Hoosier Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 So we are looking at a La Nina of some strength... possibly a moderate peak. Could be stronger than 2017-18 but not as strong as the one in 2010-11. In what is almost akin to a hell freezing over moment, Weatherbell/JB are going with a mild winter for the east. But we are not exactly the east (for the most part) and while there is a mild risk, I'd rather be in our region. Anyway, post your seasonal forecasts, discussions, etc here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Warm Tongue of Death will be a common theme in Ohio this year. As for the region as a whole, I expect above normal temps/precip/snow especially north of 80. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Gotta roll the dice with big warm cutters if we ever wanna get lucky 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: So we are looking at a La Nina of some strength... possibly a moderate peak. Could be stronger than 2017-18 but not as strong as the one in 2010-11. In what is almost akin to a hell freezing over moment, Weatherbell/JB are going with a mild winter for the east. But we are not exactly the east (for the most part) and while there is a mild risk, I'd rather be in our region. Anyway, post your seasonal forecasts, discussions, etc here. Moderate La Nina... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 28 minutes ago, Stebo said: Warm Tongue of Death will be a common theme in Ohio this year. As for the region as a whole, I expect above normal temps/precip/snow especially north of 80. Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh. Agree though. Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one. A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 this may be the year I finally decide to leave Michigan because of winter driving - Me last year but also 15 years in a row 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 41 minutes ago, Stebo said: Warm Tongue of Death will be a common theme in Ohio this year. As for the region as a whole, I expect above normal temps/precip/snow especially north of 80. 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh. Agree though. Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one. A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter. I mean, he's not wrong. We know geography is not in our favor, but we'll still whine and complain when the rug gets swept out from under us 72 hours out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 The more I hear about warm forecasts, especially from JB, the more I'll prepare for a Cold/Snowy Winter. Especially after last years fiasco. 13-14' was supposed to be a mild winter IRC... Clearly i'm a bit jaded after last years hype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Gotta roll the dice with big warm cutters if we ever wanna get lucky We tried that last winter. Wasn't pretty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Warm Tongue of Death will be a common theme in Ohio this year. As for the region as a whole, I expect above normal temps/precip/snow especially north of 80. Pain... but yeah you're probably right. I expect us to cash in on some of the more progressive/weaker systems, but the heavier ones will probably stay north like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 I’ll take a cutter pattern all winter. Usually means we cash in or are stuck in nice cold arctic air during a Madison special. Either one is better then a Fargo special which will probably happen from time to time too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Gotta roll the dice with big warm cutters if we ever wanna get luckygonna be mixing a lot fo sho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Can it not be the same temperature on September 10th, Christmas Day, and May 10th, 2021 plz? K thx. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 45 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Can it not be the same temperature on September 10th, Christmas Day, and May 10th, 2021 plz? K thx. 2019-20 we had snow on Halloween, a record heavy early November snowstorm, 54° on Christmas, and accumulating snow on Mother's Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Nice to see the Winter thread going in our forum. Of course anything can happen, but I would be shocked if we did not finish the Winter with above average precipitation, with recent trends of slightly increasing precipitation, and the fact that nina climatology shows an extremely strong correlation for above average precipitation in the Great Lakes. It will probably be some sort of roller coaster Winter, there will probably be be plenty of good times but also plenty of frustration. Nina winters like to set in early then have an extended January thaw at some point mid winter. How the season finishes up is more variable, but we have been in a stretch here of very late Springs. I do like the odds of a snowy Christmas season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 To quote an almanac favorite, "More wet than white." Above normal precip, above normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: To quote an almanac favorite, "More wet than white." Above normal precip, above normal temps In other words...siding with Bastardi lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Frog Town said: The more I hear about warm forecasts, especially from JB, the more I'll prepare for a Cold/Snowy Winter. Especially after last years fiasco. 13-14' was supposed to be a mild winter IRC... Clearly i'm a bit jaded after last years hype. Totally get the jaded part but I can post numerous pre-season outlooks including WxBell's showing '13-14 to be a cold/snowy winter for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Nice to see the Winter thread going in our forum. Of course anything can happen, but I would be shocked if we did not finish the Winter with above average precipitation, with recent trends of slightly increasing precipitation, and the fact that nina climatology shows an extremely strong correlation for above average precipitation in the Great Lakes. It will probably be some sort of roller coaster Winter, there will probably be be plenty of good times but also plenty of frustration. Nina winters like to set in early then have an extended January thaw at some point mod winter. How the season finishes up is more variable, but we have been in a stretch here of very late Springs. I do like the odds of a snowy Christmas season. 00-01 and 05-06. Two ultimate examples of winter terminating post-December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Cary67 said: To quote an almanac favorite, "More wet than white." Above normal precip, above normal temps The almanac loves using that phrase lol. What's funny is it so rarely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 4 hours ago, RogueWaves said: 00-01 and 05-06. Two ultimate examples of winter terminating post-December Yes. 2 examples of Currier and Ives Christmas seasons filled with lots of snow then a very blah Winter after new years. Huge difference though in the fact that we had a deep snowpack that took until mid February to melt off In 2001, whereas in 2006 the snowpack melted right around new years. Of course there was some snow; there is no such thing as Winter completely terminating in this region, but if those are not examples of a front loaded Winter, nothing is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2020 Author Share Posted September 11, 2020 2000-01 is easily the most extreme example of a front loaded winter that I have lived through. ORD had 30.9" in Dec and 8.2" in Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr. The difference was even more extreme at my place as I had more snow in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 As long as we get out of the Late Oct-Early Nov storm, 2 months of nothing, then winter until May pattern; I will be happy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Although 2000-01 was front loaded, we got two decent storms in FM. Feb 2001 we got ~10" of snow and ice pellets followed by an inch of rain. And in March 2001 we got another 10" storm. No real arctic air after December either. To be honest, aside from Jan 1999, Jan 2000 cold outbreak and Dec 2000, we saw 5 crappy winters in a row (1997-2002). Nothing special happened in those 6 years expect for those select few months lol. Now to be fair I was a little kid at the time but still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 On 9/10/2020 at 6:56 PM, Hoosier said: Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh. Agree though. Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one. A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter. I saw the 86mph fastball right down the middle, had to hit that grand slam. And sure they can get stuff but the more moderate the nina gets the less chances they have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I saw the 86mph fastball right down the middle, had to hit that grand slam. And sure they can get stuff but the more moderate the nina gets the less chances they have. A quick glance at recent strong nina years yields normal to above here. Maybe other parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 2007-08 looks like a good analog. Especially if La Nina gets a little stronger than progged. Would take that winter and following severe weather season 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 2 hours ago, madwx said: 2007-08 looks like a good analog. Especially if La Nina gets a little stronger than progged. Would take that winter and following severe weather season 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 3 hours ago, madwx said: 2007-08 looks like a good analog. Especially if La Nina gets a little stronger than progged. Would take that winter and following severe weather season Yes, that's about the pinnacle in both respects, and temperatures weren't too extreme either way to boot both seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now