Fall Banter and General Discussion

[alex]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think Pinkham doesn’t quite get the upslope that the north side of the presidentials get....they probably need really unblocked flow....but I don’t think they are shadowed much by wildcat in synoptic events since they are so close to it and the flow doesn’t get as blocked in low levels for synoptic events as it does in upslope events. I’d think they are easily a net winner on orographics in most synoptic events. Maybe at the tail end on NW/NNW winds they could struggle as you mention...that’s typically when the moisture is more low level and the flow could start getting blocked some by MWN/Adams/Madison.  

That April 2011 measurement looks just plain bad. 

That's exactly right! You can actually see it driving up 16; very often there's a wall of snow to your west/northwest, and broken clouds with flurries in the valley 

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think Pinkham doesn’t quite get the upslope that the north side of the presidentials get....they probably need really unblocked flow....but I don’t think they are shadowed much by wildcat in synoptic events since they are so close to it and the flow doesn’t get as blocked in low levels for synoptic events as it does in upslope events. I’d think they are easily a net winner on orographics in most synoptic events. Maybe at the tail end on NW/NNW winds they could struggle as you mention...that’s typically when the moisture is more low level and the flow could start getting blocked some by MWN/Adams/Madison.  

That April 2011 measurement looks just plain bad. 

We’ve seen some pretty blocked flow synoptic events over the years, but it would still benefit Pinkham because MWN is higher than Wildcat... I don’t see them getting blocked on anything with a SE or E low level flow.  But if the SFC to mid-level lows aren’t stacked, you can get some decent veering and a low level inversion leading to solid blocking on the SE side of any terrain in some synoptic events.  

That veering/blocking is why the western/NW sides can sometimes do much less QPF on the synoptic portion, IMO.  If the flow was unblocked you get a more even distribution on both sides of the terrain.

[ORH_wxman]

Fwiw here is look at the topography around Pinkham....you can see how those 5000-6000 foot presidentials probably block a lot of upslope from them. But they actually look pretty nice on a N or NE wind. ...or even southerly or SSE winds. 

They may get some downslope on due easterly flow if the forcing is mostly lowlevel orographic driven....but if it’s deeper layer then they might get some downstream drift since it’s not like they are 10-20 miles west of Wildcat. 

 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw here is look at the topography around Pinkham....you can see how those 5000-6000 foot presidentials probably block a lot of upslope from them. But they actually look pretty nice on a N or NE wind. ...or even southerly or SSE winds. 

They may get some downslope on due easterly flow if the forcing is mostly lowlevel orographic driven....but if it’s deeper layer then they might get some downstream drift since it’s not like they are 10-20 miles west of Wildcat. 

 

I have a theory that gets stronger every time I see it, but there is something substantial to a flow that parallels a gap in the terrain.  Like what you mentioned for N or NE winds or S winds into Pinkham.  The valleys between the mountains do best IMO on flows that parallel that terrain and cause a good deal of low level convergence as all that air is forced between 3,000-4,000ft terrain... like when you put rocks close to each other in a river and watch the water build up and then get squeezed between them.

I really think it's a thing for J.Spin in the Winooski Valley and I've seen enough times where it appears some meso-scale convergence is happening between the mountains on westerly flow that takes his precip rates to another level... and say RT 2 corridor in Randolph has a similar topography in a larger sense to I-89 corridor through the Green Spine where J.Spin is...with a relatively narrow gap between the terrain.  Pinkham would have the best forced flow on a blocked southerly or blocked NEly flow, IMO.  When there's veering with height, the moisture has more trouble getting over the barriers so it finds the gaps to squeeze through... like forcing toothpaste out of a bottle, you get this concentrated stream out the end.

I do think the preferred locations are ones with gaps that travel east to west but I'm very convinced there's something meso-scale to those lower terrain mountain passes between larger terrain, where the best results are flows that parallel the gaps.  That wind will take the path of least resistance and so it all funnels into those gaps, leading to intense low level convergence.  Results in better low level lift, often better snow growth, and you get absolutely zero low level drying of hydrometeors.  It is extremely efficient precipitation to have a flow align with the gap in the mountains.

