Fall Banter and General Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Talking about a burgeoning PV pig is 

Slap a mask on the piggie and ride it out the pole!

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Very good points. Along with masks, I wish the message would get back to washing your hands and not touching your face. I think over the last few months those 2 points have been lost in all of this 

Toward the beginning of the pandemic in the US, we saw a clip of  people at work desks, one with no advice about touching and the other asked to try avoid touching the face.  The 2nd had fewer touches than the 1st, but still more than a dozen per hour.  Instinctive.

Mask use at the Farmington branch of U.Maine is essentially total among students walking around campus.  During our trip to Oquossuc Bald Mountain last week we saw very few with masks among the 40 or so others on the trail.  We put on the masks when at the parking lot but not during the hike.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let's talk about Turducken and Thanksgiving.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

25 minutes ago, radarman said:

All this soap and hand sanitizer... we need lanolin dispensers or something heading into winter...

Bag Balm

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Slap a mask on the piggie and ride it out the pole!

We Covid 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They had a PR presser to goose prices and then did a stock offering I believe .

We should hope the Peer Review as the details of the phase 3 data comes out ..is still very favorable 

Short-lived excitement about the vaccine.  Moderna was basically a one day bump this week, and then people took profits and ran. Lots of pre-market excitement yesterday to get the Robin Hood noobs to take the bait at the bell. 

Traders were not excited about the vaccine they were excited to take their 8% profit.  
So predictable.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

13 hours ago, PhineasC said:

We need to get back to the original concept of flatten the curve. The focus should be on making sure the hospitals don't become overwhelmed. That is how Fauci and gang sold everyone on the lockdowns in the first place. I'm serious that at some point the narrative for a lot of Americans morphed into "we can take certain actions such as mask wearing and social distancing to just avoid COVID entirely," which is silly and never what any legit expert said. I'm not sure how this all got twisted, perhaps it was inevitable given what is happening on the political side of things. Either way, you now have people that have been following the supposed silver bullet formula for dodging COVID who are still getting it anyway, and that will cause a lot more people to come to the conclusion that the rules are all pretty useless and throw the baby out with the bathwater. The messaging on COVID is totally messed up now. People are obsessed with cases and have totally lost the forest for the trees at this point. We need a total reset and restart on COVID messaging across the board, IMO.

 

^^ this. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Toward the beginning of the pandemic in the US, we saw a clip of  people at work desks, one with no advice about touching and the other asked to try avoid touching the face.  The 2nd had fewer touches than the 1st, but still more than a dozen per hour.  Instinctive.

Mask use at the Farmington branch of U.Maine is essentially total among students walking around campus.  During our trip to Oquossuc Bald Mountain last week we saw very few with masks among the 40 or so others on the trail.  We put on the masks when at the parking lot but not during the hike.

But didn't Mills say any vigorous outdoor activity requires a mask? Someone claims that's what the mandate says, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Regardless, I won't mask up outside unless in  or near crowd

[Lava Rock]

55 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Short-lived excitement about the vaccine.  Moderna was basically a one day bump this week, and then people took profits and ran. Lots of pre-market excitement yesterday to get the Robin Hood noobs to take the bait at the bell. 

Traders were not excited about the vaccine they were excited to take their 8% profit.  
So predictable.

Saw that coming. Same with PFZ/BNTE

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Saw that coming. Same with PFZ/BNTE

Yeah, I’d like to invest a little money but I just don’t have time or the stomach for day trading. 

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let's talk about Turducken and Thanksgiving.

 

When Imus was alive and funny he was great 

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

When Imus was alive and funny he was great 

Bernard as the Cardinal was the best

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Bernard as the Cardinal was the best

I miss Bernie McGuirk 

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Bernard as the Cardinal was the best

Top of the mornin' and god bless!

