Fall Banter and General Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

My son’s University in RI has been very successful so far in keeping the virus out.  Since late August only 0.01% (Yup) positive tests.  Testing all on campus twice a week. Contact tracing positives.  
They had one small cluster but quickly isolated that. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't know what impact he could ever have honestly.  I mean people are set in their ways, testing is high. Hard to see what changes.

At this point not sure what any one person could do other than sending messages to the general population and making sure resources are being sent where and when needed.     We know a lot more now than in the spring. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

My son’s University in RI has been very successful so far in keeping the virus out.  Since late August only 0.01% (Yup) positive tests.  Testing all on campus twice a week. Contact tracing positives.  
They had one small cluster but quickly isolated that. 

Excellent.  Didn't realize he was at my Alma Mater. Nice

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

At this point not sure what any one person could do other than sending messages to the general population and making sure resources are being sent where and when needed.     We know a lot more now than in the spring. 

Wildfire cases across the world. But as Radarman said we are attacking it with all we have and are making progress. I don't trust the media on either side so I question everything and do my own diligence.  Too much politics and not enough independent reporting.  The media is absolutely insane right now. Lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, radarman said:

The chart is probably a lot more telling about socialization habits than covid.  Chicago is masked up and covid is exploding, but nobody knows their neighbors so it's cool.

 

Meanwhile deaths are nowhere close, not in the same stratosphere as the spring.  So either a) the virus has weakened b) the treatments have improved c) vitamin d helps a lot d) the weakest are already dead e) way, way more people had it in the spring than they knew about f) all of the above

Regardless, deaths don't lie.  It ain't what it used to be, a fact we should celebrate not deny.

Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks 

You can’t really say anything about deaths not matching cases for a couple more weeks . Hospitalizations rise approximately 10 days after positive cases and Deaths 3 week lag after cases.

I am certainly not a alarmist with this stuff . Watch Italy deaths on worldometers site in about 10-days to 2 weeks . They should double easily on a daily rate and probably quadruple in 4 weeks .

The numbers will rise after the election the media will cover it , and yes Biden won’t be a punching bag but the numbers are still going up and will .

Based on the mini USA summer Spoke and the lag in deaths , 80-85k cases a day will translate to 1300 -1400 deaths a day and my guess is we will be up near 2k by Xmas . The data correlates pretty clearly and one could argue that mortality rates could be boosted in winter due to more concurrent infection of Covid positive folks ( I.E have flu also )

Also possibly bc there is some data that shows some correlation  as the Vitamin D deficiency that spikes in winter and has been postulated to allow the cytokine storm to be more apt to take hold. That last sentence is not scientifically proven and Prob. never will be , basically bc there will never be enough funding dedicated to Provide enough real Data (scientifically ) simply bc the dollars allotted to most research goes to new medicine .

[radarman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks 

You can’t really say anything about deaths not matching cases for a couple more weeks .

look at that chart again... Cases have been setting daily records for 2 Mos.  

Yes, I know asymptomatic testing is a factor.  But the case spike is not new.

[PowderBeard]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My son’s University in RI has been very successful so far in keeping the virus out.  Since late August only 0.01% (Yup) positive tests.  Testing all on campus twice a week. Contact tracing positives.  
They had one small cluster but quickly isolated that. 

I'm assuming this is a school other than URI?  I went there and am friends on FB with a few profs and their numbers are much higher. The first few weeks of October the off campus student positivity rate was close to 4% and Greek housing students were testing positive at over 11% (which required a 14 day shelter in place for all students in "Greek" housing). That said, their on campus student positivity rate was fluctuating between 0.40-0.70% which is great. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks 

You can’t really say anything about deaths not matching cases for a couple more weeks . Hospitalizations rise approximately 10 days after positive cases and Deaths 3 week lag after cases.

I am certainly not a alarmist with this stuff . Watch Italy deaths on worldometers site in about 10-days to 2 weeks . They should double easily on a daily rate and probably quadruple in 4 weeks .

The numbers will rise after the election the media will cover it , and yes Biden won’t be a punching bag but the numbers are still going up and will .

Based on the mini USA summer Spoke and the lag in deaths , 80-85k cases a day will translate to 1300 -1400 deaths a day and my guess is we will be up near 2k by Xmas . The data correlates pretty clearly and one could argue that mortality rates could be boosted in winter due to more concurrent infection of Covid positive folks ( I.E have flu also )

Also possibly bc there is some data that shows some correlation  as the Vitamin D deficiency that spikes in winter and has been postulated to allow the cytokine storm to be more apt to take hold. That last sentence is not scientifically proven and Prob. never will be , basically bc there will never be enough funding dedicated to Provide enough real Data (scientifically ) simply bc the dollars allotted to most research goes to new medicine .

You understand that the great majority of cases are under 50 year olds and asymptomatic compared to July?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, radarman said:

look at that chart again... Cases have been setting daily records for 2 Mos.  