 

[ORH_wxman]

I zoomed out a little and put roughly Phin’s and Alex’s locations....

First one is Phin...you can def see he’s in a really good synoptic spot. Those north, northeast, and easterly winds are gonna upslope and also funnel into his area....he’s def getting upslope too but not as good as Alex.

 

 

 

Now here is roughly where Alex is (correct me Alex if I screwed it up but I thought you were slightly west of Bretton Woods...def prime upslope spot...you have funneling like powderfreak said plus great spot for blocked flow. There’s definitely potential to struggle a bit on bb easterly or ENE flow events though but they look fine on N and NE winds....just maybe less funneling than Phin gets. 

 

 

[PhineasC]

LOL @ORH_wxman is a mad weenie scientist.

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, PhineasC said:

LOL @ORH_wxman is a mad weenie scientist.

You’re catching on. One of the best!

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL @ORH_wxman is a mad weenie scientist.

It’s what we do up here.  I spend my time visualizing air flow around and in mountains lol.  I probably spent more time at work looking at mountain climo today than I did working.  Don’t tell anyone.  It’s September at a ski area, ha.  The work is coming.  Be glad I wasn’t one of your employees working from home, lazy bastards just looking at topomaps and cocorahs.

[PhineasC]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

You’re catching on. One of the best!

Oh, trust me, those of us from the MA know this! He and @CoastalWx were legendary in the MA forum. When those guys appeared and started talking about thundersnow and the comma head, you knew you were in for a good storm. 

[alex]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I zoomed out a little and put roughly Phin’s and Alex’s locations....

First one is Phin...you can def see he’s in a really good synoptic spot. Those north, northeast, and easterly winds are gonna upslope and also funnel into his area....he’s def getting upslope too but not as good as Alex.

 

 

 

Now here is roughly where Alex is (correct me Alex if I screwed it up but I thought you were slightly west of Bretton Woods...def prime upslope spot...you have funneling like powderfreak said plus great spot for blocked flow. There’s definitely potential to struggle a bit on bb easterly or ENE flow events though but they look fine on N and NE winds....just maybe less funneling than Phin gets. 

 

 

I'm just about there just a little bit to the East. My house is actually directly below the West Mountain ski trails at Bretton Woods 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s what we do up here.  I spend my time visualizing air flow around and in mountains lol.  I probably spent more time at work looking at mountain climo today than I did working.  Don’t tell anyone.  It’s September at a ski area, ha.  The work is coming.  Be glad I wasn’t one of your employees working from home, lazy bastards just looking at topomaps and cocorahs.

I have a meteorologist who works for me actually, and I have had him doing some data dumps from the CoCoRaHS site for me lately. LOL

[alex]

I guess this is the easiest way to show it 

[powderfreak]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I have a meteorologist who works for me actually, and I have had him doing some data dumps from the CoCoRaHS site for me lately. LOL

That's awesome.  I love it because your move has brought more light into studying the climo of the Whites and N.NH.  We've had the Greens pretty well covered for years from Mitch down in S.VT to myself and J.Spin monitoring the upslope zone up north... I actually think posters who live outside the area have a decent grasp of the climo in the Greens.  Now we can focus on really honing in our skills and knowledge on the area around the Whites.  We need a poster (maybe Pickles) to move up to Rangley and we can really micro-analyze that. 

Like how low the snowfall is around Whitefield-Lancaster really blew my mind, even for a 1,500ft shelf on a 1,900ft ridge in that discussion yesterday.  Love learning stuff like that. 

 

 

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's awesome.  I love it because your move has brought more light into studying the climo of the Whites and N.NH.  We've had the Greens pretty well covered for years from Mitch down in S.VT to myself and J.Spin monitoring the upslope zone up north... I actually think posters who live outside the area have a decent grasp of the climo in the Greens.  Now we can focus on really honing in our skills and knowledge on the area around the Whites.  We need a poster (maybe Pickles) to move up to Rangley and we can really micro-analyze that. 

