Fall Banter and General Discussion

[binbisso]

I also lost an aunt to covid a month ago. My moms sister. My cousin got it from her boyfriend who probably got it at school ( teaches special need kids) and gave it to both her parents. 

[Lava Rock]

26 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That would be my guess.  I know that most of these homes cut everything as close to the bone as possible.  They look at things such as minimum staffing requirements as their baseline, not as the absolute minumum.

I hope I never have to go to a "care" facility. Take me out to the woodshed

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I hope I never have to go to a "care" facility. Take me out to the woodshed

I told the wife to euthanize me like a dog and while that sounds harsh at first...until you realize that (most) dogs are treated better than humans. 

[powderfreak]

57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sorry boys. I am sitting here in my Hospital bed post surgery one thinking about you guys. Tough stuff.

Hope all went well Ginxy.  Best of luck on the other surgery.  

[WhitinsvilleWX]

46 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

 Unknowing and asymptomatic staff bringing it into facilities has always been the major driver imo. 

There is no widespread asymptomatic spread that's driving this. That's a fallacy propagated by a faulty PCR molecular test, or more specifically a faulty interpretation. Even Fauci acknowledged this as far back as July in a virology today conference. From my 20 years experience with RT-PCR and what I've seen, about 40-50% of "positives" are just reading dead nucleotides from people who never had enough viral load to be infected themselves or infect others.

What needs to happen is widespread use of the rapid test. Abbott's test is much better than the early rapid tests. If someone is actually infected to a level that they are contagious to others,  it'll get picked up on a rapid test. Even if it missed a person with a false negative, if you tested enough, you'd catch the false negatives and still limit the spread. This is what Michael Mina at HSPH advocates as well.

The PCR test should be scrapped in favor of the rapid antigen test. If you folks that want to government to do something, that's what they could do. Buy and distribute millions of these tests that could be used daily in certain settings. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sorry boys. I am sitting here in my Hospital bed post surgery one thinking about you guys. Tough stuff.

I hope the surgery went well and gives you back at least some of the stuff you used to enjoy.

[OSUmetstud]

6 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

There is no widespread asymptomatic spread that's driving this. That's a fallacy propagated by a faulty PCR molecular test, or more specifically a faulty interpretation. Even Fauci acknowledged this as far back as July in a virology today conference. From my 20 years experience with RT-PCR and what I've seen, about 40-50% of "positives" are just reading dead nucleotides from people who never had enough viral load to be infected themselves or infect others.

What needs to happen is widespread use of the rapid test. Abbott's test is much better than the early rapid tests. If someone is actually infected to a level that they are contagious to others,  it'll get picked up on a rapid test. Even if it missed a person with a false negative, if you tested enough, you'd catch the false negatives and still limit the spread. This is what Michael Mina at HSPH advocates as well.

The PCR test should be scrapped in favor of the rapid antigen test. If you folks that want to government to do something, that's what they could do. Buy and distribute millions of these tests that could be used daily in certain settings. 

I mean pre-symptomatic. I should have specified. Not pure asymptomatics. There still seems to be considerable evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission (just like flu, actually). The CDC still believes 50% of transmission is occurring pre-symptomatically. The serial interval and the incubation period are basically the same, for example.

I'm all for the Michael Mina approach. 

[Cold Miser]

...Covid creeping in and out of the conversation much over the past few weeks, and rightfully so.  I wish the conversation would warrant a civilized Covid thread again. Through all of the weeds in that cesspool, there was some decent discussion. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

No. I don't believe that's happening anymore and hasn't happened for some time. I know folks want to blame the big state governors for a lot of the early nursing home deaths, but what's the excuse now? Unknowing and asymptomatic staff bringing it into facilities has always been the major driver imo. 

Don’t tons of people die in nursing homes from respiratory illnesses all the time? Kinda just what happens there. 

[PhineasC]

Once they lock people down and start paying them to be unemployed, they will never go back to work. The socialist paradise will have arrived. Hope people see where this is headed. I realize people are scared of the ‘vid. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Don’t tons of people die in nursing homes from respiratory illnesses all the time? Kinda just what happens there. 

Not this many. There's 50k pneumonia and influenza deaths on average per year. This year there's been 357K Covid, influenza, and pneumonia deaths. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Once they lock people down and start paying them to be unemployed, they will never go back to work. The socialist paradise will have arrived. Hope people see where this is headed. I realize people are scared of the ‘vid. 

I see a lot of fear of total economic collapse and communism from the right. Not sure it's any difference or more appropriate than total fear of covid. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I have heard from reliable outlets that less than .5% of USA's  total population ( Elderly Care facilities ) are responsible for 40% of the Covid deaths. That would heavily skew the elderly mortality data between those in elderly care facilities and those in other situations (such as living at home or with family) also as viral load maybe a leading cause of severe cases that would sort of emphasize what a gargantuan disaster governors who argued to "discriminate against returning covid positive patients back to their home would violate their rights" . I would like to know what the policy is this year. 

