Fall Banter and General Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

Regarding youth employement numbers.  Back when I was a teen, there were a lot of min wage jobs that adults wouldn’t take so we had a good choice.  I got a supermarket job and was soon making a bunch of $$$.  
A lot of those jobs are now filled by older people as either a second income or to try to make it work for their families.  Fewer openings for high school kids.  There are some to be sure though. Our son has been working at least part time since age 16. 

[PhineasC]

The skilled contractor I have overseeing the work at my house says he has more jobs than he can handle, but his two issues are shortages of materials and shortages of helpers. It seems the work is there but the usual younger helper types don't want to do the work, or they can't for some reason (work ethic, personal issues such as drugs, etc.). It's concerning if construction numbers are already down in the summer, as that is when business is usually booming for these guys. Winters tend to be the lean time.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree and the data backs it up. 

Not to mention all these places that went part time with no Benny's like sick, vacation,  leave, insurance. Wholesale changes started in 2008 and have gotten worse for the people without skills or education.  I highly encouraged all my kids to either get a college degree or get into an apprenticeship. Still extremely hard for the younger ones.  But sometimes you have to work at shit jobs until you gain the skills.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That VT number seems like an outlier. Did they have a tighter lockdown that is to blame?

There has to be some other reason, unless someone just put a decimal point in the wrong place.  I was trying to figure out if any large companies folded or something, ha.

I was also thinking I think I know some folks working those jobs under the table (not sure) but even if it wasn't documented that can't make up for 30% decrease.  Those crews just don't have enough time for the work, like you are experiencing up there.  Every person we called is like well if it's not an emergency, it'll be months.  We've been waiting since June at this point.  Hopefully this month he said. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The skilled contractor I have overseeing the work at my house says he has more jobs than he can handle, but his two issues are shortages of materials and shortages of helpers. It seems the work is there but the usual younger helper types don't want to do the work, or they can't for some reason (work ethic, personal issues such as drugs, etc.). It's concerning if construction numbers are already down in the summer, as that is when business is usually booming for these guys. Winters tend to be the lean time.

My son in law own a very large million dollar a year plus in accounts plumbing business, is facing the same problem with suppliers but luckily has a good workforce and people looking for work applying. Carpenters, electricians are in very short supply 

[BrianW]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The skilled contractor I have overseeing the work at my house says he has more jobs than he can handle, but his two issues are shortages of materials and shortages of helpers. It seems the work is there but the usual younger helper types don't want to do the work, or they can't for some reason (work ethic, personal issues such as drugs, etc.). It's concerning if construction numbers are already down in the summer, as that is when business is usually booming for these guys. Winters tend to be the lean time.

Same here in CT. Outside of my regular job I have been making a fortune off side work all summer. 

My guess is the residential sector is doing well but not large commercial construction and infrastructure. Those are the jobs that put a ton of people to work. Stuff like remodeling a house is peanuts compared to building a new 100 unit apartment complex. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not to mention all these places that went part time with no Benny's like sick, vacation,  leave, insurance. Wholesale changes started in 2008 and have gotten worse for the people without skills or education.  I highly encouraged all my kids to either get a college degree or get into an apprenticeship. Still extremely hard for the younger ones.  But sometimes you have to work at shit jobs until you gain the skills.

Absolutely. I would encourage the trifecta..college, apprenticeships, and building your work portfolio early. A bachelor’s thesedays is equivalent to a high school diploma in the 80s. To separate from the pack now, you have to build yourself up early and often 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Absolutely. I would encourage the trifecta..college, apprenticeships, and building your work portfolio early. A bachelor’s thesedays is equivalent to a high school diploma in the 80s. To separate from the pack now, you have to build yourself early and often 

STEM degrees are where its at

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

STEM degrees are where its at

For sure. I’ll gently push my kids in that direction. My 4yr old son already has that science/math brain makeup. 

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For sure. I’ll gently push my kids in that direction. My 4yr old son already has that science/math brain makeup. 

STEM with a side of athleticism.  A combination for scholarships galore followed by a worthy career. 

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My son in law own a very large million dollar a year plus in accounts plumbing business, is facing the same problem with suppliers but luckily has a good workforce and people looking for work applying. Carpenters, electricians are in very short supply 

If you are an organized business-minded person who likes to work with your hands, there is a ton of money to be made in the trades right now. Biggest hurdle I see with these guys is they have so much work being thrown at them they lose track of it all and get stunted to where they can't grow. Skilled tradesmen are literally being flagged down in parking lots and begged to take jobs, but they are not able to handle the business back-end aspects of that. It's funny and sad to see.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

STEM with a side of athleticism.  A combination for scholarships galore followed by a worthy career. 

