NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[alex]

Flipped to snow

[backedgeapproaching]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

We love it here.  It is amazing how this place will snow when just down 242 in Montgomery there’s nothing at all.  It’s like the opposite of NJ; there, you ALWAYS bet the under and for a changeover hours before it’s predicted.  Most winters consist of tracking two or three coastal a year if you are lucky (13-14 and 14-15 were exceptions)  For a skier/rider, I love it here, and the northern greens in general for that constant refresh every couple days.  Jay, Stowe, and Smuggs are where it’s at east coast for powder days.  Even without the snow though, we love just exploring the mountains and hiking up here...very chill.  I’ve heard the Newport area is decent for summer activities too, but with Covid, we didn’t really get out there this year.  I’m hoping in another 3-4 weeks the snow really gets going up here.  It will be fun to compare to you guys in the area and I’m interested to see how phin does at his spot.

Small blessing I guess with COVID is the flexbililty to be where you want to be for long stetches. (As opposed to weekend warrioring it)  Is everyone just homeschooling their kids? (Don't know if you have any or not, more a general question)

My wife's cousin has lived and Brooklyn for 10+ years and bought a 2nd place in Manchester recently and will be here reomtely until they are needed full time back in the office.  They enrolled their only child in school here for the year.

[PhineasC]

34 flippin’

[alex]

Of course 2 minutes after flipping it stopped 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, alex said:

Of course 2 minutes after flipping it stopped 

Lol was about to post the same. 

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Back over to snow at about 11:15am at 1,500ft.

White rain is more like it but it is snow melting in contact.

Beyond the immediate changeover as the system heads east, most (but certainly not all) models have a secondary round of backside snow that kicks off in the late afternoon today and continues overnight into tomorrow.  I haven’t felt like it’s serious enough to look deeper into the models and see if there’s some sort trailing upper level feature or something, but the BTV NWS AFD doesn’t mention anything, so it’s likely not too well defined or substantial.  They do note the potential for a bit of snow though:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1228 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 1221 PM EST Monday...Behind this front, as cold air begins to filter in, scattered snow showers are likely for the higher terrain. Snow accumulations are expected to be light, an inch or less.

 

We picked up 0.1” of snow on the front side of the system, and I didn’t see anything accumulate here on the immediate back side.  We’ll see if anything develops and gets down to this elevation in that potential secondary round of snow.

[J.Spin]

Well, in line with my comments above, snow recently started up here at the house, and it’s having no trouble accumulating now with the colder temperatures.

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Well, in line with my comments above, snow recently started up here at the house, and it’s having no trouble accumulating now with the colder temperatures.

2 inches expected?

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Well, in line with my comments above, snow recently started up here at the house, and it’s having no trouble accumulating now with the colder temperatures.

Persistent flurry up this way.  Haven’t seen any accums under 1500ft... there was a tenth of two blowing around up at the hill.

[wxeyeNH]

I only got .60" of rain.  A few snow showers at the begining yesterday PM and some freezing drizzle in the evening.  Axis of heavy precip seemed to be further SE than modeled.  Good for the most severe drought areas.

[PhineasC]

28 with light snow/flurries. It is laying without issue so a minuscule coating is forming on the deck. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

2 inches expected?

1-12 is always in the forecast with upslope for j. spin.  

[PhineasC]

Some upslope starting to develop on radar. 

[powderfreak]

Light it up.  It’s dumping on the Spine.  Snowing much steadier here.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.89” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 33.1 F

Sky: Snow (2-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

[PhineasC]

Snowing decently here now. Just a few wisps on radar.  

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

2 inches expected?

It’s hard to say at this point, but it looks like we’ve already got that inch that the BTV NWS AFD talked about.  As PF noted, the echoes are exploding as moisture hits the spine:

[CoastalWx]

Just looked on radar and higher tilts from BTV looked good for more than an inch that’s for sure. 

