Fall Banter and General Discussion

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I don't think anyone said that.

I just don't choose to live my life locked up and scared over something that's 99.9% survivable. 

you guys keep making that number bigger and bigger. lol

[WhitinsvilleWX]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you guys keep making that number bigger and bigger. lol

ok, 99.5, 99.2, 99.0?  Pick what you want.

 

 

[Quixotic1]

10 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

ok, 99.5, 99.2, 99.0?  Pick what you want.

 

 

Lower if hospitals are clogged.  

[PhineasC]

99.7% is what I have seen around as an “official” number. 

[Lava Rock]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ve seen the same handful of people since March, wear a mask whenever required to do so, and haven’t been anywhere you’d really consider a high risk. I’ve been out to eat once and haven’t been to any theaters gyms or anything like that.

It is what it is, trying to do my best... we will be seeing some family for thanksgiving, in the safest way we can do it. Can’t completely shut down living your life 

Wife wants to go to a friend's house for dinner. They are older (70s) and have a 30yr son at home. I told her unless we get tested, I really don't want to go. Not because I think they may give it to us, but we to them. I just don't think it's worth it to sit and have dinner with people in a tight house. My mom and sister told us not to come, not that we usually celebrate together anyways, but my wife gets pissy when I tell her we probably should stay home. Both her parents have passed on now and we'd usually be in LAX for the holidays, but not anymore. I think she just feels this need to have to be with people during the holidays.

Wonder how many other spousal relationships are having a bit of tough time with decisions like this.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Wife wants to go to a friend's house for dinner. They are older (70s) and have a 30yr son at home. I told her unless we get tested, I really don't want to go. Not because I think they may give it to us, but we to them. I just don't think it's worth it to sit and have dinner with people in a tight house. My mom and sister told us not to come, not that we usually celebrate together anyways, but my wife gets pissy when I tell her we probably should stay home. Both her parents have passed on now and we'd usually be in LAX for the holidays, but not anymore. I think she just feels this need to have to be with people during the holidays.

Wonder how many other spousal relationships are having a bit of tough time with decisions like this.

I’m sure nearly all families are stressed. This situation is especially hard on big time extroverts. The kind of people who are always at parties and going out to eat with friends 3 nights a week. You suddenly cut all that off and they don’t know what to do with themselves. 

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Wife wants to go to a friend's house for dinner. They are older (70s) and have a 30yr son at home. I told her unless we get tested, I really don't want to go. Not because I think they may give it to us, but we to them. I just don't think it's worth it to sit and have dinner with people in a tight house. My mom and sister told us not to come, not that we usually celebrate together anyways, but my wife gets pissy when I tell her we probably should stay home. Both her parents have passed on now and we'd usually be in LAX for the holidays, but not anymore. I think she just feels this need to have to be with people during the holidays.

Wonder how many other spousal relationships are having a bit of tough time with decisions like this.

Tell her you have each other and thats enough. Lol. 

[Lava Rock]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Tell her you have each other and thats enough. Lol. 

And she'd be cool with that as we put that out there as an option, but she's 100% certain in her mind that she doesn't and won't have covid so no need to get tested. Of course she's back at work this week flying around the country then heading to LAX to see her brother and sister next week. All the more reason to at least get tested. I have to be careful how I say things. Marriages sure can be challenging.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

The speculation I've seen is the sale date of the CEO's shares was predetermined some time ago.  The CEO just timed his comments to influence the share price just before the shares were scheduled for sale. 

It stinks, but probably not breaking any laws.

Yea it was on their 10b5 plan or whatever they call if. A pre-determined date for the sale but yea, to your point, the timing of the announcement is fishy. I’ve read that type of plan can be a legal loophole around insider trading. 

[monadnocks]

One of the things that I don't see being discussed is the multiplier effect that's happening with COVID-19 in terms of economic impact v. personal impact. 

As an example, I live in the Monadnock region of NH and there's a nonprofit that was hit pretty hard by the economic impact - Crotched Mountain Rehab. The foundation that manages it had dealt with a variety of subpar financial events before COVID-19 hit so this was just another thing in the pipeline. It's hard to ensure personal safety for residents and staff when, due to a variety of disabilities, clients may not be able to comply with COVID-19 requirements. The foundation decided this summer to close the school because of the financial drain. That led to layoffs, area businesses saw less income (the store, storage place, etc.) and so on.  Another organization, Gersh Academy, is in the process of buying the Greenfield campus and is currently managing it. They're accepting applications but it will probably be quite some time before it's fully operational.

I believe that Crotched went above and beyond what the state was requiring from them in an effort to keep everyone safe. It wasn't a matter of whether or not a sick person became sick with something else or if an old person died. It was an exogenous event that wasn't scoped within their plans. The economic impact was independent of government regulations in this case. And the area is lucky that the New York based founder is so happy with buying the school that he's moving his family to New Hampshire so I expect that the school will thrive with that level of oversight.

