NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[jculligan]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Euro now on board with something potentially big this weekend.   Cutter or coastal?   Finally something to track.   Glad we got a soaker yesterday before the ground froze.  Trees needed that for an early spring start.

I have to believe the Euro is too wound up with its inland solution, but man...what a crush job for the Catskills/Dacks. The GFS/Canadian are showing a really nice event for most of us. At this point, I just want to log my first inch so the bar has been set pretty low lol.

[dryslot]

Ended up with 2.89" for this event, Ground thoroughly saturated.

[PhineasC]

GYX talking up some nice squalls for tomorrow for the usual areas. 

[Lava Rock]

Ended up with 2.89" for this event, Ground thoroughly saturated.

Only 1.98" here.

[Lava Rock]

Euro now on board with something potentially big this weekend.   Cutter or coastal?   Finally something to track.   Glad we got a soaker yesterday before the ground froze.  Trees needed that for an early spring start.

Sat looks wet.

[mreaves]

21 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Ended up with 2.89" for this event, Ground thoroughly saturated.

Only 1.98" here.

Looks like Stein is still beating you down. 

[J.Spin]

November Totals

Accumulating Storms:  6

Snowfall:  23.3”

Liquid Equivalent: 3.82”

 

Calendar Year Liquid: 45.95”

 

While we didn’t have one of those early to mid-November starts to the snowpack like we’ve had the past couple of seasons, this was still a decent November for snowfall.  It’s interesting to note that despite last November’s snowpack starting on the 8^th of the month, it had a fairly average 17.8” of snow, so this month surpassed it in that respect.  This November was still well behind the 34.3” from 2018 though.

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Looks like Stein is still beating you down. 

Waiting on some cold, And looks like we will keep waiting.

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

November Totals

Accumulating Storms:  6

Snowfall:  23.3”

Liquid Equivalent: 3.82”

 

Calendar Year Liquid: 45.95”

 

While we didn’t have one of those early to mid-November starts to the snowpack like we’ve had the past couple of seasons, this was still a decent November for snowfall.  It’s interesting to note that despite last November’s snowpack starting on the 8^th of the month, it had a fairly average 17.8” of snow, so this month surpassed it in that respect.  This November was still well behind the 34.3” from 2018 though.

Wow, nice haul.

8.9" in November according to the Randolph observer. A bit off the normal pace.

Many people around Randolph Hill have been commenting that it's been a slow start, but they expect it to pick up soon. 

Definitely been a different winter so far between our two areas. I can see why folks in your area would be scratching their heads about all the grousing in other spots. There have been several nice events already.

[J.Spin]

48 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GYX talking up some nice squalls for tomorrow for the usual areas. 

Yeah, cold air and snow profiles are building back in as we speak.  Most models show 3 to 4 potential shots of snow in just the next 7 to 8 days, so buckle up for some typical NNE December weather.  Potential coastal systems often get the most attention, but up here we know not to overlook the…

[J.Spin]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Wow, nice haul.

8.9" in November according to the Randolph observer. A bit off the normal pace.

Many people around Randolph Hill have been commenting that it's been a slow start, but they expect it to pick up soon. 

Definitely been a different winter so far between our two areas. I can see why folks in your area would be scratching their heads about all the grousing in other spots. There have been several nice events already.

That is a bit off the normal November snowfall pace over there in your area – I think you said the average inches of snow for November there were probably in the mid-teens, which is similar to what my data indicate here.  You guys had more October snowfall than we did over here though, so I bet you’re not too far off normal pace on the season overall.  Average daily snowfall really starts to ramp up now that we’re into December though, moving into the 1-2” per day range, and with the pattern that the models show, snow should pick right up as your neighbors suggest.

[backedgeapproaching]

29 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

November Totals

Accumulating Storms:  6

Snowfall:  23.3”

Liquid Equivalent: 3.82”

 

Calendar Year Liquid: 45.95”

 

While we didn’t have one of those early to mid-November starts to the snowpack like we’ve had the past couple of seasons, this was still a decent November for snowfall.  It’s interesting to note that despite last November’s snowpack starting on the 8^th of the month, it had a fairly average 17.8” of snow, so this month surpassed it in that respect.  This November was still well behind the 34.3” from 2018 though.

And BTV with only 2.7" for NOV.  Everyone knows the N Greens magic, but that is still is 8x the snowfall.  Truly isolated to upslope only areas.  Maybe NEK too, haven't looked closely.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

And BTV with only 2.7" for NOV.  Everyone knows the N Greens magic, but that is still is 8x the snowfall.  Truly isolated to upslope only areas.  Maybe NEK too, haven't looked closely.