[J.Spin]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just looked on radar and higher tilts from BTV looked good for more than an inch that’s for sure. 

Yeah, it seems like there’s moisture there, you just never know quite how it will play out in any given spot with respect to Froude (i.e. will it start to get blown downwind etc.).  Whatever happens at this point though, the back side of this system is delivering more here than the front side.

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just looked on radar and higher tilts from BTV looked good for more than an inch that’s for sure. 

Extremely dry fluffy snow here.  Not J.Spin's inch but likely around a half inch on the wooden garden table I measure on, ha.  There's no moisture in this at all, the flakes stack like potato chips in a bag.

Just as reference when looking at radar between my spot and J.Spin... one can see how J.Spin is right in the max Spine axis.  There's a decent amount of downwind drift, seen as the scan angle decreases it spreads eastward, but J's in the atmospheric sweet spot.

[ChasingFlakes]

6 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Small blessing I guess with COVID is the flexbililty to be where you want to be for long stetches. (As opposed to weekend warrioring it)  Is everyone just homeschooling their kids? (Don't know if you have any or not, more a general question)

My wife's cousin has lived and Brooklyn for 10+ years and bought a 2nd place in Manchester recently and will be here reomtely until they are needed full time back in the office.  They enrolled their only child in school here for the year.

I've been considering moving up here.  I wish I could get a 3-6 month lease or something starting in January.  If anyone has any insight into renting or finding a place to stay, that'd be great.  I'm graduating in December from the Media Studies and Production program at Temple, a job in Burlington would be sweet.  Trying to gtfo of PA.  

[backedgeapproaching]

18 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I've been considering moving up here.  I wish I could get a 3-6 month lease or something starting in January.  If anyone has any insight into renting or finding a place to stay, that'd be great.  I'm graduating in December from the Media Studies and Production program at Temple, a job in Burlington would be sweet.  Trying to gtfo of PA.  

I moved up from West Chester in 2014, albeit permanently.

Can't speak for NVT, but around here rentals and long term leases are scarce and most that are available are pricey. But since it seems your young and no attachments(kids, etc) maybe able find a smaller place--studio/1bed, but again not sure about BTV market, but assume stuff is high demand.

[powderfreak]

J.Spin has to be getting relatively crushed.  I usually take the 30dbz yellow pixels, assume downstream drift, and then know that those echos are usually 1"/hr rates at least.  That was a pretty good pulse for the Spine in J.Spin's area.

 

Looks like I-89 and RT 2 are still just wet in Bolton, but looks like it's snowing decently in the low elevations (300ft) along the Spine.  Once those roads give in to the cold temperatures tonight and salt doesn't work as well, it'll be quite slick out there on the Interstate through the Spine.

[PhineasC]

Solid coating out there now. Wind blowing it all over the place. 

[bwt3650]

7 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Small blessing I guess with COVID is the flexbililty to be where you want to be for long stetches. (As opposed to weekend warrioring it)  Is everyone just homeschooling their kids? (Don't know if you have any or not, more a general question)

My wife's cousin has lived and Brooklyn for 10+ years and bought a 2nd place in Manchester recently and will be here reomtely until they are needed full time back in the office.  They enrolled their only child in school here for the year.

My 3 were technically doing hybrid, going two days a week but it’s almost not worth it at this point.  They shut the schools down for two weeks at a time if anyone is confirmed positive (staff or teacher) so they haven’t been there in a few weeks and while we are up here, Vt. got added to the travel list so they would have to quarantine for 14 days when we get back.  Plus they want to shut things down around Christmas again.  I’m a huge proponent of in person learning vs. virtual, but at this point it makes sense to just stay virtual until the schools are ready to open back up fully.  

Covid definitely provided a rare opportunity to spend big chunks of time up this year.  I also look at it as an opportunity for them to experience a true nne winter, rather than the quick trips so I’m hoping somehow it turns into a cool memory.  Me...I’m just looking forward to killing the empty northern greens this year if we get a decent winter.  I have to go back to nj every once in a while, but I’ll probably get more time at jay and Stowe than any other year.  Looking forward to venturing into nh a couple times too to check out cannon and maybe wildcat.

