Fall Banter and General Discussion

[MarkO]

Might as well watch the temp drop and radar flip: 

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=39.47&lon=-105.95&zoom=11&type=hybrid&units=english

[powderfreak]

This graphic out of CBS in Denver is like some Game of Thrones world.

Way up NW will be freezing cold, then we will have land of fire, then winter snow, then more fire...

[wxeyeNH]

16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Pretty crazy satellite of the fires in Cali...that’s when the lack of rain gets real in a hurry.

Interesting picture.  This one was taken from a jet.  At first it seemed odd the pyrocumulous didn't match up to the fire but this shows the same thing.  Probably the same anvil and fire.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Hey heads up to Connecticut peeps my vet said that Fairfield County has reported the presence of Gulf Coast Ticks for the first time. They can carry spotted fever and some nasty canine diseases.

[MarkO]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hey heads up to Connecticut peeps my vet said that Fairfield County has reported the presence of Gulf Coast Ticks for the first time. They can carry spotted fever and some nasty canine diseases.

Great, another virus/bacteria we need to worry about. 

On a happier note, I'm seeing first flakes fly at Breckenridge. Bring on winter!

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hey heads up to Connecticut peeps my vet said that Fairfield County has reported the presence of Gulf Coast Ticks for the first time. They can carry spotted fever and some nasty canine diseases.

We try not to let our dog in the woods too much (she did hike up the hill with us yesterday though).  We haven't seen much tick activity so far.  Dry summers will help with that I guess.

There should be an uptick (no pun intended) as we get into cooler and damper months.

I hate ticks.  I don't remember them being as big an issue when I was a kid, although Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever existed and a family member got Lyme in the early 1980s

[Lava Rock]

54 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thought you’d enjoy this @STILL N OF PIKE. A 115 ft wave sounds awesome from afar. 

 

Don't they tow them to the top of the wave?

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thought you’d enjoy this @STILL N OF PIKE. A 115 ft wave sounds awesome from afar. 

 

 

29 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Don't they tow them to the top of the wave?

Waves that big, they do get towed into.  That is an extremely dangerous surfing spot.  I watched a show and they featured that location.  What makes it so special is the underwater canyon that extends like 30-40mi offshore and the water is allowed to funnel into that spot creating these monstrous waves.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Congrats Sturgis Bikers.  You got the award for the largest super-spreader evenet thus far.  267K cases.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6651879-Researchers-Sturgis-Motorcycle-Rally-a-superspreader-event-linked-to-267K-COVID-19-cases

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2020/09/08/sturgis-was-a-super-spreader-event-with-a-billion-dollar-health-cost

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Market is barely bouncing  off 50 day moving averages after significant 3 day fall  . 

Time for the fed  and banks to call “ congress “ into closed door session and explain this System is as fragile as Wylie Coyote regarding current asset values and their  importance regarding systematic solvency . They are worried about making interest payments 10 years down road instead of hitting brakes as car is speeding toward a cliff .

[DavisStraight]

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We try not to let our dog in the woods too much (she did hike up the hill with us yesterday though).  We haven't seen much tick activity so far.  Dry summers will help with that I guess.

There should be an uptick (no pun intended) as we get into cooler and damper months.

I hate ticks.  I don't remember them being as big an issue when I was a kid, although Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever existed and a family member got Lyme in the early 1980s

Put a Seresto collar on your dogs, been doing it for three years and no ticks.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Congrats Sturgis Bikers.  You got the award for the largest super-spreader evenet thus far.  267K cases.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6651879-Researchers-Sturgis-Motorcycle-Rally-a-superspreader-event-linked-to-267K-COVID-19-cases

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2020/09/08/sturgis-was-a-super-spreader-event-with-a-billion-dollar-health-cost

Non peer reviewed done by economic people.  Its all based on assumptions. Hard sell

[Lava Rock]

35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Market is barely bouncing  off 50 day moving averages after significant 3 day fall  . 

Time for the fed  and banks to call “ congress “ into closed door session and explain this System is as fragile as Wylie Coyote regarding current asset values and their  importance regarding systematic solvency . They are worried about making interest payments 10 years down road instead of hitting brakes as car is speeding toward a cliff .

We almost invested a bunch into some ETFs last week, tech ones included. Glad we didn't. Probably best to wait till after the elections.

[wxeyeNH]

Fires just exploding in California today.  Towering pyrocumulonimbos creating shadowing.  Wonder if it's raining ash downstream?