6'2" Greek god physique with Einstein IQ... yeah, the kids of America will get right on that!

[PhineasC]

27 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Same here in CT. Outside of my regular job I have been making a fortune off side work all summer. 

My guess is the residential sector is doing well but not large commercial construction and infrastructure. Those are the jobs that put a ton of people to work. Stuff like remodeling a house is peanuts compared to building a new 100 unit apartment complex. 

Yep, that's probably it. Sure, the guy working on my deck with 2 helpers may be slammed building patios for restaurants too, but that is small-time work compared to building a brand-new hotel. It's also work that will dry up shortly.

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If you are an organized business-minded person who likes to work with your hands, there is a ton of money to be made in the trades right now. Biggest hurdle I see with these guys is they have so much work being thrown at them they lose track of it all and get stunted to where they can't grow. Skilled tradesmen are literally being flagged down in parking lots and begged to take jobs, but they are not able to handle the business back-end aspects of that. It's funny and sad to see.

Yes!  Last time we had work done it took the guy 8 months to bill us despite repeated pleas that we wanted to give him our money for work he performed.  My folks had the same problem recently with a landscaper, I still don’t think they’ve paid him from June despite wanting to.  They show up do the work but there’s no one running the “office” or accounting side of things... just one job to the next and “we’ll bill you soon.”  Scheduling is often hit or miss too... forgotten times, etc.

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, that's probably it. Sure, the guy working on my deck with 2 helpers may be slammed building patios for restaurants too, but that is small-time work compared to building a brand-new hotel. It's also work that will dry up shortly.

Commercial real estate is a blood bath right now...I would bet dollars to donuts that's where a ton of the construction job losses are at.

[BrianW]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Commercial real estate is a blood bath right now...I would bet dollars to donuts that's where a ton of the construction job losses are at.

Yep. I just read that something like 83% of NYC restaurants and bars can't make their rent and almost 40% have not paid any at all since March. It looks Iike the commercial evictions are starting here in CT. Just saw a couple posts on Facebook of restaurants/bars near me setting up go fund me's as they are being evicted. 

Another thing I have been hearing about is there are big impacts to the rental market. CT just extended the no eviction moratorium so landlords are now requiring huge amounts of upfront deposits and like perfect credit.

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Commercial real estate is a blood bath right now...I would bet dollars to donuts that's where a ton of the construction job losses are at.

I wonder if any of it in VT is tied to that $200-$300 million construction project in Burlington that stalled before COVID too.  Largest commercial construction in the state.   It was going to be the largest structure in Vermont but they’ve been in legal battles for a bit.  I think the last work done at all was last November?  Maybe the other VTers know more on that.

True on those sized projects that employ hundreds of construction workers will jack up those percentages.

[klw]

5 hours ago, BrianW said:

I was looking at the unemployment numbers in New England. Didn't realize how bad it is in VT. Every category has had some pretty big job losses. Leisure and hospitality has a 46.5% job loss compared to July 2019. Construction is down 31.6%. 

How bad is it up there considering a huge portion of the jobs there are leisure and hospitality? Isn't that sector most of the economy up there? 

 

http://www.vtlmi.info/press.pdf

If you look hospitality is not the biggest employment sector but rather is behind government, health care, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing.  Sure it does add money to some other sectors but Vermont is not as dependent on tourism as perceived though it certainly helps.

[klw]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that makes no sense to me.  I have two friends who have bailed on the service industry, one is going to trade school then an apprenticeship to be an electrician after he saw how much demand there was for that job throughout this whole thing, and another is becoming a welder.  They know they'll have to suffer for a few years of low pay but hope for a more stable payoff later.  Like getting an electrician or plumber to your house right now is maybe even months if it's not an emergency call.

Also the strong real estate market state-wide (from down near Mass border straight to Jay Peak) right now that has people gobbling up places just days within being put on the market, many of those folks are all making upgrades or changes to their new properties and are providing a never ending line of work for construction/electricians/plumbers/etc. 

-30% just makes no sense in that line at all.

2 possible explanations:

1.  The numbers we are looking at are from July.  The State really reopened in June.  Many professional services required for closing on houses were not really running until then so Attorneys could not do title searches, hold closings, etc.  So even if that place for sale was instantly under contract places were not closing until July.  Then you need to get in, figure out what changes are to be done, get contractors etc- so there is a time line.  Thus the huge explosion recently in construction material costs.  Lets see where those construction employment figures are come September.

2.  Vermont may not put electricians, plumbers under the construction category but as other professional services.  It could be an accounting issue.