The crux of the problem lays with the analysis that we are all called to make - how to spread the risk, pay for the costs (immediate, implied, societal and long term debt with its resulting economic impacts) and allocate resources. It's not often that everyone is drawn into an ongoing conversation to assess their actions with these types of time frames and probably most people don't think about these types of forces / actions with that type of scoping. (For those of you who agree with MMT and federal debt, I disagree.) There are similar problems that we all address, indirectly or directly, but with longer timespans. SARS-CoV-2 created an opportunity for us to look at our actions and see the ripple effects in close to real time.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

pay everyone to stay home. the end

Go out , get sick potentially and then get better. End game 

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Go out , get sick potentially and then get better. End game 

They think there is a scenario where we all lay low for another 6-12 months and then there is a miracle shot we all get that prevents COVID. Basically a deus ex machina scenario. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

They think this is nothing. No one dies. No one has long term health effects 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting..’automated’. Paging @Hoth or @STILL N OF PIKE to clarify. Perfectly legal, I get it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/11/pfizer-chief-sold-56m-dollars-of-shares-on-day-covid-vaccine-was-announced

I'm not too familiar with the nuances of 10b5s, but usually they have a predetermined frequency and a set number of shares. I've never heard of one that triggers based on matching a certain stock price. The CEO dumping 60% of his holdings in one fell swoop will always raise an eyebrow.

[CoastalWx]

Is House going to Disney World? Heard the waits are terrible there. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Is House going to Disney World? Heard the waits are terrible there. 

 Not really. Lines look long due to spacing but they are down from typical

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 Not really. Lines look long due to spacing but they are down from typical

Well that’s good. Are they limited in capacity in any way?

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

They think this is nothing. No one dies. No one has long term health effects 

People definitely die. Especially those 80+ with major underlying diseases. Jury is out on long term effects, since the virus hasn’t been around that long. 

[PhineasC]

Shady corporate CEO doing shady corporate CEO stuff. Just another day in the dystopia. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that’s good. Are they limited in capacity in any way?

Oh yes.  I think they are running at 25% park capacity.  State allows 100% but they are being conservative.  So far no spread detected from the parks and resorts.  
A bunch of stuff is closed though. Several hotels, restaurants.  No parades or nighttime shows.  Very little entertainment 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

People definitely die. Especially those 80+ with major underlying diseases. Jury is out on long term effects, since the virus hasn’t been around that long. 

Was talking to my primary care's nurse during my last checkup and she mentioned how the long term effects were going to be interesting. Mentioned women were losing their hair specifically.

[OSUmetstud]

35% of the deaths are those under 65 in the US. Fairly small risk individually but a large societal effect in the aggregate. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is House going to Disney World? Heard the waits are terrible there. 

Lol

yes. Week from today

waits aren’t bad.  Thanksgiving is slow anyway. There’s an app that gives you wait time and nothing’s over 30 minutes generally. 
But the hotels at t giving any discounts let me tell you. Beach club villas are as outrageous ever. 

[Brewbeer]

Too many unknown unknowns.

[Dan76]

Restaurants/Bars closing 10:00 here starting Fri NYS

[WhitinsvilleWX]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Was talking to my primary care's nurse during my last checkup and she mentioned how the long term effects were going to be interesting. Mentioned women were losing their hair specifically.

My wife had it back in December, we think. Couple months later the hair loss was outrageous. Not so you could tell it, but I had to clean the shower drain more than once.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pretty simplistic, but then you have to address those owners/workers lost wages/jobs and closed businesses.  

And they haven’t and this is Washington’s biggest fail compared to what other developed countries are doing 

several states pay a maximum of 299 or less a week for a worker who’s industry has been decimated by Covid And PPP loans are needed months ago by industries crushed .
 

Also the unemployment rate is a joke many folks are falling off the “go to” unemployment number that governments love to use (U 3) because folks who have been out of a job for more than 6 months are (poof) no longer Counted as being in work force. When you realize 20 million lost their jobs in March and April that 6 months is up and poof unemployment rate looks much rosier .

Congress is a embarrassment And both sides have serious issues one doesn’t see much of a problem , only a “V” Recovery and the other over played their hand betting on a blue wave  instead of making McConnell vote against a bill that dems and Trump could have agreed at 1.9 T for . Now unless Georgia sees both run offs go Blue there is a slim chance Moscow Mitch passes much above 1 T and who knows if they will even agree to all the parts of the bill (unlikely ) minus a economic recession coming back . So folks will suffer and out side of what happened in Elderly care facilities that is the biggest disgrace of Covid .

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

35% of the deaths are those under 65 in the US. Fairly small risk individually but a large societal effect in the aggregate. 

Where did you get that number? I am guessing that most of those deaths are clustered 60 and up. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Where did you get that number? I am guessing that most of those deaths are clustered 60 and up. 

I made a math error. Its 21% from this data here.  

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man I see they got to you. Hate to see it 

I apologize for my reaction earlier. I vehemently disagree with everything you said, including and the way you said it, but it's still no excuse to be uncivil.