Stormlover74 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Frustrating that the heavier rain missed this area this morning. Only about a tenth of an inch here. If everything misses this afternoon, we will barely have gotten enough to water the gardens. Frustrating considering the potential this event had. Hopefully the current models are wrong about everything missing to the south and east this afternoon. I think we will get into the action late this afternoon into the evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Sun is out here. Look how much SBCAPE is in place. I expect it to be an active afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 This Copiague NY data looks a touch high but has a valid zero base line. This is one of at least 8 5+ inch reports this morning s LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Rjay said: This is the third such one of these events since 2011 that really straddled the south shore. The Islip deluge in 2013 stretched a bit further inland. *this is off the top of my head. I'm sure @bluewavebluewave will know. Yeah, this was among the heaviest events since 2010 for the general South Shore area 2018 8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73 2017 10-30...ISP....4.02 2015 9-10....Wantagh...6.05 2014 8-13.....ISP....13.51...Massapequa....8.20.....Wantagh...7.84 5-1......JFK....4.92. 2013 6-8...ISP....4.58... 2012 6-25...ISP...4.16 2011 8-28...JFK....5.03... 8-15...JFK....7.80..ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20 2010 3-30...JFK...4.37..ISP...4.82 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Am not quite as concerned about Sunday... not ruling it out but I think Sunday's event will be less on LI... faster flow and not quite as extensive PWAT. Potential yes, needs to be monitored. I think late today-tonight is the key for me. IF the next big band occurs s of LI...that will be the best solution. Copiague near Amitityville is our largest amount that I can find so far (7+"). By the way, there was very little or no lighting associated with the event so far on our land area, at least to my knowledge. Also have my doubts right now about the 12z NAM HRRR solutions. Need to reevaluate at 230P. I wasn't specifically just talking about LI but more region wide. The funny thing is Upton seemed to have been highlighting Sunday as the bigger heavy rain threat day versus today reading their discussion the last couple of days. I am surprised they never issued a flood watch for their forecast area but I guess they don't feel the flooding will be widespread enough today?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 12z Euro has the best rains S of LI--S NJ and into far Eastern LI Most of us get little to nothing from the 2nd batch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 Have seen all model guidance shift to the southeast on heavy rainfall band. I'm reluctant to give up on it, due to instability, proximity of the front and PWAT over 2" through at least 3AM Friday BUT... I have to give up on the outside chance additional amounts for s LI that adding up to 1 ft near Copiague. I did append a MAX rainfall graphic that indicates isolated 4-5" might occur in 1 or 2 locations (this graphic begins at 8PM tonight)... if we get a nice period of training between 6PM and 3AM. If that were to occur where 4+ occurred this morning, then there would be additional overnight flood problems with a couple more reports of entire event totals over 7" on southern LI. Again, uncertainty on overlap. Elsewhere...bands developing now and so by 3A Friday... expecting a couple of 3-5" in NJ s of I80 and maybe the CT coast. That would possibly result in a couple new FFW's by midnight? Offline til 5P. Thanks for all the posts and support for this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 My total here from the heavy rain this morning was 2.59" of rain. Interesting that the 7+" amount only occured a mile away in Copiague, i guess the heaviest of the rain was extremely localized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, wdrag said: Have seen all model guidance shift to the southeast on heavy rainfall band. I'm reluctant to give up on it, due to instability, proximity of the front and PWAT over 2" through at least 3AM Friday BUT... I have to give up on the outside chance additional amounts for s LI that adding up to 1 ft near Copiague. I did append a MAX rainfall graphic that indicates isolated 4-5" might occur in 1 or 2 locations (this graphic begins at 8PM tonight)... if we get a nice period of training between 6PM and 3AM. If that were to occur where 4+ occurred this morning, then there would be additional overnight flood problems with a couple more reports of entire event totals over 7" on southern LI. Again, uncertainty on overlap. Elsewhere...bands developing now and so by 3A Friday... expecting a couple of 3-5" in NJ s of I80 and maybe the CT coast. That would possibly result in a couple new FFW's by midnight? Offline til 5P. Thanks for all the posts and support for this topic. I think models are underdone on the NW side. Dewpoints are in the mid 70's and the cold front is still back by the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Euro bone dry for nnj and nyc for the rest of the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 30 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: My total here from the heavy rain this morning was 2.59" of rain. Interesting that the 7+" amount only occured a mile away in Copiague, i guess the heaviest of the rain was extremely localized? Yeah I think a few miles can make a big difference when it's raining that hard, I also have some doubts about some of these very high totals 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro bone dry for nnj and nyc for the rest of the day none of the models are doing a good job right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Barely anything with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said: My total here from the heavy rain this morning was 2.59" of rain. Interesting that the 7+" amount only occured a mile away in Copiague, i guess the heaviest of the rain was extremely localized? The 4 to 5.4 range was pretty common from SE Nassau to SW Suffolk. NEW YORK ...NASSAU COUNTY... 1 SSW MASSAPEQUA 5.41 855 AM 9/10 COCORAHS MERRICK 4.38 820 AM 9/10 CWOP Wantagh mesonet..................................4.66 ..SUFFOLK COUNTY... WEST GILGO BEACH 4.13 816 AM 9/10 CWOP ENE COPIAGUE 4.05 800 AM 9/10 COCORAHS WSW AMITYVILLE 4.04 800 AM 9/10 COCORAHS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Looks like there’s pop up activity now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Torrential downpour here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Flash Flood Warning needed here immediately. Heaviest rain here in years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Line advancing slowly SE-slow movers here so they're going to dump some serious rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 hours ago, lee59 said: Yeah I think a few miles can make a big difference when it's raining that hard, I also have some doubts about some of these very high totals While I didn't get the big totals being seen elsewhere around the region here's my obs from the local stations that I posted in another thread - "Nice little slug of rain here today but again, I seem to have missed the big numbers. Several stations within a mile are at .64 but 2 miles south it's 1.3 and 3 miles north it's 1-1.2 so there's a pocket where it was considerably less. It's pretty awesome how many stations are on WU in this area now, last year there were only 3 or 4 but now there's a dozen within 5 miles. Pretty cool." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 9 hours ago, Rjay said: The flooding near Massapequa HS was pretty crazy. This photo looks like it was taken about a block away from the high school at the corner of Merrick and Arlyn. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Finally getting some impressive downpours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 bust. :] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: bust. :] Still hardly anything here. One heavy downpour missed just a few miles to the north, going over plainfield. Now it looks as if this next downpour is going to miss us just a few miles to the south. The luck we have getting heavy downpours here in Piscataway is so bad it's almost comical. I've lost count of how many times we missed getting heavy rain by just a couple miles this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Finally pouring here after nothing since earlier this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This photo looks like it was taken about a block away from the high school at the corner of Merrick and Arlyn. And that was taken after the rain relaxed a bit and water levels dropped off. It's right where I had to "turn around, don't drown" and found another way to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Tropical downpours make for the best sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Tropical downpours make for the best sound I'm Jealous. Just light rain here. Yet again a heavy downpour slides just a few miles south of Piscataway. Don't know what it is that causes that to happen so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: I'm Jealous. Just light rain here. Yet again a heavy downpour slides just a few miles south of Piscataway. Don't know what it is that causes that to happen so often. Sucks. Absolutely pouring here I would think a flood advisory will be needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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