Fall Banter and General Discussion

[PhineasC]

For most people I know, wearing a mask has become more about peer pressure than fear of the virus at this point. It was the other way around in early summer. I think most people have a bit of COVID news/stat fatigue and have been tuning it out, and the hygiene, social distancing, and mask practices are really just habits now versus something they think about actively. That's not a bad thing, really. Fear of dying from COVID when that likelihood is incredibly remote is very unhelpful. Better to just get into good habits that becomes second-nature.

I do know a few people who are still "on lockdown" (of their own choosing) and basically never leave the house... I am little worried about them now. It's time to come out, folks.

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

In order to determine the rates and severity of these long term effects, we need to follow survivors for 5-20 years after recovery and also control for the many other factors that could be causing their lingering issues (such as existing lune tissue scarring from smoking). There is no way to be speaking definitively on long term effects right now. It's just not possible.

Agree, but that doesn't fit the narrative

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Is there numbers for that? I saw the above numbers last night for survival rate.

Yeah... I probably should have worded it differently...  I have not seen definitive percentages etc, but it appears that there are more people suffering effects of this for long periods of time than dying.  Survival rate is of course very high for most age groups.     

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30701-5/fulltext

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

In order to determine the rates and severity of these long term effects, we need to follow survivors for 5-20 years after recovery and also control for the many other factors that could be causing their lingering issues (such as existing lung tissue scarring from smoking). There is no way to be speaking definitively on long term effects right now. It's just not possible.

Yeah.  As I just said to Jeff, I should have worded it differently.  Not sure if any numbers have been determined for affects beyond 90 or so days after being diagnosed.  But signs seem to be pointing to that happening for many.  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Agree, but that doesn't fit the narrative

 

Not trying to promote an agenda.   Not dismissing it as the flu either

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not trying to promote an agenda.   Not dismissing it as the flu either

I'm not saying you are promoting an agenda but modern media likes to sensationalize things that are not and cannot in such a short time be scientifically proven like doctors and scientists would normally stress the importance of doing. They just put it out there as fact even though it hasn't met the conditions to be.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not trying to promote an agenda.   Not dismissing it as the flu either

I guess my question would be based off of these numbers is why are we still going thru phases of opening and not just open? We know who's the most vulnerable now, So those are the ones to protect.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

I'm not saying you are promoting an agenda but modern media likes to sensationalize things that are not and cannot in such a short time be scientifically proven like doctors and scientists would normally stress the importance of doing. They just put it out there as fact even though it hasn't met the conditions to be.

Media has been doing this since...well...media has existed.    Caveat emptor and all the rest... I try to get into the studies/journals I can understand. And first hand accounts if possible.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

I guess my question would be based off of these numbers is why are we still going thru phases of opening and not just open? We know who's the most vulnerable now, So those are the ones to protect.

An example... and I know Maine has different phases, etc...  in Massachusetts should indoor venues for concerts be open?  I would love to see a show live but would not personally go.  So...let's say a venue has 1000 people in it, somewhat distanced, but in there for 2 hours watching a band. Having fun... 5 people catch the 'vid... spread it to folks at work...who spread it to the grandma they need to help care for...

 

I dunno... I just have a bit of a break during work and was thinking about stuff.  Gotta get back to it.   

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Media has been doing this since...well...media has existed.    Caveat emptor and all the rest... I try to get into the studies/journals I can understand. And first hand accounts if possible.

I know people who are feeling the effects too. It's not just fake news. I'm not one to live in a bunker, but it's a novel virus and we are still finding out specifics about it. 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know people who are feeling the effects too. It's not just fake news. I'm not one to live in a bunker, but it's a novel virus and we are still finding out specifics about it. 

Myocarditis is definitely a concern..and also something that can be caused from other viruses like the flu. It would be nice if all information was presented. What we don't know yet is if COVID causes a higher rate of myocarditis..it could. 

[OceanStWx]

12 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm a mile north of Rt. 1

My primary house will always be Pit1.  Between being up here this week and envy over Jerry's impending retirement, I am so eager to get up her permanently and rename this one Pit1. Not for a few years yet....though I do buy my lottery tickets, so who knows.

Join us

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I'm not saying you are promoting an agenda but modern media likes to sensationalize things that are not and cannot in such a short time be scientifically proven like doctors and scientists would normally stress the importance of doing. They just put it out there as fact even though it hasn't met the conditions to be.

