cyclone77 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 On 9/10/2020 at 5:41 PM, A-L-E-K said: Gotta roll the dice with big warm cutters if we ever wanna get lucky Margin of victory with cutters always seems a bit iffy due to dry slot issues, positive-tilt warm-sector convection robbing the cold-sector precip, overaggressive WAA, etc. Hybrid clipper systems is where it's at. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 8 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Margin of victory with cutters always seems a bit iffy due to dry slot issues, positive-tilt warm-sector convection robbing the cold-sector precip, overaggressive WAA, etc. Hybrid clipper systems is where it's at. Those hybrid clippers seem to always overperform as well, at least locally. I will happily skip the models constantly shitting the bed and each storm becoming a strung out piece of garbage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Could do without the floods of '08 though, especially since we essentially already saw them repeated in late summer 2018 except without the spinning things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 hybrid clippers are awesome. Seriously though I would take 2007-08 in a heart beat even though I am more of a snow cover lover. As someone who loves snow cover it was absolutely torture to see snow pack constantly getting demolished by brief thaws and even torches (remember early January 2008 torch?). But that Winter the snow just immediately always returned. I don't care how many thaws mother nature slits the the wrist with, I cannot diss a near 80" season. It would be nice though if she could time her fits a little better, in 2007-08 a 10" snowpack was demolished 2 days before Christmas and then we ended up with the deepest white Easter on record. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Early January '08 torch actually brought tornadoes to northern IL and far southern WI. There's a well known video from on board a Union Pacific freight train as it gets de-railed by an EF3 at Lawrence (near Harvard), IL. https://www.weather.gov/lot/07Jan2008_tornado 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 Can we just lock this in Nov-Feb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2020 Author Share Posted September 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Gino27 said: Can we just lock this in Nov-Feb? Not sure if it's just me, but can't see image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Not sure if it's just me, but can't see image. I can but I do not know what a post about TS Isaias from August 4th has to do with winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 I really have no Idea what happened. It was supposed to be this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 hard pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 55 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: hard pass Yeah center that west about 300-500 miles and then we are talking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 I think that most of you would agree with me that it would just be nice to feel something again during winter. Last winter wasn't even filled with disappointment, you know? I mean, it was, but a system completely disappearing from existence three days out is just incomparable to a nail-biting, near-miss a county to the north or south. Not that I love near-misses, but at least those are a standard part of any winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Last Winter was better in Michigan then areas just to the south. I cannot say that a Winter with average snowfall featured no fun moments, but it was definitely a weird Winter with a very disappointing December thru mid January. I'm never one to care about storm tracking as much as the actual storms themselves, and actually several of our bigger snowfalls last Winter exceeded expectations. I personally can do without the model fantasies and near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Question for you guys; as an East Coast native, I'm wondering how much a -NAO matters for getting snow here? I'm guessing it doesn't matter as much and could even be a detriment if it's east-based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 A local bell-weather, Ice Cream Paradise closed it doors this week. A sure sign of the coming of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 East based -NAO are good for the Great Lakes. West based can be good if it is weak, if it is stronger than -1 that favors the east coast more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 On 9/14/2020 at 11:11 AM, Malacka11 said: I think that most of you would agree with me that it would just be nice to feel something again during winter. Last winter wasn't even filled with disappointment, you know? I mean, it was, but a system completely disappearing from existence three days out is just incomparable to a nail-biting, near-miss a county to the north or south. Not that I love near-misses, but at least those are a standard part of any winter. did you just curse us? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Baum said: did you just curse us? I would like to think not. I've spent an extensive amount of time in my secret ritual cave and have sacrificed a myriad of wild animals and neighbors alike to ensure a satisfying winter for all midwesterners. If that doesn't do the trick, then winter is cancelled ...In all seriousness, I just thought of something: Surely everyone in here has heard of people being like "F*ck 2020" and talking about how every month of the year, something new goes catastrophically wrong. Thus, it would only make sense for this winter to be an absolute snow/cold fest because that way, people can keep personifying the calendar year and complaining. With kids not even being in school, it would only make sense for all of the snow in the universe to fall this year so that no snow days are awarded. