CarlislePaWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Let's hope we don't repeat the vanishing rainstorm of last week, for everyone's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Let's hope we don't repeat the vanishing rainstorm of last week, for everyone's sake. Think it'll be hard for this monster to vanish, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 37 minutes ago, canderson said: Think it'll be hard for this monster to vanish, honestly. Yeah...have to agree. If this one goes poof....all hope IS lost. May be obvious +\- adjustments but I think many water tables will get freshened up by this. Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 CMC jumped on board the snow train for late week. I80 and north but best accums seem to run rt 6 corridor. Old GFS agrees. nooner GooFuS 2.0 not out yet but looks similar to above mentioned 12z's . Although way out for NAM's to carry much weight, they look similar in snowfall maps, so if we are looking for continuity, I'd say we have some. I think I'll take my late season winter gear for hunting this weekend. 19 sat morn is NOT what I call nice archery weather. Did it last year and hoped I'd not have to anytime soon. So much for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 WPC likes a second maxima in eastern PA as the low winds up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: WPC likes a second maxima in eastern PA as the low winds up: That looks like a pretty decent snowstorm for all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: WPC likes a second maxima in eastern PA as the low winds up: water tables approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I think the whole subforum is basically locked into the washout Thur into early Friday for at least an inch or so. The only question now with the rainfall is how much of PA sees the more excessive 2+ totals, which is likely going to hinge on how far the remnant low of Zeta presses north before getting arced eastward. This morning's WPC map really knocked that down from yesterday.. with only the southern tier below the turnpike seeing 2" or more now. They seem to be factoring more heavily the GFS/GEFS in that makeup. I personally expect a lot of 1.5-2" type amounts in the subforum, with perhaps the far NW near an inch. If Zeta gets high enough and tracks just south of the Mason-Dixon line, that would likely send it's swath of more excessive rainfall rates directly associated with the tropical system itself into a good portion of southern PA. Flash flood guidance is through the roof, and thus we'd need a widespread 4"+ rainfall in 6 or 12hrs to see any notable issues in that department. We'd be hard pressed to see that even if Zeta sent it's swath of heaviest precip right through the heart of C-PA. Either way, this will be a very beneficial rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I think the whole subforum is basically locked into the washout Thur into early Friday for at least an inch or so. The only question now with the rainfall is how much of PA sees the more excessive 2+ totals, which is likely going to hinge on how far the remnant low of Zeta presses north before getting arced eastward. This morning's WPC map really knocked that down from yesterday.. with only the southern tier below the turnpike seeing 2" or more now. They seem to be factoring more heavily the GFS/GEFS in that makeup. I personally expect a lot of 1.5-2" type amounts in the subforum, with perhaps the far NW near an inch. If Zeta gets high enough and tracks just south of the Mason-Dixon line, that would likely send it's swath of more excessive rainfall rates directly associated with the tropical system itself into a good portion of southern PA. Flash flood guidance is through the roof, and thus we'd need a widespread 4"+ rainfall in 6 or 12hrs to see any notable issues in that department. We'd be hard pressed to see that even if Zeta sent it's swath of heaviest precip right through the heart of C-PA. Either way, this will be a very beneficial rainfall. Thanks for the updates Mike. I'm thinking the white potential is still a Rt 6 and NE "event" and based on dynamics, it would be elevation driven with white rain in valleys and coating -2 or 3 for best spots Bradford-Susquehanna counties. I'm guessing I get a slushy 1-2 in Gaines. What's your thinking? Any further shift south, and I'd think maybe far NE poconos would be jackpot for any appreciable snows, while we get light snow at end further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 hours ago, pasnownut said: Thanks for the updates Mike. I'm thinking the white potential is still a Rt 6 and NE "event" and based on dynamics, it would be elevation driven with white rain in valleys and coating -2 or 3 for best spots Bradford-Susquehanna counties. I'm guessing I get a slushy 1-2 in Gaines. What's your thinking? Any further shift south, and I'd think maybe far NE poconos would be jackpot for any appreciable snows, while we get light snow at end further NW. The progressive pattern kind of limits the potential. If we end up with the further south track, it'll likely be because it ended up with a more progressive storm and you don't have as much time to get much of a changeover. Zeta runs out in front of the closed 500mb low, and the weakening 500mb low slides east just under us and doesn't really