Fall Banter and General Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

Amazing day for yard cleanup.  Did oak leaves today.  Looks like 2/3 to 3/4 are off the trees, so likely one more time to blow them and then having to deal with leaves from adjacent properties blowing in.  Got to use new ladder as well to get up to gutters.  Nice to finally have a quality stable ladder that I don’t fell like I’m going to die climbing up.  Grass is done growing as well but is nice and green still.  Best it’s looked since June.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Amazing day for yard cleanup.  Did oak leaves today.  Looks like 2/3 to 3/4 are off the trees, so likely one more time to blow them and then having to deal with leaves from adjacent properties blowing in.  Got to use new ladder as well to get up to gutters.  Nice to finally have a quality stable ladder that I don’t fell like I’m going to die climbing up.  Grass is done growing as well but is nice and green still.  Best it’s looked since June.

We done. All Oaks bare since last Sunday derecho.  Only the ones that hang on all winter left. Stein allowed 1-2 weeks earlier than normal final cleanup.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Nice day, nice evening.  Had friends over for some grilling and now I’m enjoying some quiet time in the yard.

[CoastalWx]

Leaves are pretty much down except for the typical stragglers. Brother in laws helped do cleanup since I can’t. Earliest cleanup since I’ve been here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Leaves are pretty much down except for the typical stragglers. Brother in laws helped do cleanup since I can’t. Earliest cleanup since I’ve been here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nice day, nice evening.  Had friends over for some grilling and now I’m enjoying some quiet time in the yard.

We hit up 12% today in North Haven. Just great beer after beer . Fantastic concept. Renting the barrels to brewers nationwide . They had one today from Tulsa 

[MegaMike]

Hey guys,

I wanted to ask, would you change the formatting of the attached snowfall () map? If there's anything that you'd add, remove, or edit, please let me know. I'm prepared to batch over 200 other snowfall interpolations (1900-now) that I created using GHCND/PNS observations and Python's PyKrige library (https://pypi.org/project/PyKrige/). I'd like to keep a gridded historical archive for other purposes as well. For example, I'd like to

1) create plots for the number of occurrences of 4+,10+,etc... events (on a 0.025x0.025 degree grid) ...and...

2) determine the maximum snowfall amount and index the event for all locations (on a 0.025x0.025 degree grid)

This isn't work that I plan on publishing since there are other agencies with similar and likely, more accurate plots (NWS offices, https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall_v2/, and https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis). I created these interpolations to conduct an analysis on a constant grid. I'll admit, I did it for fun too! I may also create a large poster of all plots altogether . 

Anyways, I decided not to plot the legend. The plot's elements are:

shaded circles: GHCND/PNS (I added PNS observations when/where applicable) observations.

shaded crosses: GHCND/PNS observations that were determined to be spatial outliers... I found outliers using a methodology similar to this one < https://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/spatial-statistics/h-how-cluster-and-outlier-analysis-anselin-local-m.htm > using a 50km search radius, IDW weights to the 2nd power, and z-scores of -1.280 and 4 (assuming a normal distribution).

shaded: Kriging interpolation onto a 0.025x0.025 degree grid

light blue shade: Lakes (from https://scitools.org.uk/cartopy/docs/v0.14/matplotlib/feature_interface.html)

dark blue shade: Atlantic (from https://scitools.org.uk/cartopy/docs/v0.14/matplotlib/feature_interface.html)

gray segments: Interstates

I also added shapefiles for Canada's provinces, USA's states, and USA's counties.

Ideally, the observations should match the color of the shaded interpolation.

 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We hit up 12% today in North Haven. Just great beer after beer . Fantastic concept. Renting the barrels to brewers nationwide . They had one today from Tulsa 

That’s a great idea.  So they rent their barrels to brewers from elsewhere to add variety?  I’m surprised someone hasn’t done that fully... just an entire brewery brewing other people’s beers from around the US, or even internationally.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s a great idea.  So they rent their barrels to brewers from elsewhere to add variety?  I’m surprised someone hasn’t done that fully... just an entire brewery brewing other people’s beers from around the US, or even internationally.

