Fall Banter and General Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

This pandemic has been a goldmine for the Libertarian dream of home schooling the masses.  The Mises Institute and Ron Paul Curriculum are making a boatload of money off this pandemic and peddling their home schooling products.  I used to know quite a few Libertarian activists. Sure, they'd espouse their usual neoliberal philosophies, but they were especially passionate -- and obsessed - with homeschooling.  One o them even started their own company with their own home schooling curriculum.  With every crisis comes opportunity, they say.

My wife tutors on the side and this year has been obscene...she’s having to turn down prospective clients left and right because her schedule is already too full. She’s never had this many people requesting tutoring sessions.

The sessions actually work pretty well over zoom when you hook up the iPad to the laptop and use it as a “virtual paper” to write on. She got the pen for it and everything and it works like a charm. I was skeptical beforehand asking her how she would tutor virtually, but it’s been easy peasy. 

But yeah....business is booming in the personal tutoring world. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Vermont seemed to finally break thru their Covid Inversion 

Wonder what they will do shortly to address that and what it will mean for resorts / skiing . Maybe they do nothing

I will ponder that from the Von Trapp lodge In 36 hours . Might not be able to travel there soon . 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah for some districts it’s going to be brutal. Luckily, my wife’s district was 1 to 1 (chrome books) even before covid so they didn’t have to invest in the technology. But for places that needed to invest, that’s a massive hole blown in the budget. 

The school administrations have shown to be conniving dipsh*ts for the most part. They are not afraid at all to throw teachers under the bus to cover for their incompetence in planning or delegating resources to this. It has made morale lower amongst the teachers which is exactly what you don’t want to be doing when their workload is drastically increased.

I already didn’t have a high opinion of school administrators before this....

This is going on in a lot of places. We voted to give up our raises and retirement matching this fiscal year (July to July) in hopes of saving jobs. Since doing that, we have all been worked like dogs and morale has never been lower (some guys have been there 25-30 years) so you know it’s bad if they agree.

Our contract is up in July and negotiations are set to begin sometime after the new year. Pretty brutal time to be going in for negotiations. I’d be willing to bet we will be hit with the “ you are fortunate to still be employed” line.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This pandemic has also been a fantastic excuse to scale back benefits for a lot of businesses. Consolidating time off perks, getting rid of fringe benefits, and especially retirement contributions. 
 

The average joe is taking a beating even if they still technically have their job. 
 

This is happening all over too.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Vermont seemed to finally break thru their Covid Inversion 

Wonder what they will do shortly to address that and what it will mean for resorts / skiing . Maybe they do nothing

I will ponder that from the Von Trapp lodge In 36 hours . Might not be able to travel there soon . 

I said it in the skiing thread a while back but I’m going to wait out the first few weeks and see how the ski mountains operate. Not that I usually ski on icy ribbons of death anyway in early December....

If we have a fast start though with a lot of natural snow then it will be tempting. 

[bwt3650]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I said it in the skiing thread a while back but I’m going to wait out the first few weeks and see how the ski mountains operate. Not that I usually ski on icy ribbons of death anyway in early December....

If we have a fast start though with a lot of natural snow then it will be tempting. 

Minus the after ski bar hopping, which can be controlled, there really aren't many safer activities.  People need to find some enjoyment and they will.  Better to be outdoors than in.  This weeks looks like a good window to pound out the man made.  

[bwt3650]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Vermont seemed to finally break thru their Covid Inversion 

Wonder what they will do shortly to address that and what it will mean for resorts / skiing . Maybe they do nothing

I will ponder that from the Von Trapp lodge Saturday 

I bet that county map would have many in-state counties higher than the neighboring state's counties due to population ratios in the next couple weeks if they had stuck with it.

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

This pandemic has been a goldmine for the Libertarian dream of home schooling the masses.  The Mises Institute and Ron Paul Curriculum are making a boatload of money off this pandemic and peddling their home schooling products.  I used to know quite a few Libertarian activists. Sure, they'd espouse their usual neoliberal philosophies, but they were especially passionate -- and obsessed - with homeschooling.  One o them even started their own company with their own home schooling curriculum.  With every crisis comes opportunity, they say.

