Fall Banter and General Discussion

[WhitinsvilleWX]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

what is the Ct #?

A lot of the SOP’s say anything less than 40! Some are set at 37. 
it should be at least 34 and more realistically 32. 
 

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I think you guys are way too optimistic on when the restrictions go away. If I had to bet it in Vegas, I’d take spring 2022 for the win, Alex. (RIP)

I agree. mid to Late 2021 was always looked at as a long shot.

Edit: I am talking total normalcy.  We may have concerts and events, but mask wearing will be commonplace next year. 

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I think you guys are way too optimistic on when the restrictions go away. If I had to bet it in Vegas, I’d take spring 2022 for the win, Alex. (RIP)

No way. People aren't going to tolerate this for much longer. Plus case load should drop quickly by late Spring 2021 with vax rollout.

[OSUmetstud]

Everything I've read from folks like Mina about the testing is that the high cycle threshold value for the RT PCR is fine for confirmatory medical diagnosis (covid symptoms and pcr positive) but it has little value for finding infectious people in the community. We tend to find people way too late in the illness for it to be all that useful for contract tracing. As far as I understand people who have a positive PCR are typically not false positives since they very often seroconvert (greater than 90%). 

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

A lot of the SOP’s say anything less than 40! Some are set at 37. 
it should be at least 34 and more realistically 32. 
 

lol, that certainly is way too high. 32 is what I was used to when running PCR/RTPCR.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

No way. People aren't going to tolerate this for much longer. Plus case load should drop quickly by late Spring 2021 with vax rollout.

Yeah it's hard for me to envision people going along with status quo restrictions into summer 2021 when the weather gets nice again.....assuming we have a working vaccine that's been widely available for a couple months at that point.

I think that's the main mitigating factor....if we'll have enough vaccine availability throughout spring 2021. Hopefully we do.

[Juliancolton]

One reassuring thing is that the stakes are just as high for big pharma as they are for everyone else, if not higher. If there's even a shadow of an issue with one of the vaccines, you know competitors will put it on full blast. There's no cutting corners or sweeping things under the rug when multiple players are at comparable stages in the process and desperate for any chance to get a leg up. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's hard for me to envision people going along with status quo restrictions into summer 2021 when the weather gets nice again.....assuming we have a working vaccine that's been widely available for a couple months at that point.

I think that's the main mitigating factor....if we'll have enough vaccine availability throughout spring 2021. Hopefully we do.

what remains of the restaurant industry by spring won't be able to handle it any longer....

[correnjim1]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

No way. People aren't going to tolerate this for much longer. Plus case load should drop quickly by late Spring 2021 with vax rollout.

and what can people do?....they will threaten people with fines, with jail time, and have you fired from your job

[WhitinsvilleWX]

We’ll be wearing these face diapers for another 12-18 months at least. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Everything I've read from folks like Mina about the testing is that the high cycle threshold value for the RT PCR is fine for confirmatory medical diagnosis (covid symptoms and pcr positive) but it has little value for finding infectious people in the community. We tend to find people way too late in the illness for it to be all that useful for contract tracing. As far as I understand people who have a positive PCR are typically not false positives since they very often seroconvert (greater than 90%). 

It’s too high. We’re calling people positive who never even had enough load to infect themselves much less anyone else. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

We’ll be wearing these face diapers for another 12-18 months at least. 

the masks could last awhile for sure-it will move from "mandatory" to "recommended"

[bch2014]

If the most vulnerable are vaccinated by February, shouldn’t we see the hospitalization and death rate go down by quite a bit, making the need for draconian measures less?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think there will still be some restrictions through much of 2021 like masks and large capacity/density venues, but the things that truly harm the economy (especially small businesses) will be hard to keep in place next summer and fall if the vaccine is widely available. 

Which really isn't defensible if a vaccine is widely available by spring. If it is not widely available until next fall, then yeah.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

We’ll be wearing these face diapers for another 12-18 months at least. 

 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, WhitinsvilleWX said:

It’s too high. We’re calling people positive who never even had enough load to infect themselves much less anyone else. 

I'm not sure thats true. Those positives often seroconvert so they were infected. Were just catching them on the long RNA fragment tail. 