That’s exactly what they do. And it’s all breweries that basically score 4 or higher on Untappd. It also allows brewers from other areas of country to get their beers/ names known up here in IPA capital of the country in New England. They can for them as well.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

New England all quarantined up now with today’s Mass update removing NH and ME from the safe list.

From Boston.com:

Massachusetts residents planning to visit family in New Hampshire and Maine this Thanksgiving will be required to quarantine for two weeks or have proof of a negative COVID-19 test upon their return, according to the latest change of the state’s out-of-state travel rules — and the same goes for visitors from two those states coming here for the holiday.

As local officials urge residents against traveling at all for Thanksgiving amid the surge in coronavirus cases this fall, a spokesperson for the state’s COVID-19 Command Center told Boston.com that Massachusetts will remove New Hampshire and Maine from its list of lower-risk states effective Saturday.

That means individuals visiting or returning from those states are now required to self-quarantine for 14 days or have proof of a negative COVID-19 test from within the prior 72 hours upon arriving in Massachusetts. Failure to comply may result in a $500 fine per day.
 

 

This quarantine business is a little silly at this point.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s exactly what they do. And it’s all breweries that basically score 4 or higher on Untappd. It also allows brewers from other areas of country to get their beers/ names known up here in IPA capital of the country in New England. They can for them as well.

Fantastic business plan right there, IMO.  Thanks for the intel. 

[powderfreak]

37 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Looks awesome.  Well done on the map, wouldn't change a thing... and what an event for the ALB area, lol.  Those type of two footers don't grow on trees in the Capital District.

[ORH_wxman]

38 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Hey guys,

I wanted to ask, would you change the formatting of the attached snowfall () map? If there's anything that you'd add, remove, or edit, please let me know. I'm prepared to batch over 200 other snowfall interpolations (1900-now) that I created using GHCND/PNS observations and Python's PyKrige library (https://pypi.org/project/PyKrige/). I'd like to keep a gridded historical archive for other purposes as well. For example, I'd like to

1) create plots for the number of occurrences of 4+,10+,etc... events (on a 0.025x0.025 degree grid) ...and...

2) determine the maximum snowfall amount and index the event for all locations (on a 0.025x0.025 degree grid)

This isn't work that I plan on publishing since there are other agencies with similar and likely, more accurate plots (NWS offices, https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall_v2/, and https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis). I created these interpolations to conduct an analysis on a constant grid. I'll admit, I did it for fun too! I may also create a large poster of all plots altogether . 

Anyways, I decided not to plot the legend. The plot's elements are:

shaded circles: GHCND/PNS (I added PNS observations when/where applicable) observations.

shaded crosses: GHCND/PNS observations that were determined to be spatial outliers... I found outliers using a methodology similar to this one < https://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/spatial-statistics/h-how-cluster-and-outlier-analysis-anselin-local-m.htm > using a 50km search radius, IDW weights to the 2nd power, and z-scores of -1.280 and 4 (assuming a normal distribution).

shaded: Kriging interpolation onto a 0.025x0.025 degree grid

light blue shade: Lakes (from https://scitools.org.uk/cartopy/docs/v0.14/matplotlib/feature_interface.html)

dark blue shade: Atlantic (from https://scitools.org.uk/cartopy/docs/v0.14/matplotlib/feature_interface.html)

gray segments: Interstates

I also added shapefiles for Canada's provinces, USA's states, and USA's counties.

Ideally, the observations should match the color of the shaded interpolation.

 

This is pretty nice. One thing I personally like is seeing a few number values plotted on the actual map but not sure if that’s too difficult if you have so many obs. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We hit up 12% today in North Haven. Just great beer after beer . Fantastic concept. Renting the barrels to brewers nationwide . They had one today from Tulsa 

Huh, this place is like a mile up the road from me and I've never heard of it. Is it good?

