggs, as if thats the only food you need too survive.  

 

This storm looks good here so far. Its rare to have such model agreement this far out down here;  but I'm also hoping for the Christmas time frame to get something going up north.  Northern Green ski areas need a good one by now to get things going.  If I could pull off this down here, it could make for a great start to winter, as I''ll be back up north from next week through all of Jan, when we should be rolling in NNE.

Same thoughts here.  

[tamarack]

53 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

My NJ home is literally right below the 37.7.  I was going to head back up mid-week, but this storm will def delay that.  As you know, the hills of Morris County could do quite well in this set-up.  That area generally averages significantly higher than NYC metro.  With about 500 feet of elevation, a lot of slushy inch or two storms in NYC or more like advisory storms here.  Half of that number (the more likely scenario) would be big for this area.  In the awful winter of 2015-2016, we had that one storm that pulled about 30" and prior to that, 2003 or 96 are the last time we went over two feet here.  It can happen, but its rare.  I wouldn't say panic, but anytime there is a foot of snow forecast, you can bet the senior citizens will be packing the supermarkets and buying Milk and Eggs, as if thats the only food you need too survive.  

 

This storm looks good here so far. Its rare to have such model agreement this far out down here;  but I'm also hoping for the Christmas time frame to get something going up north.  Northern Green ski areas need a good one by now to get things going.  If I could pull off this down here, it could make for a great start to winter, as I''ll be back up north from next week through all of Jan, when we should be rolling in NNE.

I lived slightly north of that "yardstick" at 700' elev in a northern Morris lake community.  Even in Maine I've never seen a run of big storms like we had from March 1956 thru Feb. 3-4, 1961.  Those endpoints were 24" (maybe more in the latter's howling wind) and March 21-22, 1958 was about the same.  Add Feb 1958, March and Dec 1960 and the JFK inaugural storm in Jan 1961 and there's 7 events 18-24" in a 60-month span.  We also had 12" paste bombs in April 1956 and March 1961.

[alex]

Hi peeps! A bit boring weather wise up here it seems for a little while. But heck, we have snow, the skiing today was awesome, and selfishly, snow down south is great for business (amazing how we always seem to get a rush of booking after a SNE snowstorm, even if we're smoking cirrus), plus the SNE weenies deserve some lovin'. It's been a string of miserable winters there, and we'll get our turn again, hopefully soon! It's nice to see such an active pattern, even if a bit too far south for our taste (and GYX is doing a great job at keeping hope alive, whether they're right or wrong). 

[PhineasC]

27 minutes ago, alex said:

Hi peeps! A bit boring weather wise up here it seems for a little while. But heck, we have snow, the skiing today was awesome, and selfishly, snow down south is great for business (amazing how we always seem to get a rush of booking after a SNE snowstorm, even if we're smoking cirrus), plus the SNE weenies deserve some lovin'. It's been a string of miserable winters there, and we'll get our turn again, hopefully soon! It's nice to see such an active pattern, even if a bit too far south for our taste (and GYX is doing a great job at keeping hope alive, whether they're right or wrong). 

I picked the best time to head south for 10 days. I look set up to get a foot or so down here in MD and then head back up to NNE just in time for things to get active again probably.  

[backedgeapproaching]

@J.Spin --They were discussing 6 hour clears in the main discussion thread which we have discussed many times over the years.  I just checked Cocorahs and saw this paragraph below, seems like new verbiage.   I know in past years on the cocorahs website it has said in black and white that 6 hour clears were OK. When I went to a cocorahs event at NWS ALY( 2018 maybe?) I asked the ALY Mets specifically and they said 6 hour clears were OK and actually encouraged if you had the time and capability to do them.  Looks like they added new bolded language below saying do not clear the board.  Just curious if you are still going to do clears?  I have done them since I joined 4-5 years ago, although not sure how many I am actually doing in a full season. 