 Ruin the economy, and then you are dependent on Government.  That sounds...like the direction the globe is headed. What an opportunity for a Reset of Capitalism . I'm being cynical and somewhat tongue in cheek ..but the fact remains their is tremendous opportunity. A financially depressed globe full of debt stressed soverign nations,  depressed industry , highest % of populations collecting pandemic unemployment EVER (and it's not close)  and depressed citizens of all ages .. tends to be  open to ideas that they otherwise would not be. That doesn't mean such solutions will come to fruition but to ignore that is to ignore some history and  human nature . 

Also great when your counting on a congress that can't pass pandemic aid since August. If folks want to entertain ideas like Biden's "covid man" Osterholm...you can't do it without causing forced poverty of millions MORE unless congress actually agrees to pay folks replacement wages like Osterholm (to his credit emphasizes/ suggests).  

 Because some countries certainly have Tremendously dropped their numbers, so it can be done, the key is the cost has to be minimized from a humanitarian perspective. Knowing the USA and Moscow mitch we will probably/potentially? see a blend of a worst case scenario for lives and economy thou we would  see a better chance of a good response (if cases go sky high and economy re-enters recession)

 

I agree 100%.

I realize that I will get bashed for this, but if it comes down to needing to destroy the economy in order to save the most vulnerable, then I think I would rather see a survival of the fittest and most mindful element come into play.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The CDC still believes 50% of transmission is occurring pre-symptomatically.

I'm not sure it's that high, but ok.  And it's probably not more than 24 hours before symptoms set in either. That's why we should go to a rapid test now. This is a pretty primitive run of the mill respiratory virus. Immunology, viral spread, viral spread kinetics, viral load dogma, etc. hasn't magically changed. And if it wasn't for killing the LTC facilities folks (close to 60% of deaths), this would be relegated to swine flu status in 2009. 

But LTC facility spread of norovirus, C. Diff, and any manner of pestilence has been around for years. I'm not sure why it should surprise anyone that this is any different. Swine didn't kill them because they were immune to it. The infections were among the younger crowd who had a thymus and could fight it off. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Not this many. There's 50k pneumonia and influenza deaths on average per year. This year there's been 357K Covid, influenza, and pneumonia deaths. 

How many of those are “with COVID” versus “due to COVID”?

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I see a lot of fear of total economic collapse and communism from the right. Not sure it's any difference or more appropriate than total fear of covid. 

Once they start paying people to stay home and not work, they are never going to go back to work. That isn’t fear or hyperbole, just a fact. All people begging the govt to shut it all down need to understand this fact. Society will be radically changed forever. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I'm not sure it's that high, but ok.  And it's probably not more than 24 hours before symptoms set in either. That's why we should go to a rapid test now. This is a pretty primitive run of the mill respiratory virus. Immunology, viral spread, viral spread kinetics, viral load dogma, etc. hasn't magically changed. And if it wasn't for killing the LTC facilities folks (close to 60% of deaths), this would be relegated to swine flu status in 2009. 

But LTC facility spread of norovirus, C. Diff, and any manner of pestilence has been around for years. I'm not sure why it should surprise anyone that this is any different. Swine didn't kill them because they were immune to it. The infections were among the younger crowd who had a thymus and could fight it off. 

Yeah, I mean there's still some disagreement on the percentage, just like there's plenty of disagreement on what percentage of people are actually asymptomatic. The viral loads peak either the day before or the day of symptom onset. It seems like the really infectious window is fairly short, maybe only 3 to 5 days. 

There seems like there should be an effort to test all the staff daily nationally so that it has less of a chance of getting in these nursing homes. 

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

How many of those are “with COVID” versus “due to COVID”?

Try harder. 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree 100%.

I realize that I will get bashed for this, but if it comes down to needing to destroy the economy in order to save the most vulnerable, then I think I would rather see a survival of the fittest and most mindful element come into play.

Most taxpaying rational Americans think this way. Despite what some say, you can put a price on human life. Insurance companies, doctors, and governments do so all the time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Once they start paying people to stay home and not work, they are never going to go back to work. That isn’t fear or hyperbole, just a fact. All people begging the govt to shut it all down need to understand this fact. Society will be radically changed forever. 

Even during the first shutdown....there were people making more than they did when they worked. That is a fact and a problematic one at that.

[PhineasC]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Try harder. 

You have been super deep in the kool-aid tank since March and it may take years for you to swim back out. A real shame.  

But the case numbers!!!

[PhineasC]

Food truck burger flipper is furiously dropping emojis in this thread. 

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...Covid creeping in and out of the conversation much over the past few weeks, and rightfully so.  I wish the conversation would warrant a civilized Covid thread again. Through all of the weeds in that cesspool, there was some decent discussion. 

The covid discussion has a lot of interesting points, but it can't stay apolitical. I was out yesterday and catching up up just now, the convo is creeping political again. It's not too uncivil (yet), but it always eventually gets back to the same talking points.

Nobody is going to change their mind RE: lockdowns from this discussion which is why I don't see the point in continuing it.