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Non peer reviewed done by economic people.  Its all based on assumptions. Hard sell

Any modeling is based on a decent amount of assumptions of behavior, from climate to health to economic models, so definitely use caution in any of those.  It’s just another preliminary study that will evolve over time as it gets reviewed. The problem is it’s just such a sensitive topic right now that it’s almost impossible for anyone to read it in a truly objectively, IMO.

At least it’s weather relevant factoring in temperature and precip to estimate indoor vs outdoor traffic .

Ygcst=β +β Sturgis +β Temp +β Precip + β 'Xst+α +τt +εgct

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Congrats Sturgis Bikers.  You got the award for the largest super-spreader evenet thus far.  267K cases.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6651879-Researchers-Sturgis-Motorcycle-Rally-a-superspreader-event-linked-to-267K-COVID-19-cases

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2020/09/08/sturgis-was-a-super-spreader-event-with-a-billion-dollar-health-cost

I'm not buying that study from a bunch of economists.

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Congrats Sturgis Bikers.  You got the award for the largest super-spreader evenet thus far.  267K cases.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6651879-Researchers-Sturgis-Motorcycle-Rally-a-superspreader-event-linked-to-267K-COVID-19-cases

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2020/09/08/sturgis-was-a-super-spreader-event-with-a-billion-dollar-health-cost

Given how bad the US is at contract tracing, color me skeptical at the veracity of this study.

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Given how bad the US is at contract tracing, color me skeptical at the veracity of this study.

It’s like modeling how much money in American health care costs are a result of the fast food industry...maybe this number?  Maybe that number?  Who knows?

But the headline will be good: “Study finds the Fast Food Industry responsible for $100 billion in health care costs and accelerated the deaths of X number of Americans annually.”

Modeling costs of negative externalities Is tough.

[NorEastermass128]

23 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Save this link for tomorrow. 
 

 

Bump. Enjoy!

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Non peer reviewed done by economic people.  Its all based on assumptions. Hard sell

Yeah. I’m very skeptical of that study.  I’m sure it’s tentacles are reaching pretty deeply but some of the figures I’ve read seem high    But then again, the Biogen conference with just 150 or so people is thought to have lead to 20k cases.   A much longer time period 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It took until September 8th... but we finally got our first W as a society in 2020. Keeping up with the Kardashians was finally cancelled after 20 hellish seasons.

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Bump. Enjoy!

26F with steady snow falling... Chamber of Commerce day in September for ski country, ha.  Even snow blowing off the roof into the camera view, looks like dry powder.

[Lava Rock]

Bump. Enjoy!

Less than forecast? I saw up to 14" in favored areas.

[powderfreak]

Casper, Wyoming.  Not bad for September 8th.

 

[dryslot]

59 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I’m very skeptical of that study.  I’m sure it’s tentacles are reaching pretty deeply but some of the figures I’ve read seem high    But then again, the Biogen conference with just 150 or so people is thought to have lead to 20k cases.   A much longer time period 

But not one Protester, Looter or Rioter had covid....... {snicker}

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

But not one Protester, Looter or Rioter had covid....... {snicker}

I think the concern at Sturgis was the bars...indoors, no masks, no distancing.     I don't think the outdoor stuff there was a big spreader (my opinion only)   It will take a long time to determine whether this really had a big impact.   I think some to be sure, but I doubt the 250,000 or so these guys are attributing to it.   

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think the concern at Sturgis was the bars...indoors, no masks, no distancing.     I don't think the outdoor stuff there was a big spreader (my opinion only)   It will take a long time to determine whether this really had a big impact.   I think some to be sure, but I doubt the 250,000 or so these guys are attributing to it.   

I remember when scientists actually waited for peer review before promoting articles.  Out the window I guess judging on the scientists who retweeted the story

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think the concern at Sturgis was the bars...indoors, no masks, no distancing.     I don't think the outdoor stuff there was a big spreader (my opinion only)   It will take a long time to determine whether this really had a big impact.   I think some to be sure, but I doubt the 250,000 or so these guys are attributing to it.   

I don't buy it.

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think the concern at Sturgis was the bars...indoors, no masks, no distancing.     I don't think the outdoor stuff there was a big spreader (my opinion only)   It will take a long time to determine whether this really had a big impact.   I think some to be sure, but I doubt the 250,000 or so these guys are attributing to it.   

Yeah it would be from the bars and indoor stuff if it’s there.  The outdoor stuff is a hard sell.  Close proximity, indoors, no masks, I mean we saw what that one wedding in Maine did recently.  The party at Killington recently.  If it happens, it happens indoors.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

We almost invested a bunch into some ETFs last week, tech ones included. Glad we didn't. Probably best to wait till after the elections.

Just best to wait till they go significantly below 2000 tech bubble valuations regardless