 

Yeah, seems like there is a bit of a dead-zone in that part of Maine in terms of posters here. Glad I could fill in the link of posters heading NE. You guys have me absolutely stoked for winter. The months are passing too slowly right now.

[ORH_wxman]

There is no doubt we have a sickness for this stuff....

Yeah, before Alex moved up there a few years ago we had nobody right in the whites. Now with Phin we have two....and since Phin is also in a real weenie spot but for somewhat different reasons than Alex, it’s really fun to scrutinize the differences and then wait for their obs in the winter. 

This stuff is straight out of heaven for hardcore snow weenies....analyzing topo maps. 

And a big yes to Maine...we really need some posters in the Bethel-Rangeley corridor. Maybe in another 5-10 years I’ll contribute by getting a place there, LOL. 

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Oh, trust me, those of us from the MA know this! He and @CoastalWx were legendary in the MA forum. When those guys appeared and started talking about thundersnow and the comma head, you knew you were in for a good storm. 

One of my favorite events was the event a few days before snowmageddon (I think that’s what you guys called 2/5-6/10)....the event I’m thinking of I think was 1/30/10...and you all were fighting with southern VA and NC weenies. It was like a classic SWFE (overrunning event) except displaced 200 miles south and I was thinking “those NC weenies are gonna feel just like mid-Atlantic weenies during overrunning events....classic trend north in the final 24-48 hours” and I went in there posting about how MD and DC would get smoked while they’d prob mix with sleet and rain down in NC. It was like forecasting for SNE the previous 2 winters where NYC weenies kept getting duped...except MD was SNE this time and NC/S VA was NYC. Turned out perfect too, I think I recall you and Marcus getting like 7-8” of fluff when the models were barely giving you an inch 36 hours earlier. 

[powderfreak]

Phin, how much did you get or what was max depth in 2010 down there?  Those were some legit storms, 100" seasonal totals in a couple spots right?

That still has to rank near one of the more incredible couple of storms relative to a spots location that an East Coast climate has seen.  Then 5 years later 2015 came along in Eastern SNE.  The ocean storms were off the hook for a stretch during a multi-year period in different spots.

[PhineasC]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Phin, how much did you get or what was max depth in 2010 down there?  Those were some legit storms, 100" seasonal totals in a couple spots right?

That still has to rank near one of the more incredible couple of storms relative to a spots location that an East Coast climate has seen.  Then 5 years later 2015 came along in Eastern SNE.  The ocean storms were off the hook for a stretch during a multi-year period in different spots.

I am terrible with records, but in 2009-2010, I believe my max depth in Kingsville after the 2 February storms was about 40 inches, IIRC. It shrunk fairly quickly after that.

I received 19" in the December HECS, about 30" in the first Feb HECS, and about 25" or so in the 2nd Feb HECS (again, I am terrible with these records so anyone can correct me if I am wrong). 

It was all heavy wet snow and we get warm after storms most of the time so the depth numbers probably seem off to you. LOL We don't go to negative digits and days of upslope after a major coastal storm!

It was apocalyptic down here for sure, but not near 100". This winter in Randolph really will be beyond anything I have experienced over a long period of time (I have been at ski places in the NE and out west for huge storms before, but in a condo and never for a lengthy period).

There was one storm prior to the Feb HECS in late January. It snowed with temps in the lower 20s. It is often forgotten (for good reason), but it was an amazing teaser. We call it the "cold snow" storm. It was supposed to stay suppressed into NC and VA, but it drifted north. I think @ORH_wxman was one of the few mets banging the drum of the north trend.

But, yeah, basically this all can be summed up by average November through December in Randolph. haha

[Fozz]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Phin, how much did you get or what was max depth in 2010 down there?  Those were some legit storms, 100" seasonal totals in a couple spots right?