[bwt3650]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Light it up.  It’s dumping on the Spine.  Snowing much steadier here.

You got me down there tonight...just started picking up, but prob only 1/4” or so.  We got about a half inch earlier before it quit midday.

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I've been considering moving up here.  I wish I could get a 3-6 month lease or something starting in January.  If anyone has any insight into renting or finding a place to stay, that'd be great.  I'm graduating in December from the Media Studies and Production program at Temple, a job in Burlington would be sweet.  Trying to gtfo of PA.  

Jay was doing long term 2br condo rentals a month ago.  It’s going to be a ghost town with the border closed, so might be worth checking out .

[J.Spin]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

J.Spin has to be getting relatively crushed.  I usually take the 30dbz yellow pixels, assume downstream drift, and then know that those echos are usually 1"/hr rates at least.  That was a pretty good pulse for the Spine in J.Spin's area.

We’re right around 2” for the event as of ~9:00 P.M., so it looks like snowfall is running in the 0.5”/hr range on average since it started.  The snowfall is pretty robust right now though; with decent flake sizes and no wind, it’s stacking up fairly well.

The updated BTV NWS AFD does indicate the quick appearance of the upslope snow showers:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

806 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 801 PM EST Monday...Upslope snow showers have quickly materialized along the northern/central Green Mountains and across the Northeast Kingdom. The precipitation forecast has been updated to include mention of light snow across these areas, continuing until early Tuesday morning. Snowfall accumulations are expected of 1 inch or less during this time.

Checking on our point forecast, there seem to be plenty of chances for snow going forward in the immediate future; snow is listed in the next six periods of the forecast right through Thanksgiving Day.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

My 3 were technically doing hybrid, going two days a week but it’s almost not worth it at this point.  They shut the schools down for two weeks at a time if anyone is confirmed positive (staff or teacher) so they haven’t been there in a few weeks and while we are up here, Vt. got added to the travel list so they would have to quarantine for 14 days when we get back.  Plus they want to shut things down around Christmas again.  I’m a huge proponent of in person learning vs. virtual, but at this point it makes sense to just stay virtual until the schools are ready to open back up fully.  

Covid definitely provided a rare opportunity to spend big chunks of time up this year.  I also look at it as an opportunity for them to experience a true nne winter, rather than the quick trips so I’m hoping somehow it turns into a cool memory.  Me...I’m just looking forward to killing the empty northern greens this year if we get a decent winter.  I have to go back to nj every once in a while, but I’ll probably get more time at jay and Stowe than any other year.  Looking forward to venturing into nh a couple times too to check out cannon and maybe wildcat.

Same here. Zero reason to sit in MD with 40s and drizzle locked down. 

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

My 3 were technically doing hybrid, going two days a week but it’s almost not worth it at this point.  They shut the schools down for two weeks at a time if anyone is confirmed positive (staff or teacher) so they haven’t been there in a few weeks and while we are up here, Vt. got added to the travel list so they would have to quarantine for 14 days when we get back.  Plus they want to shut things down around Christmas again.  I’m a huge proponent of in person learning vs. virtual, but at this point it makes sense to just stay virtual until the schools are ready to open back up fully.  

Covid definitely provided a rare opportunity to spend big chunks of time up this year.  I also look at it as an opportunity for them to experience a true nne winter, rather than the quick trips so I’m hoping somehow it turns into a cool memory.  Me...I’m just looking forward to killing the empty northern greens this year if we get a decent winter.  I have to go back to nj every once in a while, but I’ll probably get more time at jay and Stowe than any other year.  Looking forward to venturing into nh a couple times too to check out cannon and maybe wildcat.

When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade.  As cheesy as it sounds.