"Observers in networks such as CoCoRaHS and the NWS Cooperative Network are required to take snowfall measurements once per day. During long duration events, snowfall may be measured at shorter intervals for the purpose of submitting a Significant Weather Report or reporting to the NWS, but the snowboard should NOT be cleared! The snowboard should be cleared only after your regular 24-hour observation.
Some observers, such as at airports, may be directed by their servicing NWS offices to take 6-hourly measurements. However, CoCoRaHS and U.S. Cooperative stations are to make measurements every 24 hours."

 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

@J.Spin --They were discussing 6 hour clears in the main discussion thread which we have discussed many times over the years.  I just checked Cocorahs and saw this paragraph below, seems like new verbiage.   I know in past years on the cocorahs website it has said in black and white that 6 hour clears were OK. When I went to a cocorahs event at NWS ALY( 2018 maybe?) I asked the ALY Mets specifically and they said 6 hour clears were OK and actually encouraged if you had the time and capability to do them.  Looks like they added new bolded language below saying do not clear the board.  Just curious if you are still going to do clears?  I have done them since I joined 4-5 years ago, although not sure how many I am actually doing in a full season. 

I haven’t been in the main thread for a while, so I’ll have to check out the discussion.  I do 6-hour clears when I can, and 12 or 24-hour clears fairly often as well depending on work, travel, etc.  This fall I’ve been working from home a lot, so I’ve actually been able to do more 6-hour clears than usual.  That disparity in clearing intervals seems to have been around a while, and it always seems to go back and forth; I asked my local CoCoRaHS representative a few years back, and he said it was fine the way I was doing mine with 6 to 24-hour clears.

It’s really hard to get snapshots of snow density throughout a storm if you’re always waiting until 24 hours to clear.  I guess if one wanted to do that, they could go with multiple boards, and you can leave one collecting and settling for the full 24 hours, and have others that you clear at intervals to get intermediate measurements on snow density.  That’s just more work and gets confusing though vs. just clearing your board/boards and resetting everything for the next interval.

As far as I know, the NWS does 6-hour clears, so if a CoCoRaHS observer doesn’t do that, then the observations aren’t as comparable between those sites.  I think CoCoRaHS is perhaps pushing the 24-hour thing to simplify it for their observers; not everyone has the time or discipline to deal with 6-hour observations, running liquid analyses every six hours, etc., so if they want everything to be somewhat standard among their observers, it comes across sort of shooting for the least common denominator or something along those lines.

A few other points about the 6 vs. 12 vs. 24-hour clearing intervals:

1.    To some degree it’s a “who really cares” sort of thing.  If someone clears more frequently and ends up with a few inches of extra accumulation, or even an extra 10% accumulation vs. clearing at the minimum frequency, what happens?  Nothing.  Nobody really cares.  The police aren’t coming around to fine CoCoRaHS for not getting their volunteers in line, and it’s not as if any of us are attempting to calibrate snowfall for some high-level NIST standardization that’s going to affect everyone’s livelihood.  It’s just a bunch of volunteers engaging in doing their best to measure a highly variable/inconsistent phenomenon.

2.    Any variance in snowfall due to collection interval issue has basically got to be small potatoes compared to the inaccuracies people deal with in windy locations.

3.    As long as you’re accurately collecting liquid, the snowfall thing is in many respects, moot.  Liquid trumps all, and doesn’t vary with any sort of collection interval.  For CoCoRaHS observers who aren’t collecting liquid with their winter snowfall measurements, they should be.  That’s what CoCoRaHS really cares about much more than any snowfall numbers.

[MRVexpat]

4 hours ago, alex said:

and selfishly, snow down south is great for business (amazing how we always seem to get a rush of booking after a SNE snowstorm, even if we're smoking cirrus), 

Haha seriously, it's a region-wide phenomenon. Things overheard while swinging by the guest services desk: "I can't park my car anywhere in the city, why isn't there more powder?"

[backedgeapproaching]

14 hours ago, J.Spin said:

As far as I know, the NWS does 6-hour clears, so if a CoCoRaHS observer doesn’t do that, then the observations aren’t as comparable between those sites.  I think CoCoRaHS is perhaps pushing the 24-hour thing to simplify it for their observers; not everyone has the time or discipline to deal with 6-hour observations, running liquid analyses every six hours, etc., so if they want everything to be somewhat standard among their observers, it comes across sort of shooting for the least common denominator or something along those lines.