Even here, 16-17” or whatever it is in November, I’ll have to check my notes.  We did really well with that warning criteria snow back on Nov 2-3.  That was 7-12” for the lower elevations around the Spine and 12-18” at 1500ft and above.  BTV was like partly cloudy for some of that.  I’m still impressed with the 8.5” snow depth I had after that one and it had like 0.75” water on 10” snow.  Was a legit snowfall. 

Crazy it’s been a month now since that event.

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Wow, nice haul.

8.9" in November according to the Randolph observer. A bit off the normal pace.

Many people around Randolph Hill have been commenting that it's been a slow start, but they expect it to pick up soon. 

Definitely been a different winter so far between our two areas. I can see why folks in your area would be scratching their heads about all the grousing in other spots. There have been several nice events already.

This is a classic case where the actual inches of snow flakes that have fallen from the sky since October 1 in Randolph may not be that far from normal to be honest... but the “feel” and vibe is of a very slow start.  Also starts to feel slow when the bigger events were 4-6 weeks ago in October and early Nov.

Sort of like the opposite when you get one snowfall early and then it’s cold, that snow sticks around and feels like an “early start” but you are actually behind other years snowfall, but those years featured a lot more grass and melt.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

This is a classic case where the actual inches of snow flakes that have fallen from the sky since October 1 in Randolph may not be that far from normal to be honest... but the “feel” and vibe is of a very slow start.

Sort of like the opposite when you get one snowfall early and then it’s cold, that snow sticks around and feels like an “early start” but you are actually behind other years snowfall, but those years featured a lot more grass and melt.

That is partly true, but my average in November is around 15” so definitely somewhat off the pace. There is a ton of variability in the data given it is an early month, however, so 9 inches is probably around the median. The locals here have said the biggest thing setting this November apart so far is the lack of any sort of persistent cold and that the snow that did fall barely even lasted a day, much less formed any sort of pack. Things look to turn around starting tomorrow, however. 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That is partly true, but my average in November is around 15” so definitely somewhat off the pace. There is a ton of variability in the data given it is an early month, however, so 9 inches is probably around the median. The locals here have said the biggest thing setting this November apart so far is the lack of any sort of persistent cold and that the snow that did fall barely even lasted a day, much less formed any sort of pack. Things look to turn around starting tomorrow, however. 

Yeah I was throwing in the October snowfall for a season to date analysis.  And honestly 2018 skews your November snow quite a bit LOL.  The certainly count, just like the absurdly low months, but on a smaller sample size that type of massive month plays a role.  I think you are right on the median.

Just another one of the ways the NNE mountains get to "normal"... but also leaving a feeling of being unsatisfied.  There are definitely seasons when we get solid snowfall numbers when you add the inches up, but it feels off.  Not saying this is one of those but the early start has that vibe.  Like when I would complain in a main thread and then someone is like "But Stowe is showing 275" for a seasonal total on the mountain...and you aren't satisfied?"

[J.Spin]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Things look to turn around starting tomorrow, however. 

Ah, now you’re talking like a NNEer – this area is pretty good when it comes to getting back to the snow business after warm interludes.  As I mentioned, even though every storm won’t necessarily be all snow, just about every storm that hits us from here on out will have a really good shot of having some snow/frozen.  Heck even this next batch of potential snow with the squalls you mentioned is backside snow from Winter Storm Dane that has been hitting those areas south of the lakes with snow, but giving generally rain this far to the east.  It sat there for a bit, but it’s moving on now and bringing the cold/snow through.

[powderfreak]

It is funny looking at the maps.  Phin, I wouldn't worry about it, lol.  Most other NNE spots southeast of you haven't seen more than Dusting-2" yet.  The forum will revolt when you start talking about how bad it is.

Randolph is still by far the highest total around.

[bwt3650]

The overall snow numbers have been decent up here, but it def has that slow start feel when you are in December, and we have mountains closed and probably looking at only a few trails into early next week.  I'm not worried though, elevation should do it's thing even in the marginal setups now and we could be rolling in ten days or so.

[J.Spin]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is funny looking at the maps.  Phin, I wouldn't worry about it, lol.  Most other NNE spots southeast of you haven't seen more than Dusting-2" yet.  The forum will revolt when you start talking about how bad it is.