Also:

Fewer kids are going into trades up here.  For instance when we first moved to the St. Johnsbury area, the St J Academy had a thriving electrical program with two full time teachers.  We had a class of kids come out and do wiring projects at our house.  Within 2 years, one of the teachers were gone and the program was hanging on by a thread due to lack of student interest despite the opportunities that are out there in the area for good reliable electricians, plumbers, etc.

[klw]

Killington folks gone wild.

https://www.wcax.com/2020/08/31/state-probing-covid-cases-related-to-killington-party/

Quote

 

The Rutland County cases are associated with people who attended a private party at the Summit Lodge in Killington on August 19. So far, the Health Department has identified 14 cases among people who attended the event and their close contacts. Health officials say some of the more than 40 people who attended the party brought the virus back and infected close contacts who were not there.

Vermont Health Commissioner Dr. Mark Levine says both Vermonters and out of state people attended the party. He urged anyone who was at the party or in contact with someone there to call the health department and that if contact tracers call you, to pick up the phone and “check your feelings at the door.” He says there have been a few people who are uncooperative.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, klw said:

Killington folks gone wild.

https://www.wcax.com/2020/08/31/state-probing-covid-cases-related-to-killington-party/

 

Skivt2 just threw her computer out the window.

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup no one at all should be mailing in ballots unless they are wanting to aid in potential ballot fraud 

You can go out to eat, To the bars, And all the stores, You can go to the polls, Its a poor excuse being portrayed.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Skivt2 just threw her computer out the window.

Ha, I think it was mentioned in the ski thread... but not what the ski industry needs heading into the fall.  Even in COVID times Killington fulfills it’s reputation as a party spot .

[dryslot]

My company has been fortunate thru this whole crisis, I'm one of the essential businesses, We've been balls to the wall since March and i'm up 28% over last years numbers.

[PhineasC]

33 minutes ago, klw said:

2 possible explanations:

1.  The numbers we are looking at are from July.  The State really reopened in June.  Many professional services required for closing on houses were not really running until then so Attorneys could not do title searches, hold closings, etc.  So even if that place for sale was instantly under contract places were not closing until July.  Then you need to get in, figure out what changes are to be done, get contractors etc- so there is a time line.  Thus the huge explosion recently in construction material costs.  Lets see where those construction employment figures are come September.

2.  Vermont may not put electricians, plumbers under the construction category but as other professional services.  It could be an accounting issue.

Also:

Fewer kids are going into trades up here.  For instance when we first moved to the St. Johnsbury area, the St J Academy had a thriving electrical program with two full time teachers.  We had a class of kids come out and do wiring projects at our house.  Within 2 years, one of the teachers were gone and the program was hanging on by a thread due to lack of student interest despite the opportunities that are out there in the area for good reliable electricians, plumbers, etc.

Something needs to change culturally with the trades to get kids back involved. I have noticed the skilled guys are getting older and older and slowing down. There is so much work there. Yes, it is hard at first, but if you are organized you can quickly grow to having a crew and stepping back a bit. I often think about gathering up some of these local tradesmen up here and forming them into a single company with back-office and billing support. Make them all wear company branded polo shirts and khakis to the on-time free estimates too. LOL 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

If you are an organized business-minded person who likes to work with your hands, there is a ton of money to be made in the trades right now. Biggest hurdle I see with these guys is they have so much work being thrown at them they lose track of it all and get stunted to where they can't grow. Skilled tradesmen are literally being flagged down in parking lots and begged to take jobs, but they are not able to handle the business back-end aspects of that. It's funny and sad to see.

Keeping your service customers is key to surviving the down times, he is very cognizant of that. Service is not lucrative but it’s important as a safeguard if new construction drops

[PhineasC]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Skivt2 just threw her computer out the window.

No, she needs that to read what they are saying about her on the closed Facebook groups.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

No, she needs that to read what they are saying about her on the closed Facebook groups.

My wife belongs to most of the community groups around here...and they seem mostly fine and I can get why you'd want to use them for community info. But there have been some occasional vile fights on there.

The one skivt2 is part of at Killington seems especially toxic though...there's gotta be another source of community info around there so you don't have to be subjected to those morons.

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can go out to eat, To the bars, And all the stores, You can go to the polls, Its a poor excuse being portrayed.

It’s another way “they” have to attempt to get him to lose 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Something needs to change culturally with the trades to get kids back involved. I have noticed the skilled guys are getting older and older and slowing down. There is so much work there. Yes, it is hard at first, but if you are organized you can quickly grow to having a crew and stepping back a bit. I often think about gathering up some of these local tradesmen up here and forming them into a single company with back-office and billing support. Make them all wear company branded polo shirts and khakis to the on-time free estimates too. LOL 

I’m already like “what’s the phone number of this company and will it service NVT too?”