That still has to rank near one of the more incredible couple of storms relative to a spots location that an East Coast climate has seen.  Then 5 years later 2015 came along in Eastern SNE.  The ocean storms were off the hook for a stretch during a multi-year period in different spots.

Some of the hills of Carroll County, MD (esp the good spots of Parr's ridge) had close to 50" of depth after the second February blizzard (Feb 9-10, 2010). We basically had two back to back HECS within just days of each other (Feb 5-6 and then Feb 9-10), and incredibly some of those lucky spots received over 2' from both storms each. Those areas are the ones that ended up with 100" for the season.

I lived in the same county as Phin (Baltimore county), a bit WNW of him just north of the beltway, and ended up with around 85" for the season with 3' max depth on Feb 10. The totals from the big February storms were 25" and then 20". An incredible event.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Some of the hills of Carroll County, MD (esp the good spots of Parr's ridge) had over 50" of depth after the second February blizzard (Feb 9-10, 2010). We basically had two back to back HECS within just days of each other (Feb 5-6 and then Feb 9-10), and incredibly some of those lucky spots received over 2' from both storms each. Those areas are the ones that ended up with 100" for the season.

I lived in the same county as Phin (Baltimore county), a bit WNW of him just north of the beltway, and ended up with around 85" for the season with 3' max depth on Feb 10. The totals from the big February storms were 25" and then 20". An incredible event.

Thanks Fozz, that helps reset my memory.

[PhineasC]

And @Ji still bitched and whined that winter ended in the middle of February after receiving 80 inches of snow.

[Fozz]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am terrible with records, but in 2009-2010, I believe my max depth in Kingsville after the 2 February storms was about 40 inches, IIRC. It shrunk fairly quickly after that.

I received 19" in the December HECS, about 30" in the first Feb HECS, and about 25" or so in the 2nd Feb HECS (again, I am terrible with these records so anyone can correct me if I am wrong). 

It was all heavy wet snow and we get warm after storms most of the time so the depth numbers probably seem off to you. LOL We don't go to negative digits and days of upslope after a major coastal storm!

It was apocalyptic down here for sure, but not near 100". This winter in Randolph really will be beyond anything I have experienced over a long period of time (I have been at ski places in the NE and out west for huge storms before, but in a condo and never for a lengthy period).

There was one storm prior to the Feb HECS in late January. It snowed with temps in the lower 20s. It is often forgotten (for good reason), but it was an amazing teaser. We call it the "cold snow" storm. It was supposed to stay suppressed into NC and VA, but it drifted north. I think @ORH_wxman was one of the few mets banging the drum of the north trend.

But, yeah, basically this all can be summed up by average November through December in Randolph. haha

The first storm (Feb 5-6) had the typical mid-Atlantic wet snow, but second storm (Feb 9-10) actually gave us high ratio powder with temps in the lower 20s, especially once the low bombed the morning of the 10th. The whole Baltimore area was in the perfect spot for the deform band and far enough from the surface low for temps to really plummet (I recall NJ mixing lol). It was an incredible scene. 

 

[PhineasC]

Just now, Fozz said:

The first storm (Feb 5-6) had the typical mid-Atlantic wet snow, but second storm (Feb 9-10) actually gave us high ratio powder with temps in the lower 20s, especially once the low bombed the morning of the 10th. The whole Baltimore area was in the perfect spot for the deform band and far enough from the surface low for temps to really plummet (I recall NJ mixing lol). It was an incredible scene. 

 

Yeah, you are right. I do remember the blizzard-like conditions in the second storm and more drifting.

[Fozz]

I was lucky enough to catch this footage at the height of the second February 2010 storm in MD. Still my all time favorite.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Some of the hills of Carroll County, MD (esp the good spots of Parr's ridge) had over 50" of depth after the second February blizzard (Feb 9-10, 2010). We basically had two back to back HECS within just days of each other (Feb 5-6 and then Feb 9-10), and incredibly some of those lucky spots received over 2' from both storms each. Those areas are the ones that ended up with 100" for the season.

