Fall Banter and General Discussion

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah for sure.  That entire industry is incredibly tough.  No on is getting rich off a restaurant it seems.  When I go home to visit my parents in Albany, they are always talking about a new restaurant to try out that is located in the same buildings as the ones that failed before, it's almost comical at times.  Like oh that building was an Italian restaurant for 4 years then went under, then someone thought they could make a run of it as a Thai restaurant and then it lasted 2.5 years, and now there's a BBQ style joint in there, etc.

The people who become wealthy off the restaurant business have several of them and they are high-end/pricy. They also take their money from that and parlay it into other more profitable ventures.

The guy who owns the local Italian place in town is not getting "rich." I cringe when I see young idealist types point at someone like that and put them in the same category as Jeff Bezos: a rich fatcat who needs to be taxed to death.

[powderfreak]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The people who become wealthy off the restaurant business have several of them and they are high-end/pricy. They also take their money from that and parlay it into other more profitable ventures.

The guy who owns the local Italian place in town is not getting "rich." I cringe when I see young idealist types point at someone like that and put them in the same category as Jeff Bezos: a rich fatcat who needs to be taxed to death.

Ha yup, I dishwashed at a local Italian place through high school on like Thur/Fri/Sat nights... that operation had the two owners as cooks, one other line-cook, me as a dishwasher, and like a handful of servers.  The owners easily worked 80 hours a week and always seemed to barely be making ends meet every month.  And it was like a "fancier" Italian spot in town.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is plenty of work out there, you just have to want to do it. Many don't. A lot of kids from the middle class don't even work in HS anymore. When I was in HS, we all worked part-time jobs. You had to make money somehow.

Ding ding.  100% correct.  Part of it also is the $15 per hour push (though I admit that I pushed for it as well) for many of the jobs by today's younger generation as well.  Many of the younger generation that are coming out of HS into college don't want to do what they consider as menial jobs.  In addition, if it gets "too hard", they quit.  

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Awful,  some here were saying that once spring was over things would drastically improve.  Horrible for VT

It did get better for sure in summer... There are certainly a lack of the lowest level service jobs and that's probably it for sure in the percentages.  There's a distinct lack of $12/hr jobs right now that come with full hotels (say having 40 housekeepers instead of 12 right now) and stuff like that... most that are back at work were supervisory or higher levels but also quite a few high school kids working as well, so who knows.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 19 19? Check again. The world depends on US unfortunately to be oversight. Otherwise there are bad actors ready to pounce. Thats a reality many don't understand but at least we are pulling out of the thousand year tribal wars. I remain confident things will improve step by step. Obviously the world suffered a huge Covid setback and the climb out will take time. Will the USA ever be Utopia, probably not but its better than many alternatives. Much work needs to be done and it starts with jobs and equal opportunity for all. 

 

We haven’t pulled out of the tribal wars. Nothing has changed on the ground. Big talk and big words that we are brining our troops home doesn’t negate the fact that we still waste trillions overseas. We don’t need to be everyone’s big brother. Bad actors ready to pounce? How about we don’t instigate in the first place. We can still spend on defense but do it wiser...we don’t need bases everywhere. While our troops are stationed and our tax money is wasted...our infrastructure is crumbling. 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I feel like a lot of people are just "floating" right now without a job and exhausting every last source of credit they have, which gives the impression that all is well, but the huge crash is coming soon. There is a lag effect at work.

Yeah the full fallout hasn't happened yet. That probably won't be felt completely until sometime next year. My guess is Q1/Q2 2021.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the full fallout hasn't happened yet. That probably won't be felt completely until sometime next year. My guess is Q1/Q2 2021.

Yeah that must be it because despair is not something you hear about up here despite those numbers Ginxy commented on.  Maybe down the road it'll really hit hard.  Some 22-year-old who is a bellhop that's out of work right now is mostly just mountain biking waiting for winter seasonal jobs to ramp back up, lol.  But that's life in these towns, it just so much different than normal places. 

It would be interesting to see an age breakdown of those out of work.  And also in the seasonal service sector many are used to skirting the edges anyway but when I think of despair, I think of folks who were making $75k but now find themselves without a job, with a house and family that can't support themselves.  Now that's scary.  Not the 20-somethings in ski towns who seem to just survive regardless and can exist on $300/week.  I remember those days for sure. 

[binbisso]

How accurate are the covid-19 antibody test I went for my physical yesterday and had one done it came back positive I saw it on my chart from my provider I have not spoken to my doctor yet it says that there could be false positives from other covid-19 infections in the past. Never had any symptoms

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We haven’t pulled out of the tribal wars. Nothing has changed on the ground. Big talk and big words that we are brining our troops home doesn’t negate the fact that we still waste trillions overseas. We don’t need to be everyone’s big brother. Bad actors ready to pounce? How about we don’t instigate in the first place. We can still spend on defense but do it wiser...we don’t need bases everywhere. While our troops are stationed and our tax money is wasted...our infrastructure is crumbling. 