Yes, I know asymptomatic testing is a factor.  But the case spike is not new.

I’ve looked at the charts . I understand them very well . I would suggest you go back and look closer At new cases per day. 

 USA cases peaked in July Around 75K Then fell for several weeks With a bit of a plateau around 45 k into September   , deaths peaked in August (3-4 weeks after daily case peak) then fell.

New daily Cases began rising notably in late September and have picked up steam this Last 2 weeks this month considerably to 80K .

Deaths will be 1300 or so in 3.5 weeks . I’m not terrified of this virus in the least but I would bet anyone on the numbers .

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You understand that the great majority of cases are under 50 year olds and asymptomatic compared to July?

I do and that is from the increase in testing we saw that really began this summer . 70-75 K New cases in July peak  still brought 1200-1300 deaths in August mini peak . We will see a similar relationship Bear out by Thanksgiving. I understand colleges are testing more the last several weeks . Again I’m going out and enjoying myself in what I believe is a way I’m comfortable with and Responsible and  living my life ..having fun.
 

Anyway I’m at Nahant on the rocks for a swell and I don’t want to bog this down . 
 

Everyone have a great day , no harm meant with these posts 

[tunafish]

43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You are entitled to your opinion. I think we will be able to judge for sure if this is a "horseshit conspiracy theory" by mid-January. Under your narrative, the media should be absolutely tearing into President Biden by that time. "Blood on his hands" and all that. I think we will see a major decline in COVID media coverage by mid-November depending on who wins. We will see.

BTW, my statement has nothing to do with the actual virus. I am referring to the coverage and propaganda being beamed into everyone's homes. The virus is not a hoax, I am not arguing that. 

"If it bleeds, it leads."  I think COVID will continue to dominate the news regardless of who's in the oval office.

[radarman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’ve looked at the charts . I understand them very well . I would suggest you go back and look closer At new cases per day. 

 USA cases peaked in July Around 75K Then fell for several weeks With a bit of a plateau around 45 k into September   , deaths peaked in August (3-4 weeks after daily case peak) then fell.

New daily Cases began rising notably in late September and have picked up steam this Last 2 weeks month considerably to 80K .

Deaths will be 1300 or so in 3.5 weeks . I’m not terrified of this virus in the least but I would bet anyone on the numbers .

I directly quoted a chart of Spain and was referring to such.  It's similar for France and a lot of Europe.  The US is a large, demographically diverse country with different considerations.  

I stand by my statement that the lag time is long since built in.  And obv with more cases come more deaths at a lag, but there is zero doubt that CFR has fallen drastically based on those graphs.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, radarman said:

I directly quoted a chart of Spain and was referring to such.  It's similar for France and a lot of Europe.  The US is a large, demographically diverse country with different considerations.  

I stand by my statement that the lag time is long since built in.  And obv with more cases come more deaths at a lag, but there is zero doubt that CFR has fallen drastically based on those graphs.

Yes CFR has . I mean we were only testing the sick last spring and really the very sick . Treatments had improved as well, but those treatments still require hospitalization. 

I don’t believe the CFR thou will be much different from the summer mini spike .

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, tunafish said:

"If it bleeds, it leads."  I think COVID will continue to dominate the news regardless of who's in the oval office.

I don't know, certain media outlets did a really good job keeping a lid on the dozens and dozens of people who died in the riots over the summer.

[PhineasC]

Better practices and procedures in the nursing homes can reduce the deaths enormously, since about 40-50% of the deaths in the first wave were in the LTC facilities. Using the "math" from that time period and applying it to outbreaks today seems pretty suspect and exactly the kind of bad science that leads governors and mayors to enact unhelpful lockdowns that make people's lives even worse.

Honestly, from a public health standpoint, there is nothing to fear from a bunch of healthy young adults getting the virus and having the sniffles for a day or two. That's a natural part of getting over this as a species. You need that huge pool of people to survive and gain some immunity, which in turn protects everyone else. This is not even to say how you need these young people out there working so the vulnerable people (and those who are just scared of the virus...) can keep using DoorDash, Amazon, etc.

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yes CFR has . I mean we were only testing the sick last spring and really the very sick . Treatments had improved as well, but those treatments still require hospitalization. 

I don’t believe the CFR thou will be much different from the summer mini spike .

The largest percent positive spike has occurred amongst the age 5-17 group in the past few weeks. So I wouldn’t be surprised if CFR is even a little lower than the summer peak....hopefully that is the case. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Excellent.  Didn't realize he was at my Alma Mater. Nice

No. RWU. In RI. Not URI. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, PowderBeard said:

I'm assuming this is a school other than URI?  I went there and am friends on FB with a few profs and their numbers are much higher. The first few weeks of October the off campus student positivity rate was close to 4% and Greek housing students were testing positive at over 11% (which required a 14 day shelter in place for all students in "Greek" housing). That said, their on campus student positivity rate was fluctuating between 0.40-0.70% which is great. 

