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Fall/Winter 20-21 General Observations


John1122
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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Carvers Gap

interesting to see the difference just over in Carter's Valley:

nG3aQJX.png

 

Inside joke for the rest of the TRI Kingsport crew.  If you know what we are talking about, discuss let's not...we all need our relatives still working.  LOL...downsloping is just one of the problems we have to overcome.

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Decided try a NW Plateau obs loop today to see if I could see any upslope. The NAMs looked pretty generous:

giphy.gif

But there wasn't much besides some pretty winter skies.

 

There was some snow on the Pogue Creek Canyon area, but the flakes were sooooo small, it was almost as though they were just frozen drizzle, coated with a dusting of rime:

bp733ln.png 

 

If you squint you can almost see it snowing:

giphy.gif

 

Overlook at the Big South Fork:

pn81rxe.png

 

Upper Obed:

ltVXQ01.png

 

7Gg8BPw.png

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For some reason I expected it to be warmer today. It's a steady 35 and should probably start falling in the next hour, as the sun will set for me in about 10 minutes.

That’s funny because I was thinking the same thing. Then I looked and the high was upper 30’s in the valley.


.
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Down to 41. Since the arrival of the rain the temperatures have proceeded to drop steadily at a degree an hour. At this rate however the sun will stagnate the drop and the system will have already mostly concluded. Still, it is movement in the right direction and with any luck the drop in temperature will accelerate. On it's own evaporative cooling may give me another degree. Wetbulb is just under 40 with 94% humidity. All the more puzzling is the wind direction from the southwest from deeper in the valley not keeping the temperature at the very least stable. Furthermore if clouds insulate then why were temperatures stable instead of dropping in the first few hours of the night while the sky was still partially uncovered? :wacko2: Me no understand heat dissipation.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1249 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Not a whole lot of change to the forecast this evening. Biggest
change was to slightly delay onset of precip across the central
east TN Valley and northeast TN by a few hours. Looking at the
latest data, still a very difficult forecast in terms of snow
potential across the northern Cumberland Plateau and southwest VA.
I think the biggest bust potential is across Wise County and
Russel County VA, our most northern counties in our CWA. By bust
I mean our current snow totals could be too low. However, I just
don`t feel confident enough to raise the current totals that are
in place. To be honest, we probably won`t have a good grasp on
snow totals until we actually see when the changeover occurs. With
this event changeover-time is everything. A changeover from rain
to snow that occurs just an hour or two earlier could raise snow
totals by a few inches and vice versa if changeover is later than
expected. The current SPS and snow totals mentioned within still
look reasonable so will let it ride for now. Will be closely
watching how this event unfolds through the night.

SR
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37 degrees and just blitzing rain.  Looks like there's been some embedded snow in areas out to the west but not super wide spread. There's a small area near Montacello Kentucky where some blue is showing up. Byrdstown just Southwest of Montacello in Tn is down to 34 but ptype says heavy rain there still currently. 

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

With that last gasp batch of precip over middle TN though it looks like the snow level is only about 500 feet. 
 

looks like @Kentucky was right in the middle of the early changeover that bearman mentioned. Hopefully he got some accumulations out of it. 

Indeed a little slushy accumulation this morning, from that band (according to the IP cameras). 35 with mostly cold rain now at 1200 ft.  JKL was saying this was mainly going to be a 1500 + event and it looks like they nailed that. 

 

IMG_20201214_072232076.jpg

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