Sorry you hate anything American. Sad 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Only way to do that is by penalizing companies from moving their production plants overseas. Otherwise, what incentive do they have when profit rules the day? Now...add in automation on top of it and it’s lights out. New slogan ‘Made in America...by Machines.’

Machines that make machines to be sold by machines for the use of other machines. The common persons final contribution, of course, Soylent Green. As always .....

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It did get better for sure in summer... There are certainly a lack of the lowest level service jobs and that's probably it for sure in the percentages.  There's a distinct lack of $12/hr jobs right now that come with full hotels (say having 40 housekeepers instead of 12 right now) and stuff like that... most that are back at work were supervisory or higher levels but also quite a few high school kids working as well, so who knows.

Wait take at a look at the biggest changes in %from 19, for construction and manufacturing.  Seriously not those $12 hr jobs you are talking about

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wait take at a look at the biggest changes in %from 19, construction and manufacturing.  Seriously not those $12 hr jobs you are talking about

 

Yeah weird, there are ads on the radio all day long for manufacturing jobs... especially 2nd and 3rd shifts with extra shift pay, $500 sign on bonus and Monday-Friday with weekends off.  Ha, the ads always sound appealing but guess no one is filling them.

Construction is also surprising given the boom seen with stimulus payments and commercial additions and all that.  We’ve been waiting for 4 months to have $10,000 of work done on our place.  The owner gave me the impression that industry has been flat out with work, but guess that doesn’t show employment numbers.

Be interesting to see how foreclosures go in a few years.  It’s not a rosy picture, but it could just be that the hit is coming next year as Will said.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sorry you hate anything American. Sad 

Huh? How do you come up with that conclusion from me saying we need to invest in America lol...holy spin on your part. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah weird, there are ads on the radio all day long for manufacturing jobs... especially 2nd and 3rd shifts with extra shift pay, $500 sign on bonus and Monday-Friday with weekends off.  Ha, the ads always sound appealing but guess no one is filling them.

Construction is also surprising given the boom seen with stimulus payments and commercial additions and all that.  We’ve been waiting for 4 months to have $10,000 of work done on our place.

Be interesting to see how foreclosures go in a few years.  

I know that construction is off the hook here but contractors are having trouble getting workers and supplies.  Ct is doing exceptionally well outside the service industry.  Governor Lamont kept manufacturing and construction open throughout the entire lockdown.  A big key around here anyways 

[Ginx snewx]

wow just looked at unemployment numbers by state and Massachusetts is dead last with a 16% rate. Why is Mass so bad compared with the rest of New England.  Seems like they have the same basic economics as CT and RI. NH Maine and VT have tourism issues. Would be interesting to find out.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I know that construction is off the hook here but contractors are having trouble getting workers and supplies.  Ct is doing exceptionally well outside the service industry.  Governor Lamont kept manufacturing and construction open throughout the entire lockdown.  A big key around here anyways 

I agreed.  Bolded is a huge plus.  I honestly am surprised to see manufacturing and construction as the big changes in VT...maybe they haven’t rebounded yet?  I’m not kidding when I say a day doesn’t go by on my short drive to the mountain that there’s an ad for manufacturing jobs on the radio and if I wasn’t attached to what I do those jobs sound pretty damn good for someone unemployed.  And wait times for any residential or commercial construction is significant right now. 

Service industry makes sense as essentially they need 50% of the entry level staff to handle 50% of the guests... or even less as many places are trying to do it with only their year round staff.  But construction and manufacturing are surprising, not sure what’s going on there.

[BrianW]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wait take at a look at the biggest changes in %from 19, for construction and manufacturing.  Seriously not those $12 hr jobs you are talking 

Yeah Vermonts number is alarming as construction jobs are usually well paid. Think of all the electricians, plumbers, engineers, architects, etc that are tied in with it  

Here is a comparison to the rest of New England. Construction job loses from July 19.

Vermont -31.6

Maine -2.0

NH -4.0

CT -5.4

Mass -13

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agreed.  Bolded is a huge plus.  I honestly am surprised to see manufacturing and construction as the big changes in VT...maybe they haven’t rebounded yet?  I’m not kidding when I say a day doesn’t go by on my short drive to the mountain that there’s an ad for manufacturing jobs on the radio and if I wasn’t attached to what I do those jobs sound pretty damn good for someone unemployed.  And wait times for any residential or commercial construction is significant right now. 