I feel like the media has been doing that since the dawn of time... from everything like “drinking white win over red wine may cause you to die earlier” to various just odd ball stories sensationalizing every little study done on the planet.  The media has always put out shit it shouldn’t and claimed it as gospel but no one cared when it was random studies about owning a dog makes you live 5.6 years longer on average than non-dog owners.  Peer reviewed?  Ha.

The problem is this is the first time doing that seems to have really impacted public policy.  

[powderfreak]

51 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

For most people I know, wearing a mask has become more about peer pressure than fear of the virus at this point. It was the other way around in early summer. I think most people have a bit of COVID news/stat fatigue and have been tuning it out, and the hygiene, social distancing, and mask practices are really just habits now versus something they think about actively. That's not a bad thing, really. Fear of dying from COVID when that likelihood is incredibly remote is very unhelpful. Better to just get into good habits that becomes second-nature.

I do know a few people who are still "on lockdown" (of their own choosing) and basically never leave the house... I am little worried about them now. It's time to come out, folks.

Really?  Around here it seems that masks have become like washing your hands.  Just something you do, like a good habit.  Like it's second nature, you can see how it happened in the Asian countries.  You do it for a while and it's just part of you when you go out... like putting pants on.  Not out of fear anymore than using hand sanitizer every time you get in your car, just a good safe practice when in public.

[OceanStWx]

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... I probably should have worded it differently...  I have not seen definitive percentages etc, but it appears that there are more people suffering effects of this for long periods of time than dying.  Survival rate is of course very high for most age groups.     

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30701-5/fulltext

Yeah, I'm firmly in the camp of I just don't want to get it. So I wear a mask and we haven't been hanging out with anyone except for our parents. My job is already taking a toll on my long term health, so I would rather not mess with additional long term impacts. Most of what I've seen on these numbers is smaller populations, like the Penn State student-athlete testing showing roughly a third of the COVID cases still had heart inflammation months later. 

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Cheer up

COVID-19 SURVIVAL RATES (per CDC):
Ages 0-19:     99.997%
Ages 20-49:  99.98%
Ages 50-69:  99.5%
Ages 70+:       94.6%

Well if we do some back of the envelope math on this for just 70+: that's roughly 28 million people in the US, at 5% mortality and 60% infection rate for herd immunity/just opening back up that's nearly 1 million people dead. Again, I'd rather not. Show me a plan beyond "we're over it" (i.e. mask mandate and rapid test everyone). 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Really?  Around here it seems that masks have become like washing your hands.  Just something you do, like a good habit.  Like it's second nature, you can see how it happened in the Asian countries.  You do it for a while and it's just part of you when you go out... like putting pants on.  Not out of fear anymore than using hand sanitizer every time you get in your car, just a good safe practice when in public.

LOL did you read the rest of my post. We are saying the same thing.

By "peer pressure" I just mean you get into the habit because everyone else is doing it and you want to fit in, not because you are thinking about COVID death. Public pressure is a much better way to motivate people than fear.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

LOL did you read the rest of my post. We are saying the same thing.

By "peer pressure" I just mean you get into the habit because everyone else is doing it and you want to fit in. 

Ha misinterpreted it.  I thought you were saying peer pressure is a negative.  My bad on that (hat tip) .

But certainly agree people have tuned the news out.  I haven't looked at any COVID news in a long time except when prompted in this thread to be honest.  Just go about your day with the new normal and you're good.  No huge gatherings, wash your hands, wear your mask, and have a good day.  This is certainly sustainable until

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Really?  Around here it seems that masks have become like washing your hands.  Just something you do, like a good habit.  Like it's second nature, you can see how it happened in the Asian countries.  You do it for a while and it's just part of you when you go out... like putting pants on.  Not out of fear anymore than using hand sanitizer every time you get in your car, just a good safe practice when in public.

After working as long as I have in weather you notice that the US is just not great at preparedness and prevention. We're generally great with recovery.

I hope some of these health practices carry over in the future, like the hand sanitizer that you mention. How much money could we save as a country from run of mill colds and seasonal flus that people don't catch because of that? And it's a relatively simple thing to do. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

After working as long as I have in weather you notice that the US is just not great at preparedness and prevention. We're generally great with recovery.