Between March 26 and April 10, 2020, we measured SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres in 1343 people. Of the 624 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who had serologies done after 4 weeks, all but three seroconverted to the SARS-CoV-2 spike

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30120-8/fulltext

[Cold Miser]

18 minutes ago, correnjim1 said:

and what can people do?....they will threaten people with fines, with jail time, and have you fired from your job

Well, if you live in Boston and next week decide to have Thanksgiving with more than the legal amount of people, the police may be called to your residence.   Nothing like clogging up the 911 infrastructure to report on too many people dipping into the gravy.
...This will easily bleed into Christmas and New Year's as well, where I think lockdowns will ultimately be in place by then in some regions.

Good ole' Marty Walsh:

"We don't want to do this, but as the holidays go on, people are going to call 911," Walsh said, adding that police would show up and notify the city's Inspectional Services Department, which will issue fines."

https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2020/11/17/watch-live-mayor-walsh-to-give-coronavirus-update

[WhitinsvilleWX]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

He’s my hero. That’s why I couldn’t continue in oncology. I wasn’t compassionate enough. I trained as a pathologist. My patients didn’t complain and I enjoyed the solitude of staring into a microscope all day. 

[correnjim1]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

Well, if you live in Boston and next week decide to have Thanksgiving with more than the legal amount of people, the police may be called to your residence.   Nothing like clogging up the 911 infrastructure to report on too many people dipping into the gravy.
...This will easily bleed into Christmas and New Year's as well, where I think lockdowns will ultimately be in place by then in some regions.

Good ole' Marty Walsh:

 

i work for boston 911 i'll say right now the police won't respond.....the old sorry no available units for a low priority we'll send the next available unit....take about two hours

[WhitinsvilleWX]

18 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'm not sure thats true. Those positives often seroconvert so they were infected. Were just catching them on the long RNA fragment tail. 

Between March 26 and April 10, 2020, we measured SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres in 1343 people. Of the 624 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who had serologies done after 4 weeks, all but three seroconverted to the SARS-CoV-2 spike

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30120-8/fulltext

Somewhat. But we’re calling far too many positives who aren’t infectious. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Somewhat. But we’re calling far too many positives who aren’t infectious. 

Agreed. 

[CoastalWx]

Question. If you have a test within 72 hrs of whatever you need to do and it comes back negative, don’t you negate it if you spend the next 72 hrs doing risky activities?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, correnjim1 said:

i work for boston 911 i'll say right now the police won't respond.....the old sorry no available units for a low priority we'll send the next available unit....take about two hours

I am friends with several officers in Greenfield and the surrounding towns and all of them have told me they are not enforcing masks in public. They will only respond to Store’s reporting disruptive customers. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, correnjim1 said:

i work for boston 911 i'll say right now the police won't respond.....the old sorry no available units for a low priority we'll send the next available unit....take about two hours

They shouldn’t unless it’s a rave. Boston has enough going on. 

[Lava Rock]

33 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

It’s too high. We’re calling people positive who never even had enough load to infect themselves much less anyone else. 

then why was it setup that way? Who decided the threshold limit had to be that high if what you say is correct about viral loads and transmission?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'm not sure thats true. Those positives often seroconvert so they were infected. Were just catching them on the long RNA fragment tail. 

Between March 26 and April 10, 2020, we measured SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres in 1343 people. Of the 624 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who had serologies done after 4 weeks, all but three seroconverted to the SARS-CoV-2 spike

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30120-8/fulltext

This will go over like a lead balloon 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Question. If you have a test within 72 hrs of whatever you need to do and it comes back negative, don’t you negate it if you spend the next 72 hrs doing risky activities?

Get in your bubble and stay there.

[radarman]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am friends with several officers in Greenfield and the surrounding towns and all of them have told me they are not enforcing masks in public. They will only respond to Store’s reporting disruptive customers. 

I have to say that compliance is damn close to 100% everywhere around here.  I can't recall the last time I've been inside in a public place and seen somebody not wearing a mask.

[Lava Rock]

17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Well, if you live in Boston and next week decide to have Thanksgiving with more than the legal amount of people, the police may be called to your residence.   Nothing like clogging up the 911 infrastructure to report on too many people dipping into the gravy.
...This will easily bleed into Christmas and New Year's as well, where I think lockdowns will ultimately be in place by then in some regions.

Good ole' Marty Walsh:

 

Neighbors will all be spying on other neighbors ready to dial EMS. what a sad joke this is

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

then why was it setup that way? Who decided the threshold limit had to be that high if what you say is correct about viral loads and transmission?

I think they were setup for clinical sensitivity not for community survaillance. Its why there's been an investment into the antigen testing which would be better for that. Lower sensitivity but higher percentage of positives would actually be infectious.