wdrag Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 I'll be away for a large portion of this time frame so creating a possible avenue of posts, IF SVR materializes. Have seen a few models with a separate more northerly strong shear zone near I78 to southern LI early tonight. Added a couple of graphics. This matches the SPC D1 Slight Risk. While I think most of the SVR will be south of our forum, needed to cover for a possible potent developing event. You'll know by 7PM what's moving through and/or near KABE. Keep alert on your radar data. IF a supercell develops...real good chance of 1-3" in 30 to 60 minutes. Again, low prob for our area but could not ignore some of the modeled guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 3K NAM Crushes southern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 you mean the 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you mean the 3k nam fixed. regular NAM has nothing LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 the 3k isn't doing a bad job right now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 This line is a fast mover but is not producing anything significant here except for a torrential downpour. Minimal CTC and no significant wind as the 50 DBZ echoes pass directly over me. 0.65” in the rain gauge with this line so the mesoscale models did well with rain amounts with this feature today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Rain and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 TWC noted that 18K are without power in parts of Maryland, seems that part of the Mid Atlantic is a magnet for severe weather this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rain and thunder Nice soaking rain here before a nice cool weekend! @Will - Rutgers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice soaking rain here before a nice cool weekend! @Will - Rutgers A nice steady soaking rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: A nice steady soaking rain .56 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Absolute deluge here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Absolute deluge here. Fringed up here light rain shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Lightning and thunder now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Some of the heaviest rain I have seen in a while. Picked up 1.49" of rain so far today with most of it coming in the 45 mins to and hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Getting quite a bit of lightning and thunder in Long Beach. It looks like the cell over Sandy Hook might graze us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Wow 1.41" here...peak 5 min about 0.35"...1.05" in about 25 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Mostly light rain up here but we’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 4, 2020 Author Share Posted September 4, 2020 Looks like no svr: despite helicity. Max rainfall I think was just s of NAM axis as posted in this topic. I see spotty 1.5" plus in that axis. Probably just didn't have enough CAPE, instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Checked the 12z models for my local area and only the nam 3km was starting to see something...the euro had this heavy band but well north of me...others, not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 1/2 inch on my side of the island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Rain ending, .57 of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Picked up 1.49" of rain for the day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 It drizzled for a minute here, not even enough to wet the ground under the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 .56 here last night-caught the northern edge of the complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 4, 2020 Author Share Posted September 4, 2020 Pending any more data... there was 1 report of SVR in our NJ part of the forum last evening (added graphic) and added the CoCoRaHS 24 hour totals ~6A/3-6A/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 that 3K NAM seemed to do really well but like you said the radar had more bark than bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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