[Cold Miser]

24 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

When Imus was alive and funny he was great 

That Thanksgiving bit was the most unfunny thing I think I've heard in a while.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

55 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Saw that coming. Same with PFZ/BNTE

Modernas success is already baked into share price

TBIO  is a good spot to invest 

So long as the peer review of Pfizer / Moderna coming shortly validates the Messenger RNA platform TBIO is a very good R/R profile And Great investment .

TBIO’s whole platform was based on this new messenger RNA  technology for Many different and future vaccines . This is not a Covid play but Those vaccines efficacy will validate TBIO’s platform . Large Investors already see the Interm phase 3 results as reasons to accumulate TBIO and long time whale investor Seth Klarman owns 25% of TBIO stock. A nice endorsement.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

^^ this. 

But "flatten the curve" isn't a one time thing though right?  Don't you have to keep it flattened until we get to a position where there is combination of better treatment, vaccines and immunity?  It doesn't do any good to flatten the curve for a month or two and then just let it go right?  I would think we have to have some patience to get to that point.

[Cyclone-68]

14 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

That Thanksgiving bit was the most unfunny thing I think I've heard in a while.

It wasn’t my favorite but quite a few of the Bob Bartlett written sketches were hilarious 

 

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Modernas success is already baked into share price

TBIO  is a good spot to invest 

So long as the peer review of Pfizer / Moderna coming shortly validates the Messenger RNA platform TBIO is a very good R/R profile And Great investment .

TBIO’s whole platform was based on this new messenger RNA  technology for Many different and future vaccines . This is not a Covid play but Those vaccines efficacy will validate TBIO’s platform . Large Investors already see the Interm phase 3 results as reasons to accumulate TBIO and long time whale investor Seth Klarman owns 25% of TBIO stock. A nice endorsement.

MRNA's platform is all mRNA too though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Short-lived excitement about the vaccine.  Moderna was basically a one day bump this week, and then people took profits and ran. Lots of pre-market excitement yesterday to get the Robin Hood noobs to take the bait at the bell. 

Traders were not excited about the vaccine they were excited to take their 8% profit.  
So predictable.

Yup. More predictable than a nam clown map showing 48” for Cape Cod MA from a clipper. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

MRNA's platform is all mRNA too though.

Can’t argue that . You are right . It’s just probably gonna plateau for a while as Covid success is priced in.

[bwt3650]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Short-lived excitement about the vaccine.  Moderna was basically a one day bump this week, and then people took profits and ran. Lots of pre-market excitement yesterday to get the Robin Hood noobs to take the bait at the bell. 

Traders were not excited about the vaccine they were excited to take their 8% profit.  
So predictable.

A lot of selling stay at home plays that aren't going anywhere...covid accelerated a lot of these companies, but the shift was going on long before.  Yes, some got ahead of themselves, but why buy a dying trend and sell something that is the future because of vaccine news...Best in breed and the forward looking companies, without knee jerk reactions.  Otherwise, may as well use draft kings...just my two cents.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

But didn't Mills say any vigorous outdoor activity requires a mask? Someone claims that's what the mandate says, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Regardless, I won't mask up outside unless in  or near crowd

The "not limited to" items listed on the proclamation noted parking lots, sporting events, waiting in lines.  The PWM/AUG newspapers' editorials (all written by the same person, I'd guess) inferred that the mandate would apply to a hunter in the woods alone.  Silly - ever try walking thru a fir thicket wearing a mask?  Would need it to be attached by at least duct tape (around back of head) or perhaps something even stronger, to keep it from being ripped off by the brush. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

44 minutes ago, mreaves said:

But "flatten the curve" isn't a one time thing though right?  Don't you have to keep it flattened until we get to a position where there is combination of better treatment, vaccines and immunity?  It doesn't do any good to flatten the curve for a month or two and then just let it go right?  I would think we have to have some patience to get to that point.