Right, that is exactly what the ALY Mets said at the event, basically they realize this is strictly volunteer and the once a day clear would just be easier for the majority of observers, but said to do the 6 hour clear if you had the ability to.  Seems now they want to be in line with COOP's which are once a day and to streamline all data--snowfall wise that is.  Like you mentioned, the liquid equivalent really is the important part of the snowfall data.

[J.Spin]

On 12/11/2020 at 8:42 PM, powderfreak said:

I already miss it snowing every day, despite some nice sun/cloud/caked white, mountain views today.

It looks like that stretch was about six days with snowfall, and it certainly had that classic feel of the typical regime we’ll get into here with constant flakes and pulses of higher intensity snowfall buried within the flow.  It does feel a bit strange to not have flakes after that, but it looks like the potential is back starting today into tomorrow.

The NNE mountains, and especially the Northern Greens with their relative positioning and connection to the Great Lakes, are definitely notable for the number of days you’re going to have snow in the air.  There are certainly climates that get more snow, like parts of the Rockies, the Sierra, and similar high mountain places, but a lot of those climates are drier and their snow typically comes more in batches.  They can go for long periods without any precipitation.  To get into that 100+ days of snow a season type of climate, I think you have to look at places like coastal BC, Hokkaido, parts of Honshu, etc.  There are probably various microclimate spots out there in the world that we just don’t know about, and likely some U.S./Great Lakes places do it was well, but the best combination is going to be a combination of mountains for consistent lift and a body of water for a supply of moisture.

Checking my CoCoRaHS records, it looks like we’re at ~22 days with snow thus far on the season at our site.

[dendrite]

Dreary day

[backedgeapproaching]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dreary day

Got out early this AM before the FROPA and squeezed in hopefully last mountain bike ride of the year.  Maybe also a lawn trim..ha.

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Got out early this AM before the FROPA and squeezed in hopefully last mountain bike ride of the year.  Maybe also a lawn trim..ha.

Wow nice. I’m jealous of your green grass. The sun is shining through the fog now just in time for it to set behind the trees.

[PhineasC]

This thread sure died. Not even a little bread and butter to talk about. Hope it picks back up soon.

[bwt3650]

54 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This thread sure died. Not even a little bread and butter to talk about. Hope it picks back up soon.

10-20 likely in my northern Jersey home has my focus there these last few days.  Those storms are hard to come by down here.  I'm hoping the bread and butter starts up next week when I get back.  Its crazy that I might find more powder and open terrain this week in the Poconos, than the greens.  I'll throw some pictures up Thurs if this thing materializes.  Our time is coming up North tho.  I still think we get something around Christmas to get things going.

[alex]

58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This thread sure died. Not even a little bread and butter to talk about. Hope it picks back up soon.

There should be  som  B&B tomorrow... But doesn't seem like a big deal. Pack got decimated - down to 5"! Skiing was awesome but non manmade trails took a beating 

[#NoPoles]

I was surprised we lost so much pack, i think the warmest it got was 40. It was 36-38 for a long time

[alex]

21 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I was surprised we lost so much pack, i think the warmest it got was 40. It was 36-38 for a long time

And close to 100% humidity for a good chance of the time. Had it been 40/25 it wouldn't have made a dent 

[powderfreak]

Light snow almost like a frozen mist has at least whitened surfaces again at 1500ft.

[backedgeapproaching]

Just virga so far here

[backedgeapproaching]

So this guy strolls up today, squats and takes a nice piss on my daughter's hat she left in the yard.  bastard! Got to figure out how to upload the video, pretty funny.

 

 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

So this guy strolls up today, squats and takes a nice piss on my daughter's hat she left in the yard.  bastard! Got to figure out how to upload the video, pretty funny

 

That's amazing!  Ha, went right up to the hat and marked it.  "It's mine now!"

[alex]

Looks like a boring stretch coming up but hey, it's snowing