yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF JAMAICA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE OFFSHORE ROATAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 77.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala-Honduras border, including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern Honduras * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional development is expected today and on Wednesday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Honduras beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the vigorous tropical disturbance located south of Jamaica that the NHC has been tracking the past few days across the Caribbean Sea. An earlier report of 35 kt winds this morning from ship MAOR4 is the basis for the 35-kt initial intensity on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. (PTC-16) The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/16 kt, based mainly on past scatterometer surface wind data and passive microwave satellite fix data. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. The disturbance has already developed an upper-level anticyclone, with outflow only restricted in the northeastern quadrant due to northeasterly shear of about 15 kt. This modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air might hinder development for the next 24-36 hours, but model guidance shows that the atmosphere is expected to moisten thereafter and right up until landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then is a little above the consensus at 36 h and 48 h due to the very warm waters, moistening atmosphere, and low shear conditions. The statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that the cyclone could reach hurricane strength just prior to landfall. This alternate scenario will be evaluated on the next advisory cycle. Due to the system's expected proximity to the north coast of Honduras and Roatan Island, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for those areas. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 PTC 16 will either be Nana or short lived Omar shortly at 5pm IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Recon is finding westerlies. They appear to have missed south of the potential vortex and are still in the process of locating it. They'll need to make another pass but closer to Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 So close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Gotcha! We should now have Nana. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Question is will they send out a special update to name it TS Nana or just wait till the 2pm advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Question is will they send out a special update to name it TS Nana or just wait till the 2pm advisory?¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I do know that with such a small and well defined surface vortex this has likely been a TC for ~12 hours, perhaps yesterday evening. But maybe it was too small to get picked up by the earlier ASCAT, though the most recent scans missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Nice little, tight core now... Nana for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Yeah this thing likely ends up Hurricane Nana before landfall. Already well-defined core with 60 kt flight level winds and 50 kt SFMR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 There it is... but set at 50mph Tropical Storm Nana Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NANA... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the potential tropical cyclone has become Tropical Storm Nana. The maximum winds are estimated to be 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued to update the forecast within the hour. SUMMARY OF 1205 PM AST...1605 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 77.7W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Small core of this system + improving shear conditions until landfall could lead to a quick intensification. These smaller systems can give us some surprises! I like that NHC went above the guidance with the intensity forecast. After seeing what recon found (tight core, high FL wind) this seems like one with the potential to ramp up quickly. I think we’ll be looking at a strong C1 by landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 lol.. 6nm. This reminds me of Iris back in 2001. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 The fact they found 60kt FL winds is amazing. Can’t think of a season where the global shave faired worse than this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 I would have thought higher in teh wind forecast with the eye report in the VDM.... guess we shall see then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 44 minutes ago, Windspeed said: lol.. 6nm. This reminds me of Iris back in 2001. Iris is a favorite of mine for sure. It really put dank microcanes into the consciousness of a generation of early 2000s tropical weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Recon now reports that the eye is closed and only 6nm wide 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Recon now reports that the eye is closed and only 6nm wide I thought AF307 was finished with their mission? You sure that isn't an old VDM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 On 9/1/2020 at 1:16 PM, the ghost of leroy said: Iris is a favorite of mine for sure. It really put dank microcanes into the consciousness of a generation of early 2000s tropical weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: I thought AF307 was finished with their mission? You sure that isn't an old VDM? URNT12 KNHC 011719 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162020 A. 01/16:32:20Z B. 16.59 deg N 077.82 deg W C. 850 mb 1455 m D. 1004 mb E. 290 deg 15 kt F. CLOSED G. C6 H. 42 kt I. 119 deg 10 nm 16:24:00Z J. 076 deg 58 kt K. 343 deg 6 nm 16:30:30Z L. 48 kt M. 295 deg 34 nm 16:47:00Z N. 052 deg 54 kt O. 316 deg 7 nm 16:39:30Z P. 17 C / 1522 m Q. 20 C / 1540 m R. 14 C / NA S. 12345 / 8 T. 0.02 / 1.25 nm U. AF307 01FFA INVEST OB 16 MAX FL WIND 60 KT 078 / 7 NM 15:39:30Z ; 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Thanks! And my apologies for questioning the validity, I just saw that the mission was over and could only pull the old one upon refresh. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Took Laura an entire geological epoch to get a fully closed eyewall and this one just kinda poops one out nonchalantly. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 And yet again the models didn't even have anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Based on the last VDM and forward motion, the low-level vortex should be right under that symbol in this image. There is stronger convection going up just on the NW side. But it definitely needs to wrap to get more of a CDO look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Oh finally Mr. Euro decides to show... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Reminds me of TS gordon off the coast of the glades in 2018. It too had a tiny little eyewall structure and well defined core and it fell apart. My guess is recon sampled a similar feature and as such, my guess is that it's longevity/potency is dubious at best. It'd be interesting if it found a way to maintain it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 AF308 will be taking off momentarily and should reach Nana in by 1630z. Should have new data for the 5PM update. Will be interesting to see how that tiny vortex is holding up against moderate easterly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Big CB going up near the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 AF308 will be taking off momentarily and should reach Nana in by 1630z. Should have new data for the 5PM update. Will be interesting to see how that tiny vortex is holding up against moderate easterly shear.Issues? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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