Roger Williams.   I should have made that more clear. 

[greenmtnwx]

2 hours ago, radarman said:

The chart is probably a lot more telling about socialization habits than covid.  Chicago is masked up and covid is exploding, but nobody knows their neighbors so it's cool.

 

Meanwhile deaths are nowhere close, not in the same stratosphere as the spring.  So either a) the virus has weakened b) the treatments have improved c) vitamin d helps a lot d) the weakest are already dead e) way, way more people had it in the spring than they knew about f) all of the above

Regardless, deaths don't lie.  It ain't what it used to be, a fact we should celebrate not deny.

This is a great and true post.,

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

If we treated Europe's population like states with similar population in UK Germany  France Spin combined we would be having 160K cases a day. Covid is running crazy no matter the country or state of lockdown.  UGH Back in protect mode for me. 2 back surgeries next month for me. Hopefully not in the middle of a Covid hospital crisis as hospitalized numbers are still very low here Pandemic doing what pandemics do.

Hope all goes well with the surgeries Ginx. 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Hope all goes well with the surgeries Ginx. 

Thanks Mr Eaves I got this. Hope you have a fantastic winter of sledding 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Roger Williams.   I should have made that more clear. 

I found out recently through genetic testing Roger Williams is a distant ancestor to my Mom. Seeing as she was from Arkansas that was cool for this native RI er to read

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I found out recently through genetic testing Roger Williams is a distant ancestor to my Mom. Seeing as she was from Arkansas that was cool for this native RI er to read

Best of luck with the surgeries.  I hope it gives you back some of your freedom or reduces pain

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The largest percent positive spike has occurred amongst the age 5-17 group in the past few weeks. So I wouldn’t be surprised if CFR is even a little lower than the summer peak....hopefully that is the case. 

I wouldn’t either .but mainly for the initial fall spike  I have concerns that concurrent FLU / Covid infections and to a unknown extent VIT  D deficiency (Normal in winter ) Will be factors that will cancel that out when by the time we reach later in fall . Either way we’ll see , hope for the best , and pray for snow .

If my Job goes remote , I’ve been looking for a 3 month rental in NNE At decent elevation . 

[Hoth]

10 hours ago, radarman said:

The chart is probably a lot more telling about socialization habits than covid.  Chicago is masked up and covid is exploding, but nobody knows their neighbors so it's cool.

 

Meanwhile deaths are nowhere close, not in the same stratosphere as the spring.  So either a) the virus has weakened b) the treatments have improved c) vitamin d helps a lot d) the weakest are already dead e) way, way more people had it in the spring than they knew about f) all of the above

Regardless, deaths don't lie.  It ain't what it used to be, a fact we should celebrate not deny.

My money is on E. It was a clusterf&ck with the testing last spring, so the case numbers were probably significantly higher than they are now and we were just missing them. If I remember right, CT had like 11,000 cases and over a 1,000 deaths going into the summer. No way the mortality rate is anywhere near that high. We were just missing a lot of cases.

[monadnocks]

I had a conversation this evening with a friend who was absolutely adamant that not only did Hollis, NH get more snow that the Temple / Greenfield / Francestown area in NH but because Teslas could drive in Hollis snow, they were superior to other vehicles. (We started talking about the new electric pickups that are coming out.) I took a brief look at CoCoRaHs data but it didn't seem to have stations in right area and I know I'd get skewed data. Greenville, for instance, almost always gets less snow than the Monadnock towns I mentioned.

I know the Tesla v other vehicles isn't an important argument but it did get me thinking about data granularity. Is there another site with reliable snowfall data?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Such horseshit   Conspiracy theories with zero evidence have no business being on this board. 

Dude is wacked. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 10/23/2020 at 11:22 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I have no idea what I’ll do for the holidays. I have two very high risk parents and they’re desperate to bring the whole family together.

Probably not practical but you could always have everyone get tested beforehand and be reasonably comfortable getting together. I heard this on the fake news media earlier today. 

[PhineasC]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Probably not practical but you could always have everyone get tested beforehand and be reasonably comfortable getting together. I heard this on the fake news media earlier today. 

LOL

Yeah, for Christmas make grandma show her test results before she can sample the egg nog. 

So dumb. Full kool-aid drinker here, folks.

[Hoosier]

It is no mystery why the Plains and Midwest have been spiking in covid cases.  The weather has been changing and our restrictions in general are not as tough as a number of the northeast states.  In some states, bars and restaurants are allowed to serve indoors at full capacity.  Some don't even have a mask mandate and those that do aren't enforcing it as well as they could.  

Another thing is that it seems that people have developed this notion that a family member or close friend can't infect them... as if viruses work that way.  My concern is that a lot of people will opt for smaller 5-10 person gatherings at Thanksgiving.  Sure, you can't get 20 people sick all at once, but those gatherings are plenty capable of causing spread if one infected person is present.