Fall/Winter 20-21 General Observations

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Moisture being lifted over KY and N. central TN:

and it looks like a little front just crept through Nashville. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Carvers Gap

interesting to see the difference just over in Carter's Valley:

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Carvers Gap

interesting to see the difference just over in Carter's Valley:

 

Inside joke for the rest of the TRI Kingsport crew.  If you know what we are talking about, discuss let's not...we all need our relatives still working.  LOL...downsloping is just one of the problems we have to overcome.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Initials are E.B. That’s all I will say. 

[Carvers Gap]

15 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Initials are E.B. That’s all I will say. 

That's pretty hilarious. I see that we have a few who speak our local wx microclimate dialect.  

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Decided try a NW Plateau obs loop today to see if I could see any upslope. The NAMs looked pretty generous:

But there wasn't much besides some pretty winter skies.

 

There was some snow on the Pogue Creek Canyon area, but the flakes were sooooo small, it was almost as though they were just frozen drizzle, coated with a dusting of rime:

 

 

If you squint you can almost see it snowing:

 

Overlook at the Big South Fork:

 

Upper Obed:

 

[John1122]

A few flurries floating around here. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I tried to decipher this, but I can't figure out your code 

It is a taboo subject. It's like seeing a storm shift NW last 24 hours when people expect it to dump on Asheville. If you talk about it, you jinx it. I don't wish that industrial sized curse upon Kingsport.

[Carvers Gap]

Spitting some salt and pepper size flakes here.  Had some flurries and very light snow showers for about an hour or so.  You can see the banding of those on the RadarScope image below.

 

[John1122]

Had a decent snow shower before dark that lasted about 15 minutes. 

[Jed33]

It was also that way here in town earlier this evening and around 2 or so there was a brief sleet/graupel shower

[PowellVolz]

.

[Daniel Boone]

Graupel here just b4 dark that dusted housetops, cars etc..

   Went to Big Stone Gap 2day and passed vehicles coming from Norton/Wise area that looked to of had about an inch on them.

[PowellVolz]

.

[Carvers Gap]

Temp is 34 in Kingsport with a slight breeze.   WC is probably below 32.  Pretty raw day.

[PowellVolz]

Temp is 34 in Kingsport with a slight breeze.   WC is probably below 32.  Pretty raw day.

37ish north of Knoxville a little but the sun is still very warm without a breeze.


.

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

37ish north of Knoxville a little but the sun is still very warm without a breeze.


.

I think we are 37 as well.  With that light breeze, still chilly.  I have to go running later...just trying to wait for it to warm-up a hair.  

[John1122]

For some reason I expected it to be warmer today. It's a steady 35 and should probably start falling in the next hour, as the sun will set for me in about 10 minutes.

[PowellVolz]

For some reason I expected it to be warmer today. It's a steady 35 and should probably start falling in the next hour, as the sun will set for me in about 10 minutes.

That’s funny because I was thinking the same thing. Then I looked and the high was upper 30’s in the valley.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Another Frozen Head trip. Definitely chilly above 3000'. Some cold air advection clouds too.

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sun setting here and temp finally starting to drop, just as clouds are rolling in, (as Dan said in the other thread). 

Some mid 40s on Wunderground's map near Somerset, KY

[BlunderStorm]

Alright, here we go. Snow? IMBY? Will see, Currently 43 and a long way to drop.

[John1122]

42 degrees and the rain is actually starting to fall steadily.  If I change over I expect it to be after 5am. 

[BlunderStorm]

Down to 41. Since the arrival of the rain the temperatures have proceeded to drop steadily at a degree an hour. At this rate however the sun will stagnate the drop and the system will have already mostly concluded. Still, it is movement in the right direction and with any luck the drop in temperature will accelerate. On it's own evaporative cooling may give me another degree. Wetbulb is just under 40 with 94% humidity. All the more puzzling is the wind direction from the southwest from deeper in the valley not keeping the temperature at the very least stable. Furthermore if clouds insulate then why were temperatures stable instead of dropping in the first few hours of the night while the sky was still partially uncovered? Me no understand heat dissipation.

[BlunderStorm]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1249 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Not a whole lot of change to the forecast this evening. Biggest
change was to slightly delay onset of precip across the central
east TN Valley and northeast TN by a few hours. Looking at the
latest data, still a very difficult forecast in terms of snow
potential across the northern Cumberland Plateau and southwest VA.
I think the biggest bust potential is across Wise County and
Russel County VA, our most northern counties in our CWA. By bust
I mean our current snow totals could be too low. However, I just
don`t feel confident enough to raise the current totals that are
in place. To be honest, we probably won`t have a good grasp on
snow totals until we actually see when the changeover occurs. With
this event changeover-time is everything. A changeover from rain
to snow that occurs just an hour or two earlier could raise snow
totals by a few inches and vice versa if changeover is later than
expected. The current SPS and snow totals mentioned within still
look reasonable so will let it ride for now. Will be closely
watching how this event unfolds through the night.

SR

[John1122]

37 degrees and just blitzing rain.  Looks like there's been some embedded snow in areas out to the west but not super wide spread. There's a small area near Montacello Kentucky where some blue is showing up. Byrdstown just Southwest of Montacello in Tn is down to 34 but ptype says heavy rain there still currently. 

[bearman]

 Noticed that radar just turned blue on the plateau northern border counties just above you.  Hope you can change over.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Finally figured out how to get the height of the snow line on my radar app. Looks like over the eastern TN valley it is around 2k feet and dropping steadily

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

With that last gasp batch of precip over middle TN though it looks like the snow level is only about 500 feet. 
 

looks like @Kentucky was right in the middle of the early changeover that bearman mentioned. Hopefully he got some accumulations out of it. 

[Kentucky]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

With that last gasp batch of precip over middle TN though it looks like the snow level is only about 500 feet. 
 

looks like @Kentucky was right in the middle of the early changeover that bearman mentioned. Hopefully he got some accumulations out of it. 

Indeed a little slushy accumulation this morning, from that band (according to the IP cameras). 35 with mostly cold rain now at 1200 ft.  JKL was saying this was mainly going to be a 1500 + event and it looks like they nailed that.