Service industry makes sense as essentially they need 50% of the entry level staff to handle 50% of the guests... or even less as many places are trying to do it with only their year round staff.  But construction and manufacturing are surprising, not sure what’s going on there.

 

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Yeah Vermonts number is alarming as construction jobs are usually well paid. Think of all the electricians, plumbers, engineers, architects, etc that are tied in with it  

Here is a comparison to the rest of New England. Construction job loses from July 19.

Vermont -31.6

Maine -2.0

NH -4.0

CT -5.4

Mass -13

Wow. Wonder why. Like PF said seems the work is there and he is on a wait list.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

53 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ding ding.  100% correct.  Part of it also is the $15 per hour push (though I admit that I pushed for it as well) for many of the jobs by today's younger generation as well.  Many of the younger generation that are coming out of HS into college don't want to do what they consider as menial jobs.  In addition, if it gets "too hard", they quit.  

I think this is just mostly a boomer talking point. I’m 26 and have worked since I was 14. And so have most of my peers.

The biggest problem is that minimum wage hasn’t come close to following the curve of living expenses. A minimum wage job 20-30-40 years ago is a lot different than it is now.

[Skivt2]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agreed.  Bolded is a huge plus.  I honestly am surprised to see manufacturing and construction as the big changes in VT...maybe they haven’t rebounded yet?  I’m not kidding when I say a day doesn’t go by on my short drive to the mountain that there’s an ad for manufacturing jobs on the radio and if I wasn’t attached to what I do those jobs sound pretty damn good for someone unemployed.  And wait times for any residential or commercial construction is significant right now. 

Service industry makes sense as essentially they need 50% of the entry level staff to handle 50% of the guests... or even less as many places are trying to do it with only their year round staff.  But construction and manufacturing are surprising.

 Manufacturing sucks.  My husband was a high precision CNC machinist for 30 years.  Automation and recessions reduced the # of jobs and stagnated wage growth so most machinists get raises like .12 an hour per year etc.  The job is somewhat dangerous and high stress.  You stand up on hard cement floors 10 hours a day breathing god knows what chemicals with not even a stool to perch on occasionally.  And you do that for 6-7 days a week.  In VT you might get $16/hour. On top of that there is virtually no security as companies lay off and rehire to keep wages down as contracts ebb and flow.  In the old days you might run 1-2 machines. Now it’s 3-4 where you are litterally running back and forth all day.  No time to sit for a second if you wanted to.  And they expect you to inspect the parts and debur them too as if somehow there is time for that.  God forbid you get everything running and have a second to spare there is no relaxing.  Grab a broom and sweep.  All while drilling on parts worth hundreds of thousands made of the hardest metals known; inconell, waspalloy, and shit that can catch fire like titanium using ceramic and metal drills that can shatter and kill you or someone standing nearby.  They will tell you you can have Saturday/Sunday off but once you are there for a few months they change their tune and demand those days too.  Sure lots of overtime.  You can make decent money but it’s no life.  

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think this is just mostly a boomer talking point. I’m 26 and have worked since I was 14. And so have most of my peers.

The biggest problem is that minimum wage hasn’t come close to following the curve of living expenses. A minimum wage job 20-30-40 years ago is a lot different than it is now.

Employment rate of younger adults/teens has steadily declined since peaking in the 1980s. Back then, ages 16-24 employment rate was 60%...it hovered around 58% in the 1990s and in the 2010s it's been consistently below 50% until 2017 when it finally made it back over 50% until the pandemic put a screeching halt to that trend.

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think this is just mostly a boomer talking point. I’m 26 and have worked since I was 14. And so have most of my peers.

The biggest problem is that minimum wage hasn’t come close to following the curve of living expenses. A minimum wage job 20-30-40 years ago is a lot different than it is now.

I employed about 170 people when I was facility director over the years. My long term employees were all over 35, my constant position changes were filled with 20 to 25 year olds. I often hired people who had previous records and many issues. I was always trying to give people second chances. Granted the jobs were not glorious but with hard work, overtime and event tips they could make 45 to 50 k a year with good benefits. The turnover was great and a big problem trying to get employees. After things fell apart at work prior to my layoff it got incredibly hard to find employees.  The incentive wasn't there and I didn't blame anyone for not wanting to work at a place part time with no benefits at crappy 15 dollar an hour rates, but prior to that I was disappointed in the young ones.

 

[BrianW]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Wow. Wonder why. Like PF said seems the work is there and he is on a wait list.

Probably because in a place like Stowe where 70 percent of the properties are taxed as vacation homes there is plenty of money and demand for construction work. 

The numbers are showing its clearly much different in the rest of the state. Considering VT has a population of only 623k the unemployment numbers are eye opening. 