phase with the northern branch. This is a really big early season snowstorm if these things phased together with the cold available nearby, but we're too progressive. I think that far northern part of PA does change over at the end but probably the inch or less variety slushy accumulation.. pretty much your guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I’m alone but I love days like today. Dark clouds, mid to upper 50s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Moderate rain and 50 degrees. Just passed .50" for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 This is perfect rain. Not too heavy so no flooding issues and the ground can soak in as much as it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 40 minutes ago, canderson said: This is perfect rain. Not too heavy so no flooding issues and the ground can soak in as much as it can. I agree, nice raw fall rainy day. I'm looking for the dry slot coming in. I can't wait to use those sayings in the winter time version of today's weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, paweather said: I agree, nice raw fall rainy day. I'm looking for the dry slot coming in. I can't wait to use those sayings in the winter time version of today's weather. The sun angle on this rain is serious though - worst time for it!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, canderson said: The sun angle on this rain is serious though - worst time for it!!! LOVE IT! Let's get ready for our phrases it will happen soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Light to occasionally moderate rain continues, .88" in the bucket. Some heavy rain JUST sliding to my SE and looks to stay that way, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 dry slot on my doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, paweather said: dry slot on my doorstep. Yep, rain has stopped completely here. 1.02" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep, rain has stopped completely here. 1.02" at this point. Last batch coming through now here. And then done for a bit until the west precip comes through later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Some lighter rain currently, with some heavier stuff out near Pittsburgh likely to move back in soon. It's def been quite a rainy day here... and also somewhat breezy with a stiff wind out of the NNE. Need this to return in about a month and a half. Speaking of flakes... looking beyond today's system to the end of the weekend into Monday, we have a very strong frontal passage progged for later Sunday. This brings -8 to -10ºC 850mb air into all of PA by Monday morning. Brief window with this cold shot but it's looking to be a potent one that will present a 6-12hr period where we light up the western/central PA counties with snow showers and even squalls for the first time. The NW snowbelt could get some accumulations out of this as well as lighter amounts into the Laurels. Reasonable chance some scattered action gets into the Sus Valley in the form of wet flakes and/or grapuel mixed in Monday. The anomalies with this airmass at 850 are in the -10 to -12ºC range below climo for the first half of Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Some lighter rain currently, with some heavier stuff out near Pittsburgh likely to move back in soon. It's def been quite a rainy day here... and also somewhat breezy with a stiff wind out of the NNE. Need this to return in about a month and a half. Speaking of flakes... looking beyond today's system to the end of the weekend into Monday, we have a very strong frontal passage progged for later Sunday. This brings -8 to -10ºC 850mb air into all of PA by Monday morning. Brief window with this cold shot but it's looking to be a potent one that will present a 6-12hr period where we light up the western/central PA counties with snow showers and even squalls for the first time. The NW snowbelt could get some accumulations out of this as well as lighter amounts into the Laurels. Reasonable chance some scattered action gets into the Sus Valley in the form of wet flakes and/or grapuel mixed in Monday. The anomalies with this airmass at 850 are in the -10 to -12ºC range below climo for the first half of Monday. Thanks Mag for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Looks like 1" of rain at MDT today. My total is 1.12". A bit of an underperformer. Zeta ended up taking a beeline east this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There was also this slightly unprecedented event on this date the very next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Jim Cantore loved this storm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Riding with the wife to work this morning, and we have some mangled snowflakes mixed in with the rain. Temp down to 36 degrees... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 And so it begins up here in Clarks Summit 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Greensnow said: And so it begins up here in Clarks Summit Thanks for sharing saw pictures posted by NWS State College as well. It is a good start for you folks up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Nice little snow event in SNE. One of my plant locations in CT already at 4”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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