I hope some of these health practices carry over in the future, like the hand sanitizer that you mention. How much money could we save as a country from run of mill colds and seasonal flus that people don't catch because of that? And it's a relatively simple thing to do. 

I know when we were in the office, we always wiped our stations down every time we left or were coming on shift. We had wipes everywhere along with hand sanitizer. I can't prove it, but it sure seemed like it cut down getting these awful office colds running wild. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I know when we were in the office, we always wiped our stations down every time we left or were coming on shift. We had wipes everywhere along with hand sanitizer. I can't prove it, but it sure seemed like it cut down getting these awful office colds running wild. 

Totally. Our office usually has someone go down every month for a few days with something like that. But since COVID every office has a supply of wipes and hand sanitizer, and station wipedowns are standard practice now. We've only had people call in sick for their kids in the last 6 months (maybe because everyone is afraid to fake a cold now? ). Makes me wonder why didn't always have a supply of wipes. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Totally. Our office usually has someone go down every month for a few days with something like that. But since COVID every office has a supply of wipes and hand sanitizer, and station wipedowns are standard practice now. We've only had people call in sick for their kids in the last 6 months (maybe because everyone is afraid to fake a cold now? ). Makes me wonder why didn't always have a supply of wipes. 

My wife just came down with a really bad cold in the last 24 hours... runny nose, sneezing, sounds terrible, no energy, etc.  Her work is allowing it fine as she has no fever and after contacting local PCP, they said it's fine as long as there's no fever.  She's taking her temp every 3 hours or so.  Will likely go home early today anyway but her spa has no employees and no one applying...so she needs to be there for now until someone comes in at noon.

But it seems like a good starting point that everyone with a head cold doesn't just get sent home for two weeks or presumed to have COVID.  The fever seems to be the really big part per the hotel group's SOP and the physicians advice.

I always get at least one crushing head cold per winter...usually lasting 1-2 weeks.  Maybe this enhanced hygiene though will cut down on those things like you said.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

My wife just came down with a really bad cold in the last 24 hours... runny nose, sneezing, sounds terrible, no energy, etc.  Her work is allowing it fine as she has no fever and after contacting local PCP, they said it's fine as long as there's no fever.  She's taking her temp every 3 hours or so.  Will likely go home early today anyway but her spa has no employees and no one applying...so she needs to be there.

But it seems like a good starting point that everyone with a head cold doesn't just get sent home for two weeks or presumed to have COVID.  The fever seems to be the really big part per the hotel group's SOP and the physicians advice.

Interesting, because it sounds like not everyone has a fever with COVID. That's where I see widespread rapid testing being useful. Even at 80% accuracy, you grab two of those and the chances you falsely test negative twice are pretty low (like 4%). 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Interesting, because it sounds like not everyone has a fever with COVID. That's where I see widespread rapid testing being useful. Even at 80% accuracy, you grab two of those and the chances you falsely test negative twice are pretty low (like 4%). 

Yeah I think we are leaning towards a test anyway once she can get home.  But primary care and her General Manager guidance was to watch for fever.  It’s really the first instance of trying to delineate between normal cold and COVID.  I know at the ski area the fear here is getting into a practice where everyone with a runny nose needs to go home and get tested.  It’s really tough to think about managing a couple dozen people and knowing when the right time to pull the trigger is.  I think that’s why they look for fever?  When my sister and her fiancé had it, they were firmly in the fever camp...101-102 for a week.

Rapid testing is key.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I think we are leaning towards a test anyway once she can get home.  But primary care and her General Manager guidance was to watch for fever.  It’s really the first instance of trying to delineate between normal cold and COVID.  I know at the ski area the fear here is getting into a practice where everyone with a runny nose needs to go home and get tested.  It’s really tough to think about managing a couple dozen people and knowing when the right time to pull the trigger is.  I think that’s why they look for fever?  When my sister and her fiancé had it, they were firmly in the fever camp...101-102 for a week.

Rapid testing is key.

With a quick cheek swap, you could get a test and have results while waiting for your drive thru Dunkin coffee. 

[moneypitmike]

Bald eagle taking off.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

With a quick cheek swap, you could get a test and have results while waiting for your drive thru Dunkin coffee. 

