snowfan Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 NAM twins dry this weekend. GFS mostly dry thru the entire run. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 33 minutes ago, snowfan said: NAM twins dry this weekend. GFS mostly dry thru the entire run. Hope it holds. That hurricane at the end of the run is only 1500 miles east of where it had it yesterday. LR modeling is as accurate as the farmer's almanac. I'm vowing not to look beyond 5 days this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 34 minutes ago, snowfan said: NAM twins dry this weekend. GFS mostly dry thru the entire run. Hope it holds. The morning Mount Holly AFD commented there was better agreement between the Euro and the GFS overnight, and that the front washes away as it nears us Sunday, and the threat of excessive rainfall on Sunday has diminished. Sunday may indeed be dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Dry is good. No significant rain for the next 5 days would be wonderful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dry is good. No significant rain for the next 5 days would be wonderful. The soup kitchen is gone at last but will it return? You don't need need rain for that.... this region is nutty but nothing like Colorado I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 when is the front supposed to move through? or better question, when does the humidity break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, mappy said: when is the front supposed to move through? or better question, when does the humidity break? As the day progresses according to the AFD from Mount Holly . Your area first then me later . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: The soup kitchen is gone at last but will it return? You don't need need rain for that.... this region is nutty but nothing like Colorado I suppose. We are much more humid than colorado! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, mappy said: when is the front supposed to move through? or better question, when does the humidity break? A little more detail From MH AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The band of showers associated with the frontal wave, which has lingered over central Delmarva and far southern NJ the last few hours, should push offshore shortly. The cold front which has only made slow southward progress (as these weaker fronts often do) overnight will accelerate southward this morning away from the area. High Pressure building in behind the front over the Great Lakes will foster a dry N-NE flow over the area with dewpoints steadily dropping N-S through the day. Can`t rule out a few showers over the far south this morning (closer to the convergence zone and the better moisture) but guidance has trended more aggressive in drying us out, so confined mentionable PoPs to southern NJ and southern Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, frd said: As the day progresses according to the AFD from Mount Holly . Your area first then me later . 6 minutes ago, frd said: A little more detail From MH AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The band of showers associated with the frontal wave, which has lingered over central Delmarva and far southern NJ the last few hours, should push offshore shortly. The cold front which has only made slow southward progress (as these weaker fronts often do) overnight will accelerate southward this morning away from the area. High Pressure building in behind the front over the Great Lakes will foster a dry N-NE flow over the area with dewpoints steadily dropping N-S through the day. Can`t rule out a few showers over the far south this morning (closer to the convergence zone and the better moisture) but guidance has trended more aggressive in drying us out, so confined mentionable PoPs to southern NJ and southern Delmarva. Great, thank you! There is a breeze up here this morning, which is a god send for temps in the house. COME ON LOWER DEWS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Nice work by HM and cool animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 I have mentioned this before, along with various posts by bluewave. Anthony has an entire series of posts on this. And without a doubt this trend continues. The focus, well the enhanced area of higher heights near the East Coast between May and October during the most recent 10 year period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: I have mentioned this before, along with various posts by bluewave. Anthony has an entire series of posts on this. And without a doubt this trend continues. The focus, well the enhanced area of higher heights near the East Coast between May and October during the most recent 10 year period. Very interesting. What would this mean? Not sure I understand implications of increasing heights or even what heights are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Very interesting. What would this mean? Not sure I understand implications of increasing heights or even what heights are. I agree. Any translators in the house? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Subtropics said: We are much more humid than colorado! having these PWATS at 40N is kind of ridiculous. It's the only place in the world with such conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 I've counted like 2 or 3 80 degree days on the LR GEFS. It's all upper 60s to upper 70s with crisp cool nights to accelerate fall foliage. Here we go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Subtropics said: Very interesting. What would this mean? Not sure I understand implications of increasing heights or even what heights are. The height at which you will find 500 mb of pressure in the atmosphere.Typically we talk in terms of height anomalies. The higher up the 500 mb level is, the warmer the column of air below that point. Its a good indication of surface temps in most cases, although inversions and advection can mess with that correlation. In the summer months it translates to big heat when we have +height anomalies over the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Speaking of heights, and thoughts of crisp cool nights.. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Already noticing color changing here (spotty/patchy) which should accelerate over the next week with lows forecasted to get into the mid 40s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, JakkelWx said: I've counted like 2 or 3 80 degree days on the LR GEFS. It's all upper 60s to upper 70s with crisp cool nights to accelerate fall foliage. Here we go Also, couldn't ask for better weather over the weekend with a slight hint of mugginess on Sunday. Other than that a 10/10 week with the best weather on Tuesday with highs around 70F. Humidity in the 40s. Nights in the mid 50s to low 60s basically every night. Summer is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Already noticing color changing here (spotty/patchy) which should accelerate over the next week with lows forecasted to get into the mid 40s. Keep us posted. I'm planning on doing a few days in Canaan and up near ohiopyle. Both spots are usually a bit ahead of deep creek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 6 hours ago, CAPE said: Speaking of heights, and thoughts of crisp cool nights.. ALL IN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 As much as I enjoy seeing those long range outlooks with blue in the East I can’t help but think Indian summer to follow. I fear early season cool temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 7 hours ago, CAPE said: Speaking of heights, and thoughts of crisp cool nights.. The question is can we get this in January please?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Weird. We got drier air coming off the water it seems like. Probably due to the placement of the HP to our northeast. Wonderful feeling temperatures out, maybe even a little cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 5 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Weird. We got drier air coming off the water it seems like. Probably due to the placement of the HP to our northeast. Wonderful feeling temperatures out, maybe even a little cold. 73 here. High for the day. Feels great with that breeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Yyyyyyeeeessssssss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Yyyyyyeeeessssssss Couples kissing around a bonfire at the local drive-in movie theater while some dude who forgot to bring a sweater freezes his butt off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Hit a high of 64 at 1130 today. Settled to 60 most of the afternoon. Looking forward to some 30s early next week for lows. Outside chance at a freeze too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Gorgeous evening east of 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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