[Brewbeer]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even during the first shutdown....there were people making more than they did when they worked. That is a fact and a problematic one at that.

This kinda makes it sound like people don't make enough money for the work they do when they are working.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Brewbeer said:

This kinda makes it sound like people don't make enough money for the work they do when they are working.

Right. Its just not worth it to go back to work, so they protract the befits as long as possible, which fosters dependency.

[Typhoon Tip]

Whatever happened to the 'virulency is losing its potency' claims ? 

I guess like all 'information' in this present era of wanton liars an paralyzing immorality, it was proven unsubstantiated??   

Or maybe it/is was true, but just not the case everywhere.  My guess?  We won't know ...because it erodes on the profit of the commercialization of this issue to inform the masses of that.  

Meanwhile there's still a sociological aspect to this ... namely, people are 'getting used to this' as a background sort of canvas. Reaction to reality now is starting to raise eyebrows - that happens. Fear tends to erode in collective thinking given time and exposure in any crisis scenario; that statement doesn't require a theoretical, post-doctoral data-based inclusion to be true.  We all know this...  that's why we are no longer scared ( at least most of us...) by that dark closet at the other side of night as adults... blah blah...

So familiarization breeds contempt....  That's true in a lot of ways ... and another phenomenon that emerges from that same circuitry at the individual level, which then integrates and becomes of the whole, is that familiarization emboldens folk and they'll lower precaution. We can 'sense' it taking place around us, now.  There's something happening ..out there in society that I predicted would - and not taking credit; most sentient adults did, too. 

Word of mouth is factorable. 

People are hearing stories of others that have tested positive, and did not assimilate symptoms.  Or, their anecdotal passage through the illness was minor... Pro athletes are showcasing this.  Marcus Smart (Boston Celtics), or Cam Newton ( NE Patriots) but performed at a professional levels after having recovered... etc... There are exceptions - but they are "exceptions" which by definition and convention means they do not represent the bell-curve of experiences.   But for those, some did/do go on to manifest some sort of longer termed heart and or lung and or ...I dunno, Covid-Toe aspects, but those are eventually resolvable (from what I've read) via therapies, save for rarities.  But, even with Influenza-A and B ... you get these too! 

See, the Industrial Media Complex's "social engineering" is to keep pulse rates elevated ...for click and swipe for profit economics. It is just another act in shameful-unethical informatica if endemic to present era - just imho. We keep hearing about the atrocities of C-19 in a vacuum ...like on an island with no conceptual-dimensional boundaries that can be used to put things in perspective, on f'ing purpose!  

'Nother prediction, ...that word of mouth is eventually going to be insurmountable against the Fox and CNN monsters in the dark closet at the other side of the room, and they'll ceasing being able to trigger the histrionics that keep their profits up...and we'll see the 'real' reality of C-19s 'affliction' at that time.   It's probably just another historic thing that we develop a vaccine for... that degrades a "crisis" into "crisis management" ...which ultimately becomes "on-going seasonal public health concern" ...just like Influenze A-B ...  

And all the while...we'll be consuming headlines about how, " ...Life as we know it will never be 'normal' again..." .... BULLSHIT.  The genomic root of Infl A and B is in fact the Spanish Flu... and if history ever should repeat ( THAT never happens in Humanity, huh - ), soon as folks mash up 'word of mouth' familiarization with a sense of technological buffer/protection... good luck imposing personal liberties Fox and CNN.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The covid discussion has a lot of interesting points, but it can't stay apolitical. I was out yesterday and catching up up just now, the convo is creeping political again. It's not too uncivil (yet), but it always eventually gets back to the same talking points.

Nobody is going to change their mind RE: lockdowns from this discussion which is why I don't see the point in continuing it.

I'll give it a rest. I have never engaged in this before, as I usually do not venture into banter threads. Sorry if I was beating a dead covid cell.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The covid discussion has a lot of interesting points, but it can't stay apolitical. I was out yesterday and catching up up just now, the convo is creeping political again. It's not too uncivil (yet), but it always eventually gets back to the same talking points.

Nobody is going to change their mind RE: lockdowns from this discussion which is why I don't see the point in continuing it.

 

[powderfreak]

This cracked me up... gotta laugh once in a while.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll give it a rest. I have never engaged in this before, as I usually do not venture into banter threads. Sorry if I was beating a dead covid cell.

Nah, no worries....it wasn't directed at you in particular. But if you were in the previous covid thread that ran for a few months in spring and early summer, you'll notice a parallel. It's the same posters butting heads on the merits of lockdowns vs no lockdowns. Nobody is going to change their mind...and then it eventually creeps more and more political as the discussion veers to the motive of such posts rather than the posts themselves....round and round we go. The end result? Nobody changes their mind and the forum becomes more uncivil.

This is why we've always had a strict "no politics" rule on the wx side....covid blurred the line. But after giving it a legit shot for months on end and even more recently to a lighter degree in this thread, it's pretty clear the arc always bends back toward the political side on this topic.