 

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Yeah Vermonts number is alarming as construction jobs are usually well paid. Think of all the electricians, plumbers, engineers, architects, etc that are tied in with it  

Here is a comparison to the rest of New England. Construction job loses from July 19.

Vermont -31.6

Maine -2.0

NH -4.0

CT -5.4

Mass -13

Yeah that makes no sense to me.  I have two friends who have bailed on the service industry, one is going to trade school then an apprenticeship to be an electrician after he saw how much demand there was for that job throughout this whole thing, and another is becoming a welder.  They know they'll have to suffer for a few years of low pay but hope for a more stable payoff later.  Like getting an electrician or plumber to your house right now is maybe even months if it's not an emergency call.

Also the strong real estate market state-wide (from down near Mass border straight to Jay Peak) right now that has people gobbling up places just days within being put on the market, many of those folks are all making upgrades or changes to their new properties and are providing a never ending line of work for construction/electricians/plumbers/etc. 

-30% just makes no sense in that line at all.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

 Manufacturing sucks.  My husband was a high precision CNC machinist for 30 years.  Automation and recessions reduced the # of jobs and stagnated wage growth so most machinists get raises like .12 an hour per year etc.  The job is somewhat dangerous and high stress.  You stand up on hard cement floors 10 hours a day breathing god knows what chemicals with not even a stool to perch on occasionally.  And you do that for 6-7 days a week.  In VT you might get $16/hour. On top of that there is virtually no security as companies lay off and rehire to keep wages down as contracts ebb and flow.  In the old days you might run 1-2 machines. Now it’s 3-4 where you are litterally running back and forth all day.  No time to sit for a second if you wanted to.  And they expect you to inspect the parts and debur them too as if somehow there is time for that.  God forbid you get everything running and have a second to spare there is no relaxing.  Grab a broom and sweep.  All while drilling on parts worth hundreds of thousands made of the hardest metals known; inconell, waspalloy, and shit that can catch fire like titanium using ceramic and metal drills that can shatter and kill you or someone standing nearby.  They will tell you you can have Saturday/Sunday off but once you are there for a few months they change their tune and demand those days too.  Sure lots of overtime.  You can make decent money but it’s no life.  

Lol man I can relate, my first 11 years of full time employment were at a machinist assembly plant. However the pay and benefits were outstanding,  we were unionized so maybe that's why. However out of the 600 people who worked there approximately 350 developed some sort of cancer. No way to recoup as a German company bought the business and beat feet and destroyed all records. Tri chlorethene was what we washed the grease off of us, also Cadium plating. I know everyone who got cancer as I was Chief Union Steward and had relationships with them. Personally 6 of my friends who worked there got cancer, 3 died. I guess I am a ticking time bomb. Times were different then with chemical handling PPE. Sucks

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think this is just mostly a boomer talking point. I’m 26 and have worked since I was 14. And so have most of my peers.

The biggest problem is that minimum wage hasn’t come close to following the curve of living expenses. A minimum wage job 20-30-40 years ago is a lot different than it is now.

Agree and the data backs it up. 

[NorEastermass128]

Just got notification from my employer that we will be participating in Trump’s payroll tax DEFERRAL.  I understand the 6.2% withheld for OASDI will be deferred for now and then collected next year. So, we get a net pay bump now, get used to it, and then a big net pay wallop to start off 2021.  Brilliant policymaking if I do say so myself. 
 

Of course, if we re-elect Trump, we’re good and don’t have to pay the deferred OASDI contributions back, right?

[powderfreak]

Just now, BrianW said:

Probably because in a place like Stowe where 70 percent of the properties are taxed as vacation homes there is plenty of money and demand for construction work. 

The numbers are showing its clearly much different in the rest of the state. Considering VT has a population of only 623k the unemployment numbers are eye opening. 

 

Still there has to be something more to it.  I'm waitlisted on a guy who's company is over an hour away.  Most of the trade jobs are located/live in much more rural areas that feed into the tourist spots, but I'd still like to see a further breakdown on that judging by how hard it is for anyone between here and Montpelier/Burlington to get any work done.

[PhineasC]

34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think this is just mostly a boomer talking point. I’m 26 and have worked since I was 14. And so have most of my peers.

The biggest problem is that minimum wage hasn’t come close to following the curve of living expenses. A minimum wage job 20-30-40 years ago is a lot different than it is now.

Get off my lawn!

[PhineasC]

44 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Yeah Vermonts number is alarming as construction jobs are usually well paid. Think of all the electricians, plumbers, engineers, architects, etc that are tied in with it  

Here is a comparison to the rest of New England. Construction job loses from July 19.

Vermont -31.6

Maine -2.0

NH -4.0

CT -5.4

Mass -13

That VT number seems like an outlier. Did they have a tighter lockdown that is to blame?