CAPE Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: We’re using up all our good looks and patterns before winter. If we end up with a moderate, CP based Nina, we likely wont be seeing many of these looks during winter. Might as well enjoy it now. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 IAD got down to 38F. I saw frost on the roofs of some houses earlier. There's still about 80 minutes of astronomical summer left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: If we end up with a moderate, CP based Nina, we likely wont be seeing many of these looks during winter. Might as well enjoy it now. SER all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: SER all the way Decent chance it becomes a semi-permanent fixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 50 minutes ago, CAPE said: If we end up with a moderate, CP based Nina, we likely wont be seeing many of these looks during winter. Might as well enjoy it now. 16 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: SER all the way Let's just go all the way for a super La Nina. It would be interesting to see what it would do during winter and next spring. Severe weather train rolling on for months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Hoping for good weather next Tuesday evening. We're driving to Wallops for the Anteres launch at 10:30 pm. Everyone in this sub forum should be able to see it, the Anteres is the bigger(est) rocket that can be launched from WAL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 32F again this morning with pretty good frost. 3 straight nights of freezing temps in mid September. Truly amazing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 71/38... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 32F again this morning with pretty good frost. 3 straight nights of freezing temps in mid September. Truly amazing. Even more remarkable is that KOKV hasn’t had a temperature above 70 in 8 days in the middle of September. Love to see the last time that happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Looks warm for awhile. Probably 5+ degrees above average in general over the next 5-6 days, before we get what looks like an impressive trough digging down from Canada mid next week with a big PNA ridge out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 After the cold shot mentioned above, maybe a Gulf Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December? Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Not saying there is a correlation, someone needs to confirm, but the Northern Atlantic is crazy and wondering about wave breaking as the NAO is set to tank on some modeling and the AO is a going down too . Teddy producing some crazy winds and waves as well. Also, of interest , is the changing SST anomaly near the East Coast from the constant stream of swells and upwelling the past several weeks produced by the recent offshore hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December? Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February. Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 The Euro has not been that great recently, and I hate the weeklies ( flip flops and all ), but there is a general consensus for a possible average to below average October in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan. Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan from moisture on the west side of a decent tropical remnant hit in the DMV region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different! November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, George BM said: November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some. Multiple snow events in Deep Creek last November....actually might have had more November snow than December snow there but I'm bad at remembering every detail of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 We’ve had 2 November’s in a row with good, cold patterns that have flipped to puke in early or mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 GEFS is officially upgraded to the FV3 dynamical core with today’s 12z suite. Early reviews seem quite positive. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Will be interesting to track this, as well as the reliability of the model forecast. Many previous seasons have had poor forecasts focused on certain indices, ( NAO, AO, EPO, etc. ) including given biases. That is a very significant drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Put the A/C back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 12 hours ago, nj2va said: Put the A/C back on. Same. At least in the afternoon, our house warms up real quick from 3pm or so as the sun just beats into the backside of the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Too warm. Bring back Fall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Yikes. Thank the gods we have 4 terminal dopplers nearby. Hopefully Infrastructure Week™ will fix this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yikes. Thank the gods we have 4 terminal dopplers nearby. Hopefully Infrastructure Week™ will fix this. @yoda Hmm... LWX radar down indefinitely... a strong trough moving in early/mid next week... Verifying Moderate risk day, here we come! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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