Homeschooling is a way better bet than what is happening in the schools right now, assuming you can swing it (it's a big commitment).

So glad we did it. Never looking back.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:

Minus the after ski bar hopping, which can be controlled, there really aren't many safer activities.  People need to find some enjoyment and they will.  Better to be outdoors than in.  This weeks looks like a good window to pound out the man made.  

The lodging aspect will be tough...lodging = “ski lodge” in this case. Those things usually get packed for lunch but they can’t do that this winter. I’m sure some will be trying to spread the crowds outdoors but that’s only going to go so far....we all know about those days on the mountain where the high is like 5F.

But yeah, the actual skiing part is about as safe an activity as you can do. Outdoors and many people already have face coverings anyway. 

[BrianW]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The lodging aspect will be tough...lodging = “ski lodge” in this case. Those things usually get packed for lunch but they can’t do that this winter. I’m sure some will be trying to spread the crowds outdoors but that’s only going to go so far....we all know about those days on the mountain where the high is like 5F.

But yeah, the actual skiing part is about as safe an activity as you can do. Outdoors and many people already have face coverings anyway. 

Most of those lodges probably have poor or no ventilation either. Most of them appear to be heated with pellet stoves, fireplaces, wall heaters,  etc. Since their is zero need in most lodges for ac they have no ductwork. 

[klw]

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Vermont seemed to finally break thru their Covid Inversion 

Wonder what they will do shortly to address that and what it will mean for resorts / skiing . Maybe they do nothing

I will ponder that from the Von Trapp lodge In 36 hours . Might not be able to travel there soon . 

Do you know that they increased the quarantine requirements again?  You have to quarantine for 7 days at home and then have a negative test or quarantine for 14 days.

https://www.healthvermont.gov/covid-19/travel-quarantine/visitors-vermont

[klw]

10 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I bet that county map would have many in-state counties higher than the neighboring state's counties due to population ratios in the next couple weeks if they had stuck with it.

Map is still being made though it has been over-ridden.  Currently only 2 VT counties (Rutland and Franklin) would meet the safe to travel criteria set at 400 active cases per 100k and Rutland now has a nursing home outbreak so I doubt it will continue to meet the level for long.  Only two counties, 1 in Maine and 1 in NY would still meet the "safe to travel" limit.

Map can be found here:

https://accd.vermont.gov/covid-19/restart/cross-state-travel?wpmobileexternal=true

[powderfreak]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The lodging aspect will be tough...lodging = “ski lodge” in this case. Those things usually get packed for lunch but they can’t do that this winter. I’m sure some will be trying to spread the crowds outdoors but that’s only going to go so far....we all know about those days on the mountain where the high is like 5F.

But yeah, the actual skiing part is about as safe an activity as you can do. Outdoors and many people already have face coverings anyway. 

This is what lodges will look like.  Very empty.  With a line outside.

These are from a travel writer who was at Keystone last weekend.  This was the size of the crowd that Vail Resorts restricted via reservation system.

Very, very controlled environment.  Many people agreed even after COVID it should be like this, private country club style.

This isn’t because the demand isn’t there, they curtailed supply drastically to allow for a very crowd free environment.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Fox running pieces like this seems a bit irresponsible, antagonistic and certainly isn’t helping. 
 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/musk-says-took-four-covid-19-tests-two-were-positive-two-negative

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Fox running pieces like this seems a bit irresponsible, antagonistic and certainly isn’t helping. 
 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/musk-says-took-four-covid-19-tests-two-were-positive-two-negative

Elon Musk should never be quoted as an authority on anything, including car manufacturing. This is the same guy who predicted by the end of April COVID would be gone in the U.S.

[powderfreak]

11 hours ago, White Rain said:

I can see many of the ski resorts in Vermont go under if the restrictions keep up all winter, where as a place like Wachusett will be fine who does not rely on out of state business.

I may be completely out to lunch and I’m not saying the ski areas won’t struggle financially... but I don’t think it’s because of traveler restrictions.

The ski areas are planning to take maybe 50% or even less of their normal visitors just as a COVID precaution as it is.  I bet it’ll be even less given lift capacity of only like parties riding together, capacity of lodges (say 1 person for every 200 square feet including staff), etc.