Yeah like this is the wording they are using which is the same as the CDC (a fever AND symptoms).  It’s a very uncomfortable position to be in, just wait till everyone is getting colds.

If you think you have been exposed to COVID‑19 and develop a fever and symptoms...

[moneypitmike]

Didn’t coronavirus get banned?  Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Couple aspects about SAR CoV-2 that I always think about ... 

One is, this business of a vaccine - .. hopefully the ballast of the population understands:  A vaccine does not cure COVID-19? It only protects individuals, but ... that goes like 'a person is smart, but people are stupid.'   It will prevent individuals from getting a particular strain of SAR CoV-2 ( mutation(s)), but society will always have those.    

The H1N1 outbreak that seemed to "origin" in the spring of 1918 (Kansas), is still with us today. The main arc of the 'outbreak' and uncontrolled horror of that was wrought did so spring of 1918 through to autumn of 1919 ( although I have read that by April of 1919 that was really when new cases become more a sporadic occurrence in smaller enclaves of cities).  We are at month 9 give or take a couple of months on the front side, of COVID-19'r wrath - there's evidence like we've all heard that some ancestor of this thing may predate last mid-winter but that's ongoing ... Point being, we are roughly only half the the H1N1 pathogenic gestation. We have advantages that may shorten that time range - but there is a tendency for impatience ... which is utterly rooted faux expectation? What are people thinking there?  

But that "Spanish Flu" as it became to be known is the ancestral root of these Influenza A and B strains that modern tech perennially still has to modulate new vaccines for every year. It appears likely COVID-19 is destined to the same "population management," but not completely eradicated - it's pathogenicity isn't controllable in that sense.  Which by virtue of having some form of control at all, I guess steps it down from crisis mode.. and people can stop wearing masks to run out to the store for f'um eggs.  

Two is the sociological aspect...  Society did return to the previous dynamic ( norm) after the Spanish Flu.  I keep hearing this 'dystopian vision' that sounds like headline incendiary rhetoric to me ... that things will 'never be the same same same same...'  Bullshit!

Since we all know that history is both a reasonable guide, and ... Humanity more typically than not ... will repeat it ... that does not tempt one to envision a future that is inherently responsible to any background risks left smoldering in the aftermath future off this thing.  NO way.. when 'threat' falls below criticality ... humans lower fear through time, exposure and familiarity.  They'll get back to living lives, at earliest INconvenience to do so... The Meh effect kicks in, almost out of necessity...   - and 'managed' public health concerns fit into this backseating tendency.  I mean that should just be expected - imho - quite intuitively and apriori -based. 

So, I am sure I share in this 'worldly' opinion like most with any modicum of introspection ... that are not immediately in"FLU"enced by either CNN or Fox News' wordsmithing headline demagoguery for profit.. that COVID-19 is always going to be there .. but a combination of a working vaccine and familiarity reduces fear and through that pathway society will do exacty what it's done before and 10 years from now this will have been absorbed into the annuls of other failed world-ending lore.   I just personally cannot wait to take the leverage out of mass -media's profit zapping

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Didn’t coronavirus get banned?  Lol

No thanks to you...the person who started the thread. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I'm firmly in the camp of I just don't want to get it. So I wear a mask and we haven't been hanging out with anyone except for our parents. My job is already taking a toll on my long term health, so I would rather not mess with additional long term impacts. Most of what I've seen on these numbers is smaller populations, like the Penn State student-athlete testing showing roughly a third of the COVID cases still had heart inflammation months later. 

Well if we do some back of the envelope math on this for just 70+: that's roughly 28 million people in the US, at 5% mortality and 60% infection rate for herd immunity/just opening back up that's nearly 1 million people dead. Again, I'd rather not. Show me a plan beyond "we're over it" (i.e. mask mandate and rapid test everyone). 

Assuming that a large majority of the population doesn't already have built-in / tcell immunity via cross-protection from other coronaviruses  (potentially between 25-50%) + % of Population already infected - then yes those numbers would be concerning. I just highly doubt it given the trends around the world. 

I'm specifically referring to the fatality rate though - cross-reactive T cell memory can reduce disease severity, such that fewer people would become severely ill or die from COVID-19. So, hoping for that + vaccine will really cut down numbers over the next year so that we can get back closer to normal.