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Amazing day for yard cleanup.  Did oak leaves today.  Looks like 2/3 to 3/4 are off the trees, so likely one more time to blow them and then having to deal with leaves from adjacent properties blowing in.  Got to use new ladder as well to get up to gutters.  Nice to finally have a quality stable ladder that I don’t fell like I’m going to die climbing up.  Grass is done growing as well but is nice and green still.  Best it’s looked since June.

I did Maple and Burning Bush leaves, I'm wiped. Ill be sleeping before Kevin tonight.

[MegaMike]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is pretty nice. One thing I personally like is seeing a few number values plotted on the actual map but not sure if that’s too difficult if you have so many obs. 

Thanks!

I tried to superimpose the observations onto the map, but it caused too much clutter. It was impossible to view numeric observations clearly. That's why I chose to use a color scale for the symbology instead. I can add the text, but I'd have to focus on smaller territories as you mention.

Is there a place I can store these plots somewhere in the forum (maybe a new thread)? I have 208 other plots I'd like to upload once the script finishes.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

This place is like a mile up the road from me and I've never heard of it? Is it good?

Are you drunk? Get there ASAP

[Hoth]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you drunk? Get there ASAP

Sweet. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Thanks!

I tried to superimpose the observations onto the map, but it caused too much clutter. It was impossible to view numeric observations clearly. That's why I chose to use a color scale for the symbology instead. I can add the text, but I'd have to focus on smaller territories as you mention.

Is there a place I can store these plots somewhere in the forum (maybe a new thread)? I have 208 other plots I'd like to upload once the script finishes.

Yeah feel free to start a new thread for it. Prob the easiest way. 

Maybe @dendrite can chime in. 

[Ginx snewx]

On 11/20/2020 at 8:45 PM, powderfreak said:

Hey @Ginx snewx, hope all went well with the back surgery today dude.

Thanks hopefully get out of this Petri dish tomorrow. 

[MegaMike]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah feel free to start a new thread for it. Prob the easiest way. 

Maybe @dendrite can chime in. 

Great! Thanks, Will!

dendrite, you can PM me.

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah feel free to start a new thread for it. Prob the easiest way. 

Maybe @dendrite can chime in. 

A new thread with maps like that of 200 past snowstorms?!  Sounds awesome.  A one-stop shop for history.

[MegaMike]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A new thread with maps like that of 200 past snowstorms?!  Sounds awesome.  A one-stop shop for history.

Good to hear!

I ran the interpolation for all events listed here < https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/societal-impacts > for the NE US. So there are 211 in total. I'm iterating from highest to smallest RSI (the sum of area/population impacted by climatological snowfall thresholds). At the moment, I have 19930312_19930315, 19960106_19960109, 19780204_19780208, and 19690222_19690228. I'm hoping I'll get some feedback for the interpolations (such as additional observations or ideas... The 4 Seasons!!!). I fully expect to redo some of these images to make them more accurate for my ultimate analysis. I'm surprised how detailed the GHCND archive is though. There's plenty of observations since 1900 for our area. Northwest Maine was the only exception so I had to be creative for that region. 

I could look at other historical events too. I just need the start and end dates (even dating back to 1900).

Here are the final images I'll post until the other images process and I decide where to put them.

[Whineminster]

23 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Sounds pretty sweet. I doubt anyone will hassle you there. It's not like you are going to VT after all. LOL

I'm not worried about that.... It's my work that makes me tell them where I'm going any time I take time off or go anywhere out of state

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I'm not worried about that.... It's my work that makes me tell them where I'm going any time I take time off or go anywhere out of state

It’s funny because in that area you would be less likely to get the ‘vid than in the dirty ‘burg

[PhineasC]

22 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

 

 

 

 

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I'm not worried about that.... It's my work that makes me tell them where I'm going any time I take time off or go anywhere out of state

Damn, you work for some Nazis?

[mreaves]

41 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 

That 1969 storm is dryslot’s winter avatar. 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That 1969 storm is dryslot’s winter avatar. 

I am really hoping for a monster bombing storm blowing up in the Gulf of Maine while my temps are in the low 20s. Is that so much to ask for? Enough of this weak-ass sheared crap we keep getting

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

 

Late bloomers FTW up here.