I still think the public is thinking ski area business should be normal all else considered... but these places are planning, staffing, etc for only allowing less than 50% of normal visitations regardless of travel restrictions.

Its sort of why I say without restrictions it’s a terrible experience (like this summer at times) where you go on vacation and can’t ski, can’t eat out, etc because of the broader capacity restrictions.  And I think we’ll see that too.  Frustrations among the public that they are being capped out of doing what they want.

Things are being planned to operate at a very low number of visitors relative to normal.  Just look at the Keystone images.  They capped skier visits low to make a very controlled environment.

[Cold Miser]

13 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Too many people are selfish and more concerned about themselves than kids. Keeping kids out of school and isolated has zero to do with keeping them safe. It is all about the adults.

I feel really bad for the only-children who are doing all remote learning. Just crushing isolation since March for them.

My girlfriend's brother has a 5 year old son and he has been in lockdown since March.  I think, with the exception of going into his tiny Boston backyard, and a few walks to the park he has really only left the property a handful of times.  

[PhineasC]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

My girlfriend's brother has a 5 year old son and he has been in lockdown since March.  I think, with the exception of going into his tiny Boston backyard, and a few walks to the park he has really only left the property a handful of times.  

That's a shame. The fear some parents have over the virus is trickling down to their kids and messing them up.

[Cold Miser]

12 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The amount of effort put in by our custodial staff, admins, support staff and teacher, on a budget of close to zero, to make our building as safe as possible has been astounding.   I understand it is hard for a lot of kids and parents to accept the way it has been set up, the new rules etc. but if we are going to stay open we have to follow state and CDC guidelines as much as possible    I’m trying to make it fun and close to normal but damn it is hard. And the crap thrown at us by much of the public has been reprehensible.  We are not the ones closing the schools or writing the mandates.  Local elected school boards and health officials determine that 

Melina told me that your gym teacher's are pretty much doing hardly anything.  What a joke on-line gym class must have been prior to the "hybrid" this week. 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I may be completely out to lunch and I’m not saying the ski areas won’t struggle financially... but I don’t think it’s because of traveler restrictions.

The ski areas are planning to take maybe 50% or even less of their normal visitors just as a COVID precaution as it is.  I bet it’ll be even less given lift capacity of only like parties riding together, capacity of lodges (say 1 person for every 200 square feet including staff), etc.

I still think the public is thinking ski area business should be normal all else considered... but these places are planning, staffing, etc for only allowing less than 50% of normal visitations regardless of travel restrictions.

Its sort of why I say without restrictions it’s a terrible experience (like this summer at times) where you go on vacation and can’t ski, can’t eat out, etc because of the broader capacity restrictions.  And I think we’ll see that too.  Frustrations among the public that they are being capped out of doing what they want.

Things are being planned to operate at a very low number of visitors relative to normal.  Just look at the Keystone images.  They capped skier visits low to make a very controlled environment.

Something will have to give if this continues. The ski resorts can try to absorb a bad season and put on a brave face, but if guest numbers remain low, ticket prices will need to rise to compensate. That's just basic business math.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Something will have to give if this continues. The ski resorts can try to absorb a bad season and put on a brave face, but if guest numbers remain low, ticket prices will need to rise to compensate. That's just basic business math.

Oh they already have.  Most of the independents have drastically raised their season pass price up here.  And day ticket prices will go up to match the out of whack supply/demand.  Very high demand, low capacity to country club level... gets you country club prices eventually.

Cost savings wise though there’s less staff for sure to handle less guests.  They’ll cut some costs as well, fridge amenities that lost money.  Maybe you don’t make enough snow to last till June.  You dust and run, vs building 15 foot depths.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Something will have to give if this continues. The ski resorts can try to absorb a bad season and put on a brave face, but if guest numbers remain low, ticket prices will need to rise to compensate. That's just basic business math.

I'm hoping this will cause more people to go to some of the smaller mountains. Some of those places are nearly empty during week days, but perhaps they can pick up some extra business because larger resorts are capped. Hopefully that helps offset at least some of the losses they are going to have on the weekend.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Something will have to give if this continues. The ski resorts can try to absorb a bad season and put on a brave face, but if guest numbers remain low, ticket prices will need to rise to compensate. That's just basic business math.