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 On 9/11/2020 at 8:18 PM, madwx said: 2007-08 looks like a good analog. Especially if La Nina gets a little stronger than progged. Would take that winter and following severe weather season This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 21 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: Question for you guys; as an East Coast native, I'm wondering how much a -NAO matters for getting snow here? I'm guessing it doesn't matter as much and could even be a detriment if it's east-based? I am not that great with all the indices during patterns, but I do know that a +NAO can also be good for some snowsorms here. So when we see that the NAO is going positive it's not as much dooms day in the Great Lakes as it would be on the East Coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 hour ago, andyhb said: This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April. Yes, like I said though, pass on repeating the accompanying floods in '08. Far outstripped all the tornadoes except Parkersburg for impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I am not that great with all the indices during patterns, but I do know that a +NAO can also be good for some snowsorms here. So when we see that the NAO is going positive it's not as much dooms day in the Great Lakes as it would be on the East Coast Ok thanks, that makes sense. Well, hopefully we can have a more active pattern this year than last lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 16 hours ago, Stebo said: East based -NAO are good for the Great Lakes. West based can be good if it is weak, if it is stronger than -1 that favors the east coast more. 23 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Strong persistent blocking can be a problem, but -NAO patterns, the ups and downs help spur big storms creation. February 1965 is a good example of a strong storm forming when the -NAO formed. January 1978 speaks for itself. Early January 1918. The November 1950 blizzard in the OV was -NAO. Thanks guys. I guess it's the opposite of what I thought. I always thought an east-based -NAO would put the trough axis too far east for here. Angrysummons - I don't know 2 out of 3 of those storms you mentioned. I will have to look at the January 1978 one on NARR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Ok thanks, that makes sense. Well, hopefully we can have a more active pattern this year than last lol. how many winters have you been in Milwaukee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: how many winters have you been in Milwaukee? This will be my 2nd. Last year I lived in Waukesha. Now I'm on the Greenfield/Milwaukee border. Much more convenient to commute to the airport. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 On 9/14/2020 at 12:11 PM, Malacka11 said: I think that most of you would agree with me that it would just be nice to feel something again during winter. Last winter wasn't even filled with disappointment, you know? I mean, it was, but a system completely disappearing from existence three days out is just incomparable to a nail-biting, near-miss a county to the north or south. Not that I love near-misses, but at least those are a standard part of any winter. More like a rare "day of" storm warning bust for many NWS offices. Worst seen in decades! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 On 9/22/2020 at 6:07 PM, RogueWaves said: More like a rare "day of" storm warning bust for many NWS offices. Worst seen in decades! Actually that's not too difficult for DTX or GRR because of how much they love the old "Winter weather advisory" . We had at least one, maybe 2 of those busts last Winter alone. But in a great Winter we would see many more. I notice that GRR as the worst. 1 to 3" of Lake effect snow? They issue a Winter weather advisory. 5 to 8" of synoptic snow? Winter weather advisory lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually that's not too difficult for DTX or GRR because of how much they love the old "Winter weather advisory" . We had at least one, maybe 2 of those busts last Winter alone. But in a great Winter we would see many more. I notice that GRR as the worst. 1 to 3" of Lake effect snow? They issue a Winter weather advisory. 5 to 8" of synoptic snow? Winter weather advisory lol I do love the November storm that had widespread 8-12" totals and only a Winter Weather Advisory lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 23 hours ago, MIstorm97 said: I do love the November storm that had widespread 8-12" totals and only a Winter Weather Advisory lol That was crazy lol. It was apparent early on that totals were going to bust big, but rather than change the advisory to a warning they just kept upping the accumulation forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 On 9/23/2020 at 9:07 PM, michsnowfreak said: Actually that's not too difficult for DTX or GRR because of how much they love the old "Winter weather advisory" . We had at least one, maybe 2 of those busts last Winter alone. But in a great Winter we would see many more. I notice that GRR as the worst. 1 to 3" of Lake effect snow? They issue a Winter weather advisory. 5 to 8" of synoptic snow? Winter weather advisory lol I was referring specifically to the Jan 12th(??) System that had warning headlines flying for ice and/or snow, neither of which materialized to storm levels. And it was across multiple states not just here in MI. Worst fail in decades. Some offices even issued an explanation or attempted one. Don't think any of the 3 Lower Mich offices did tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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