Randolph is still by far the highest total around.

LOL, nice perspective PF.  At the moment, the NVT crew are probably about the only folks Phin could go in the entire Northeastern U.S. and get any thoughts of sympathy with respect to snowfall issues.

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is funny looking at the maps.  Phin, I wouldn't worry about it, lol.  Most other NNE spots southeast of you haven't seen more than Dusting-2" yet.  The forum will revolt when you start talking about how bad it is.

Randolph is still by far the highest total around.

It’s the cutters. Yes, I realize after my 2 inches of driving 50 degree rain it may then snow a couple inches onto my mud the next day. But then the temps go back into the upper 30s as it dries out anyway. It’s been like that for November. I could just do without the warm cutters and the persistently above-normal temps in between the couple inches of upslope. It’s not the raw snow total number I am really worried about. Randolph can nickle and dime a decent season together. 

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

The overall snow numbers have been decent up here, but it def has that slow start feel when you are in December, and we have mountains closed and probably looking at only a few trails into early next week.  I'm not worried though, elevation should do it's thing even in the marginal setups now and we could be rolling in ten days or so.

Yes, I realize I am a weenie but the weather has been putrid for the ski places as well. Hopefully that changes next week, but an inland runner this weekend wouldn’t help, even with a couple inches of fluff on the backside. It needs to be colder and for longer. 

[backedgeapproaching]

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even here, 16-17” or whatever it is in November, I’ll have to check my notes.  We did really well with that warning criteria snow back on Nov 2-3.  That was 7-12” for the lower elevations around the Spine and 12-18” at 1500ft and above.  BTV was like partly cloudy for some of that.  I’m still impressed with the 8.5” snow depth I had after that one and it had like 0.75” water on 10” snow.  Was a legit snowfall. 

Crazy it’s been a month now since that event.

Yea, that's pretty solid for Stowe village.

I was just checking locally Cocorahs and I'm at 3.0" and the nearest guy to me who is at 1900' east of the spine is at 8.5", obviously there will be a difference when the  place is at almost 2K, but nothing outlandish.  Nov pattern was pretty bad, outside of those Upslope events up north.

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, I realize I am a weenie but the weather has been putrid for the ski places as well. Hopefully that changes next week, but an inland runner this weekend wouldn’t help, even with a couple inches of fluff on the backside. It needs to be colder and for longer. 

It has been very rough for the ski areas... just busting your balls .  We were closed today, never happens at Stowe!  It probably had some to do with a COVID season and not worth exposing people to any contact with this product, but we probably should've been closing on these days in the past anyway.  It was always a pride thing to never shut down, even in the worst weather.

[bwt3650]

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, I realize I am a weenie but the weather has been putrid for the ski places as well. Hopefully that changes next week, but an inland runner this weekend wouldn’t help, even with a couple inches of fluff on the backside. It needs to be colder and for longer. 

We are all weenies, so you're not alone.  I do feel what you are saying tho; walking out to the one lift spinning through grass and mud the day after Thanksgiving is not what I dreamt about all summer.  I'm just trying to stay optimistic and let the averages play out.  Where you and I come from, if you waste a couple coastals and a two week cold period, your winter might be done.  I just think once we get some pack going and the cold sets in, we will feel better about this year and the NNE winter will do its thing...

[bwt3650]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has been very rough for the ski areas... just busting your balls .  We were closed today, never happens at Stowe!  It probably had some to do with a COVID season and not worth exposing people to any contact with this product, but we probably should've been closing on these days in the past anyway.  It was always a pride thing to never shut down, even in the worst weather.

Good for the reputation to get open and stay open, but honestly, from a business perspective this year, there is zero to gain.  They are not selling a day pass and the season pass holders are not even spending a couple bucks on food and alcohol this year.  

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

We are all weenies, so you're not alone.  I do feel what you are saying tho; walking out to the one lift spinning through grass and mud the day after Thanksgiving is not what I dreamt about all summer.  I'm just trying to stay optimistic and let the averages play out.  Where you and I come from, if you waste a couple coastals and a two week cold period, your winter might be done.  I just think once we get some pack going and the cold sets in, we will feel better about this year and the NNE winter will do its thing...

Thanks for getting where I am coming from. 

[dendrite]

CAR and MIA are both 57° right now. At least CAR feels warmer with a 52° dew vs 42° at Miami.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The NNE thread is now a pretty good read.

 

[powderfreak]

Some flurries this morning.  Headed in the right direction now.