StormfanaticInd Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Got a feeling this winter will be better than the past couple of years which is not saying much 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 5 hours ago, RogueWaves said: I was referring specifically to the Jan 12th(??) System that had warning headlines flying for ice and/or snow, neither of which materialized to storm levels. And it was across multiple states not just here in MI. Worst fail in decades. Some offices even issued an explanation or attempted one. Don't think any of the 3 Lower Mich offices did tho My memory of that specific storm is kind of vague since I personally was never on the wintry side of it, but wasn't that the storm where they were predicting an epic ice storm for some areas that just did not materialize? Dont remember the snow aspect. We ended up with very heavy rain which ended as freezing rain then a dusting of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 GFS says okay go time 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Let the feet of gfs modeled snow begin. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 11 hours ago, Stebo said: GFS says okay go time Last year you could see the pattern setting up to favor an usually far south early snow, which actually ended up happening at the end of October. This would take it to the next level though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 11 hours ago, Stebo said: GFS says okay go time But what's the kuchera accums?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Last year you could see the pattern setting up to favor an usually far south early snow, which actually ended up happening at the end of October. This would take it to the next level though. Just a few days ago was the anniversary of the record earliest measureable snowfall for part of the sub, 1947. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Just a few days ago was the anniversary of the record earliest measureable snowfall for part of the sub, 1947. So you're saying that the GFS actually has a shot then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 22 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Just a few days ago was the anniversary of the record earliest measureable snowfall for part of the sub, 1947. From DVN a few days back.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 On 9/26/2020 at 1:08 AM, StormfanaticInd said: Got a feeling this winter will be better than the past couple of years which is not saying much I sure hope so. I am snow starved after several back to back winters that have failed to produce much of anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: I sure hope so. I am snow starved after several back to back winters that have failed to produce much of anything. Don't worry. This winter will be an absolute banger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Officially in La Nina conditions per WMO. Thinking a moderate event is becoming increasingly likely with strong trade winds continuing near and east of the dateline. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 La nina can be fun depending on how strong the southeast ridge is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 this is our year 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: this is our year But, but, you say that every year, lol (seriously tho, trend's our friend. I'm on board) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Too much excitement.It’ll come down to more than just the Nina, per usual.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 12 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: this is our year Moderate Ninas can be very fun. The last few have been plentiful for the region outside of the Ohio Valley, even then 08 worked out for them in a few cases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 31 minutes ago, Stebo said: Moderate Ninas can be very fun. The last few have been plentiful for the region outside of the Ohio Valley, even then 08 worked out for them in a few cases. Iiuc we may even be looking at a strong Nina. Tradition says that'd be worse for us. But lately everything has bucked tradition. Counting on this to do the same. I do feel that if winter comes in fast and furious it will leave the same way. By that I mean early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Iiuc we may even be looking at a strong Nina. Tradition says that'd be worse for us. But lately everything has bucked tradition. Counting on this to do the same. I do feel that if winter comes in fast and furious it will leave the same way. By that I mean early. Thats my favourite type of winter. Early season snow and cold and then spring starts fast mid march 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Thats my favourite type of winter. Early season snow and cold and then spring starts fast mid march An early departure is alright with me as long as we define 'early' as March, not December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Looks like lake effect snow showers off Superior tomorrow into Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 13 hours ago, Malacka11 said: An early departure is alright with me as long as we define 'early' as March, not December. Unfotunately I meant exactly that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 13 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks. 64-65 was pretty decent. Mby got 13+ from that storm. Ofc I was 8 (mos) and remember only an after photo. @ Detroit. The land of 30+ year Big Dog droughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 this is going to be a 2020 la nina, no sense talking about the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Probably gonna be a big winter for tornadoes and severe weather across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: 64-65 was pretty decent. Mby got 13+ from that storm. Ofc I was 8 (mos) and remember only an after photo. @ Detroit. The land of 30+ year Big Dog droughts. Decent winter. good on snowcover but there were a few thaws. This was a good storm, broke the big snowstorm drought of the '30s-50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 49 minutes ago, andyhb said: Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point. This is a 2020 Nina. No point in comparing with the 00's. Thx anyways 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 52 minutes ago, andyhb said: Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point. Euro and CFS both have a robust easterly wind burst over the next 2 weeks. Still a lot of cold subsurface anomalies esp below eastern Nino regions. I would expect the ENSO regions to cool down over the next few weeks solidifying a moderate Nina come NDJ. Even across western regions it has cooled down some over the past few weeks. We currently have an east based La Nina right now. 2017 and 2007 are the two most recent east-based La Nina’s. 2013 too if you want to consider it as it was borderline weak Nina. I would assume Nina's are fairly dry for your region in the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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