It’s a false narrative somewhat. 
The hospitals were never really overwhelmed before. Those “field” hospitals that were set up never really treated many people anyway. ICUs are full because they are designed to be close to capacity to keep people employed. A lot of these smaller hospitals around the country have Covid patients in ICU as an area of isolation, not because they need that level of care. And the death rate has been basically flat since the summer, even if you believe there are 1000 a day dying because of Covid. We’ve been in this increasing spike now for close to 2 months. If there was a relationship between the spike and higher deaths, it would have shown up by now. Like Phin said, somehow all this morphed into stop the cases. That’s never going to stop until it burns out on its own or Pfizer’s witches brew gets to enough people and actually works. But you can’t keep turning the economy and and off like this, or even threatening to. 
In Massachusetts, around 4% of the total beds are populated by Covid cases. And close to half of that are in there with it, not because of it. I wouldn’t call 4% a crisis. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

A lot of selling stay at home plays that aren't going anywhere...covid accelerated a lot of these companies, but the shift was going on long before.  Yes, some got ahead of themselves, but why buy a dying trend and sell something that is the future because of vaccine news...Best in breed and the forward looking companies, without knee jerk reactions.  Otherwise, may as well use draft kings...just my two cents.

Look at Vail Resorts recent movement since Vaccine news (ticker symbol: MTN)  Ditto Hotels and Airlines , those seem to move in line also with a stock like BKNG (Booking . com)  That stock is not a bad one to throw out a few OTM short dated calls or puts ...that has made huge money with its volatility in options just in the last few months as it's a 2000 $ stock. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Look at Vail Resorts recent movement since Vaccine news (ticker symbol: MTN)  Ditto Hotels and Airlines , those seem to move in line also with a stock like BKNG (Booking . com)  That stock is not a bad one to throw out a few OTM short dated calls or puts ...that has made huge money with its volatility in options just in the last few months as it's a 2000 $ stock. 

Budget car rental (CAR) is another one that rises and falls with the news soundbites. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

It’s a false narrative somewhat. 
The hospitals were never really overwhelmed before. Those “field” hospitals that were set up never really treated many people anyway. ICUs are full because they are designed to be close to capacity to keep people employed. A lot of these smaller hospitals around the country have Covid patients in ICU as an area of isolation, not because they need that level of care. And the death rate has been basically flat since the summer, even if you believe there are 1000 a day dying because of Covid. We’ve been in this increasing spike now for close to 2 months. If there was a relationship between the spike and higher deaths, it would have shown up by now. Like Phin said, somehow all this morphed into stop the cases. That’s never going to stop until it burns out on its own or Pfizer’s witches brew gets to enough people and actually works. But you can’t keep turning the economy and and off like this, or even threatening to. 
In Massachusetts, around 4% of the total beds are populated by Covid cases. And close to half of that are in there with it, not because of it. I wouldn’t call 4% a crisis. 

Exactly. I've been tracking the daily case # vs deaths for a few weeks and while there is a small uptick in deaths recently, in comparison to the case # spike in July, the daily death count is pretty stable despite the much higher daily case #'s now. The linear graph really exemplifies the recent case# surge yet daily deaths are still under where they were in April. We'll see what happens after the holidays. 

[bch2014]

 

Density argument debunked.

[Angus]

These rural areas felt Covid couldn't touch them. Not good at all, rural healthcare is a mess to begin with so capacity to treat is restricted to begin with. There was a good article in WSJ (I think) today which profiled a young Doc who was in Boston in April and now in Lubbock, the treatment protocols based upon 6-7 months of experience are very different now. Much better understanding on how to treat.

[Inverted_Trough]

Sweden has basically just admitted their approach during the spring was a failure.  They've now banned any gathering larger than 8 people and are telling people not to go to gyms or restaurants.  These restrictions are much more strict than what they did last spring.

Their original plan was to build up enough 'herd immunity' in the spring so that, when the inevitable 'second wave' grapples the world, Sweden wouldn't really see a second wave.  Guess that didn't work out.  #Fail