I lived in the same county as Phin (Baltimore county), a bit WNW of him just north of the beltway, and ended up with around 85" for the season with 3' max depth on Feb 10. The totals from the big February storms were 25" and then 20". An incredible event.

I recall one of the posters in the Mid Atl forum saying they had a 55" depth, which is almost hard to believe in MD outside of Garret County.  But then again, we are talking Parrs Ridge which peaks through the clouds..lol.

I don't think I had higher than maybe low 30s as peak depth over the border in PA where I was living at the time. (Western Philly burbs)

[JakkelWx]

Going to retire in one of the snowiest places in New England when I get old enough.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am terrible with records, but in 2009-2010, I believe my max depth in Kingsville after the 2 February storms was about 40 inches, IIRC. It shrunk fairly quickly after that.

I received 19" in the December HECS, about 30" in the first Feb HECS, and about 25" or so in the 2nd Feb HECS (again, I am terrible with these records so anyone can correct me if I am wrong). 

It was all heavy wet snow and we get warm after storms most of the time so the depth numbers probably seem off to you. LOL We don't go to negative digits and days of upslope after a major coastal storm!

It was apocalyptic down here for sure, but not near 100". This winter in Randolph really will be beyond anything I have experienced over a long period of time (I have been at ski places in the NE and out west for huge storms before, but in a condo and never for a lengthy period).

There was one storm prior to the Feb HECS in late January. It snowed with temps in the lower 20s. It is often forgotten (for good reason), but it was an amazing teaser. We call it the "cold snow" storm. It was supposed to stay suppressed into NC and VA, but it drifted north. I think @ORH_wxman was one of the few mets banging the drum of the north trend.

But, yeah, basically this all can be summed up by average November through December in Randolph. haha

LOL you missed my posts a few posts up....I had just mentioned that one when you brought up coastal and I going into Midatlantic threads. I had said that one was one of my favorites...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53695-fall-banter-and-general-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=5657569

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I recall one of the posters in the Mid Atl forum saying they had a 55" depth, which is almost hard to believe in MD outside of Garret County.  But then again, we are talking Parrs Ridge which peaks through the clouds..lol.

I don't think I had higher than maybe low 30s as peak depth over the border in PA where I was living at the time. (Western Philly burbs)

That had to be a drift. We didn’t even have 55” in March 2001 in ORH county though some places did get close. 

I definitely believe 45” though. I mean some places did get 60”+ in those 2 weeks. But you’d probably need like 100” over the same period to reach a 55” depth. 

[Fozz]

19 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I recall one of the posters in the Mid Atl forum saying they had a 55" depth, which is almost hard to believe in MD outside of Garret County.  But then again, we are talking Parrs Ridge which peaks through the clouds..lol.

I don't think I had higher than maybe low 30s as peak depth over the border in PA where I was living at the time. (Western Philly burbs)

The whole winter, and especially that 12 day period from Jan 30 to Feb 10 was really hard to believe throughout the region. The Philly burbs were a bit warmer than central/northern MD in the second storm IIRC, since you were closer to the surface low, so ratios may have not been as crazy. Still very impressive totals.

Some people say that Snowmageddon was a once in a lifetime storm. I wouldn't agree about that one storm alone, since it was equalled by the super Nino blizzard of 2016. But that whole period of Feb 2010 with the two back to back HECS was truly one of a kind.

[backedgeapproaching]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That had to be a drift. We didn’t even have 55” in March 2001 in ORH county though some places did get close. 

I definitely believe 45” though. I mean some places did get 60”+ in those 2 weeks. But you’d probably need like 100” over the same period to reach a 55” depth. 

Yea l, agree. I found the post a few years back, I don't know where it is now, but I remember the person mentioning it wasn't a drift and it was "on the level" or something like that.