To make up for money lost in concessions at the lodges they would probably need to double ticket prices to get back to normal baseline.

However, if they did that, say goodbye to day skiers,  it would be season pass holders only.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Oh they already have.  Most of the independents have drastically raised their season pass price up here.  And day ticket prices will go up to match the out of whack supply/demand.  Very high demand, low capacity to country club level... gets you country club prices eventually.

OK, I get what you mean with the "country club experience" statement. That's fine for folks like me, I'm sure. I often pay extra for primo experiences and fewer crowds. Many others won't be able or willing to do that, however.

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

That's a shame. The fear some parents have over the virus is trickling down to their kids and messing them up.

The wife is currently getting her PHD in the medical field, and her brother works for Moderna so there is they are pretty tied into all things, virus related.  She seems more hardcore than he does, but I fear that the whole thing will take its toll on the kid in some form.  Facetime meetings, and one 3 hour visit this summer, but that has been about it as far as communication between my girlfriend and her nephew. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh they already have.  Most of the independents have drastically raised their season pass price up here.  And day ticket prices will go up to match the out of whack supply/demand.  Very high demand, low capacity to country club level... gets you country club prices eventually.

It’s all a losing proposition in h the end.  Eventually you would just have the 5 or 6 big resort mountains as exclusive clubs and everyone else closed. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

OK, I get what you mean with the "country club experience" statement. That's fine for folks like me, I'm sure. I often pay extra for primo experiences and fewer crowds. Many others won't be able or willing to do that, however.

Yeah I mean that seemed to be the jive I got from people who posted about Keystone, CO opening last weekend.  Usually it’s a mad house on opening weekend, but articles written about it gave the impression that many enjoyed that low-key empty experience to the total gong-show that it normally is (if you got a reservation for it).

Like they’d rather wait 15 min for a wide open table and plenty of space in a lodge as opposed to the old first come first serve people crawling over others to get to their stuff experience.  They also said the slopes were much more empty and felt safer than having thousands of folks bombing down.

I think the ski industry might learn or change some things too from this... but the frugal skier usually loses in that case. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s all a losing proposition in h the end.  Eventually you would just have the 5 or 6 big resort mountains as exclusive clubs and everyone else closed. 

Yeah.  Like a Bolton Valley only pass right now (with holiday blackouts too) would cost you $762.

Thats not that different than an Epic or IKON pass for tons of resorts.

[radarman]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is what lodges will look like.  Very empty.  With a line outside.

These are from a travel writer who was at Keystone last weekend.  This was the size of the crowd that Vail Resorts restricted via reservation system.

Very, very controlled environment.  Many people agreed even after COVID it should be like this, private country club style.

This isn’t because the demand isn’t there, they curtailed supply drastically to allow for a very crowd free environment.

[Lava Rock]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I may be completely out to lunch and I’m not saying the ski areas won’t struggle financially... but I don’t think it’s because of traveler restrictions.

The ski areas are planning to take maybe 50% or even less of their normal visitors just as a COVID precaution as it is.  I bet it’ll be even less given lift capacity of only like parties riding together, capacity of lodges (say 1 person for every 200 square feet including staff), etc.

I still think the public is thinking ski area business should be normal all else considered... but these places are planning, staffing, etc for only allowing less than 50% of normal visitations regardless of travel restrictions.

Its sort of why I say without restrictions it’s a terrible experience (like this summer at times) where you go on vacation and can’t ski, can’t eat out, etc because of the broader capacity restrictions.  And I think we’ll see that too.  Frustrations among the public that they are being capped out of doing what they want.

Things are being planned to operate at a very low number of visitors relative to normal.  Just look at the Keystone images.  They capped skier visits low to make a very controlled environment.

Regarding limiting the # of daily skiers. Are places in VT, NH, ME going to do the same where they will only let so many on the mtn? Will you need to make a reservation and will season pass holders be given priority over day trippers? We've got our annual SR trip planned for Feb and will pick up a few other day trips throughout the season, but it's looking more like a PITA to make it worthwhile. I see lots more snowmobiling this season