Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Yikes. Thank the gods we have 4 terminal dopplers nearby. Hopefully Infrastructure Week™ will fix this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yikes. Thank the gods we have 4 terminal dopplers nearby. Hopefully Infrastructure Week™ will fix this. @yoda Hmm... LWX radar down indefinitely... a strong trough moving in early/mid next week... Verifying Moderate risk day, here we come! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip. Seems in this new day and age, we tend not to stay dry for too long. That solution also looks to have severe implications for the South. A huge dive in the NAO and the AO coming up shortly, with a pretty good consensus that it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip. Wondering about the Euro verification scores last few days. Heard East of the Mississippi it is not doing that hot recently during the past 30 to 45 days. Maybe the GFS goes for the win. I re seeded a little time ago. I don't need flash flooding again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro shows less then 2 tenths here through Tuesday. Hopefully the beast trough mid week gives some much needed rain up here . H5 looks darn impressive mid long range Euro. What's your September total? I'm at 0.9" for the month at Deep Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Euro took most of that away now Relying on the Wednesday Through Friday time frame You just may have to wait for your November paste bomb to dent that dry spell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 17 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip. WPC goes with higher QPF in latest update. ..Weather/Hazard Highlights... Ample energy seems set to dig into the potent upper trough/low position will push cold fronts across the central and eastern U.S. through the period and provide focus for rain. Amplification trends have slowed the eastward translation of a main lead front and reinforcement as contingent on uncertain stream separation. A significant WPC frontal continuity adjustment was applied to address timing. Modest to locally heavy rainfall totals may focus from the Appalachians eastward for the first part of the workweek, albeit with trough axis differences affecting wave development and moisture inflow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere, by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben, recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Went to the beach recently and observed huge amounts of sand have been lost due to recent huge waves battering the surf zone from offshore hurricanes and the effect of the moon phase. Also, opposite of many past Septembers, the surf zone temps have really dropped off quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, frd said: Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere, by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben, recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though. Pac jet will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure. LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference. What I found interesting is that this failure occurred right after an upgrade or other maintenance. Assuming it's just a coincidence. Lake Charles should DEFINITELY get preference. Is there some sort of contingency that allows them to work on multiple 88Ds at once? Rare case but what if a major storm took out 2 or 3 radars in short order. I guess it's a personnel numbers type thing - can't imagine there's a ton of folks able to do work on radars. ETA: This failure probably guarantees the event of the season on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 NAM and Hrrr NAM the area just west of 95 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 This is going to be the second system in a row where the rain we get is from remnant tropical. The third event in a row with a tropical connection (There was tropical moisture from 94L on Sept 10th). There have been four storm systems (including this one just starting to affect us now) to affect us this month. Of those four systems only the first system (the one that gave some of us severe weather on September 3rd) did not have tropical connections. ... Man... I REALLY need to work on my grammar... Hopefully you all understood what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Raining when I left Arlington but lots of stars here. Gorgeous sunset tonight on 68...wish I pulled over for a photo. Currently 55. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 0.60" here so far. Getting heavy downpours now. Wasn't really expecting this. even though most of the mesos yesterday did show a half inch+ here, the latest NAM runs backed off and had the better rains to my west. Official forecast was a tenth to a quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 0.58” total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 The remnants of Beta behaving more like an Alpha here. 0.72" with another heavy shower rolling through. Hopefully its about done. It would be nice to salvage some of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 M0.25" Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 1.09", was not expecting that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, SnowtoRain said: 1.09", was not expecting that much Neither was Mount Holly lol. Up to 0.83" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 0.00" Mist falling atm Yours is coming As wet as it looks this week, and with the last section of grass germinated and coming up, I think my sprinkler will be retired for the year. If your yard somehow gets missed again, I will overnight it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Yet another super wet month here, going back to at least July. 8.68" to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: Yet another super wet month here, going back to at least July. 8.68" to this point. Is that total since July or just this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Recording a T for last night. 16 days since the last measurable rain here above a T. Looks like that will probably end next week but a heck of a dry stretch. Fall color has started here on the margins....greens are dulled and the deer are freaking everywhere. The fall smallmouth bite is on as well. Here are a few pics from the other eve while fishing the rapids...up river from Harpers Ferry. 7 smallmouth and 1 walleye! Love this time of year.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Is that total since July or just this month? That's September lol. Each of the last 3, if not 4 months have been significantly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 My area got nailed earlier in the month from multiple training t-storms with a frontal passage. Flash flooding with 4"+. Most places on the central/upper shore are probably 4 - 5" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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