Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Issues? .Ruh roh, Raggy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 How many storms are the Euro and GFS going to whiff on this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012055 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Although convection has waned somewhat since the previous advisory due to mid-level dry air entrainment, Nana still has enough deep convection over and surrounding the low-level center to keep the intensity at 45 kt. Upper-level outflow has continued to improve, with the associated anticyclone becoming more symmetrical. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening. The initial motion estimate is 275/16 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. A pronounced deep-layer to the north of Nana is forecast to remain intact and even build westward over the next few days, keeping Nana moving in a general westward direction for the next 36 hours or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is expected to build west-southwestward across southern Mexico, driving the cyclone west-southwestward as well across northern Central America. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected- consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. The current northeasterly 15 kt of vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions should inhibit development for next 24 hours or so. However, the GFS and ECMWF models both forecast the shear to gradually decrease during the next 48 hours, becoming near 5 kt by 36 hours. The lower vertical shear, coupled with the already impressive outflow pattern, sea-surface temperatures of 29.5-30.5 deg C, and a moistening mid-level environment should allow for gradual strengthening for the next 24 hours, followed by more significant intensification thereafter, which will continue right up until landfall occurs. The NHC official intensity forecast is a blend of the simple consensus intensity model IVCN, and the corrected-consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. A Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.8N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.3N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.2N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0600Z 16.5N 91.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 hour ago, BYG Jacob said: How many storms are the Euro and GFS going to whiff on this year? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes I'd tear my hair out if I was a forecaster this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Nice blowup of convection over the COC. Let’s see what happens with it. Still some E, NE shear present. Rapid motion isn’t helping either but system still looks well positioned for strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Nice blowup of convection over the COC. Let’s see what happens with it. Still some E, NE shear present. Rapid motion isn’t helping either but system still looks well positioned for strengthening I think the rapid speed is one of the only real inhibiting factors at the moment. Looking at the profiles, dry air is still an issue ahead of the system, but generally Nana has created a fairly moist pocket around her with healthy expanding outflow to the east and west. Still some shear to the south of the system, but developing anticyclone in the upper levels will keep the environment favorable until landfall. Definitely could reach hurricane strength tonight into tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Lol. Same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I’ll keep hating. That’s a pretty basic bitch cyan ring. Plus like guru Phil said cayman radar is showing convective anemia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 43 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: I’ll keep hating. That’s a pretty basic bitch cyan ring. Plus like guru Phil said cayman radar is showing convective anemia. CAPPI is not the best radar at 240km though. It's missing shallow core convection at that distance. That cyan ring looks concerning even if the SW eyewall has the big CBs right now that are being easterly sheared. At any rate, we'll have recon soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: C APPI is not the best radar at 240nm though. It's missing the core convection at that distance. That cyan ring looks concerning even if the SW eyewall has the big CBs right now that are being easterly sheared. At any rate, we'll have recon soon. That caymans radar definitely helps paint the shear picture however. Weak northern convection coupled with a lopsided eyewall. It won’t rapidly intensify unless that stuff gets worked out, regardless of a wisp of a cyan ring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: That caymans radar definitely helps paint the shear picture however. Weak northern convection coupled with a lopsided eyewall. It won’t rapidly intensify unless that stuff gets worked out, regardless of a wisp of a cyan ring. That should have been km not nm. But yeah.. I don't necessarily disagree. It has an intact core though. Shear will lessen as time goes on. If anything, the vorticity maximum may be larger than what recon found earlier. The sheared CBs may be stretching the vortex and expanding it some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: That should have been km not nm. But yeah, it has an intact core though. Shear will lessen as time goes on. If anything, the vorticity maximum may be larger than what recon found earlier. The sheared CBs may be stretching the vortex and expanding it some. So no cutiecane micro buzzsaw then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Yeah, only flight level winds. Which if anything doesn't show much in the way of intensification from earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Actually, EXTP pressure was 998.7 so there has been some strengthening. Let's see what the next pass shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: ...and the SFMR is not reporting data Ugh. Every storm these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You said it earlier. It might be too much to ask. It might be time to upgrade the recon fleet. We could go without a couple new F-22 Raptors, right? Try explaining the importance of reliable SFMR to a normal person, let alone a republican. Lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 6 miles to 32...that means it must have GONE THROUGH AN ERC ALREADY ZOMG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Gone in 72 hours lol Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Deep convection redeveloped over the center of Nana during the late afternoon and recent microwave imagery has revealed a small, well-defined low-level eye-like feature, and convective banding around the southwestern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes within the past hour or two has measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 50 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 50 kt. Data from aircraft indicated that the minimum pressure is around 999 mb. Nana is moving westward or 275/16 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it westward over the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build west-southwestward and the dynamical models indicate that this will cause Nana to turn west-southwestward by Thursday. On this track, Nana is expected to approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday night or early Thursday, and move inland over Belize and Guatemala later that day. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario but has trended slightly southward, which seems reasonable given that Nana is vertically deep and is more likely to feel the deep-layered east-northeasterly flow. The new NHC track forecast is close to the FSU Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus model. The tropical storm is currently within an environment of light to moderate northeasterly shear. This shear does not seem to be strong enough to prevent strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of intensification during that time. This is in agreement with the latest SHIPS model output and the HCCA and HWRF models, and calls for Nana to become a hurricane within 24 hours. The shear is forecast to become more northerly just before landfall, and this is likely to slow the intensification process. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by day 3. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Hey when is the pink ring thingie gonna make it RI? It’s almost bedtime here but I can stay up if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NANA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 81.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: You said it earlier. It might be too much to ask. It might be time to upgrade the recon fleet. We could go without a couple new F-22 Raptors, right? A family member i have works on those. The mechanics nicknamed those. "The Craptors" cause they always in the shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NANA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Nana's Central Dense Overcast has become a little better defined, with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. Upper-level outflow continues to be somewhat inhibited over the northern portion of the circulation. SFMR-observed surface winds and adjusted flight-level winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated an intensity of 50 kt. Although northerly shear is likely to limit intensification, the environment is conducive enough for Nana to strengthen into a hurricane later today. The official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS prediction based on the ECMWF global model forecast fields. Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that the motion continues to be generally westward, or 270/16 kt, to the south of a strong mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to be maintained or to build a little more to the west. This should keep Nana on a westward or slightly south-of-west track until it moves into Central America. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction. Observations from the aircraft and NOAA data buoy 42057 indicate that Nana is a rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 n mi or less from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.0N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 16.5N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 16.1N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Last recon showed northerly shear had encroached and broken down Nana's core. New strong convection is going up over the center, but it will have to rebuild a new core against the ongoing shear for intensification to occur. The shear is forecast to drop this afternoon and the system still does have time to stack prior to landfall, but it would need to pull of some impressive restructuring to be anything stronger than a minimal hurricane at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Interesting how NHC still has it intensifying to cat 1 even with the models showing this. I wonder what it's like in the NHC office with basically zero trust in model guidance these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 They’re probably doing all the math themselves on a chalkboard because the models are so unstable lately...(hopefully not, that would be a lot of differential equations!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 11am update now has it maxing out at 70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: 11am update now has it maxing out at 70 mph. In the discussion it says the system is expected to become a hurricane though the time interval this will happen is not shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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