BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: GSP as of 5AM: “The remaining Watch areas will take longer to see accumulation reach any criteria, and with the potential for accumulations to go one way or the other, we have held off on upgrading there. These areas almost certainly will need an Advisory or Warning depending on where their final forecast total ends up.” They are seeing that the my Ptypes are going to be all over after fighting a slight warm nose. Calling for Good luck folks. The line will be fine for some in the foothills. Elevation is the name of the game. . Kind of surprised to see that. Especially parts of Henderson. I've got a few hundred feet on the town, fingers crossed! Need those clouds to start moving in. Made it down to 22 at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6Z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, BretWx said: Kind of surprised to see that. Especially parts of Henderson. I've got a few hundred feet on the town, fingers crossed! Need those clouds to start moving in. Made it down to 22 at the house. I have a feeling it will change. Honestly, this makes no sense with regard to warnings in N. Ga, yet watches literally right across the border in N.C. at HIGHER ELEVATIONS! Make it make sense? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I have a feeling it will change. Honestly, this makes no sense with regard to warnings in N. Ga, yet watches literally right across the border in N.C. at HIGHER ELEVATIONS! Make it make sense? I think we'll be upgraded by noon. HRRR keeps coming in a bit colder. Enjoying the ride. Live for days like this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I have a feeling it will change. Honestly, this makes no sense with regard to warnings in N. Ga, yet watches literally right across the border in N.C. at HIGHER ELEVATIONS! Make it make sense? I assume those will move towards a warning today. I also assume a watch could be used for Polk, Rutherford at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I have a feeling it will change. Honestly, this makes no sense with regard to warnings in N. Ga, yet watches literally right across the border in N.C. at HIGHER ELEVATIONS! Make it make sense? Keep in mind there could be differences in what constitutes a WSW vs a WWA between the forecast offices. GA only requires something like 2" of snow in 12 hours for a WSW (maybe a little more, can't remember). I've had plenty of WWA events up here that would have been warnings back home in GA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Well, it could be wrong, but the 3k NAM and the 6Z Euro both hammer Asheville and the surrounding mountain counties. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Well, it could be wrong, but the 3k NAM and the 6Z Euro both hammer Asheville and the surrounding mountain counties.A hammer will do nicely.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I seriously doubt AVL makes it to 46 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 39 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I have a feeling it will change. Honestly, this makes no sense with regard to warnings in N. Ga, yet watches literally right across the border in N.C. at HIGHER ELEVATIONS! Make it make sense? Keep in mind there could be differences in what constitutes a WSW vs a WWA between the forecast offices. GA only requires something like 2" of snow in 12 hours for a WSW (maybe a little more, can't remember). I've had plenty of WWA events up here that would have been warnings back home in GA. That could be it, but I thought the GSP had a uniform criteria for their area. Thanks for reminding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 06 NAM for KFQD Thats some heavy rates.. NAM Model Run: 6Z 7JAN 2021 Cloud base and tops are now agl HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 24 01/08 06Z 32 32 49 6 0.18 0.00 540 554 -0.8 -22.3 1017 100 +SN 011OVC222 0.6 -0.2 27 01/08 09Z 32 31 48 7 0.21 0.00 538 552 -0.9 -23.9 1017 100 -SN 013OVC176 1.7 3.8 30 01/08 12Z 32 31 40 9 0.06 0.00 539 552 -0.5 -23.5 1015 100 -RA 013OVC231 0.4 4.7 33 01/08 15Z 32 31 9 8 0.31 0.00 538 551 -2.7 -23.5 1016 100 SN 018OVC246 2.8 -0.1 36 01/08 18Z 32 31 356 8 0.48 0.00 537 549 -1.8 -23.9 1015 100 SN 016OVC247 4.6 0.0 39 01/08 21Z 36 33 10 6 0.14 0.00 539 550 -1.3 -23.3 1013 100 049OVC073 0.0 16.0 0NAM for KFQD 27 01/08 03Z 36 30 41 6 0.00 0.00 541 556 1.8 -23.3 1018 97 054BKN119 0.0 15.3 30 01/08 06Z 32 32 53 5 0.12 0.00 539 554 -1.2 -24.0 1018 99 SN 008OVC173 0.3 2.2 33 01/08 09Z 33 32 50 7 0.07 0.00 539 552 -1.0 -24.2 1016 100 -SN 007OVC183 0.4 8.9 36 01/08 12Z 32 31 43 9 0.07 0.00 538 552 -1.6 -23.8 1016 100 -SN 018OVC251 0.4 3.7 39 01/08 15Z 32 30 29 10 0.11 0.00 538 551 -0.9 -24.0 1015 100 -SN 028OVC249 1.0 3.2 42 01/08 18Z 32 31 354 8 0.16 0.00 538 550 -0.5 -24.0 1014 100 SN 026OVC249 1.3 0.6 45 01/08 21Z 34 33 360 5 0.26 0.00 539 550 -0.3 -23.4 1013 100 -SN 018OVC118 b 7.9 48 0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 06 NAM for KFQD Thats she heavy rates.. NAM Model Run: 6Z 7JAN 2021 Cloud base and tops are now agl HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 24 01/08 06Z 32 32 49 6 0.18 0.00 540 554 -0.8 -22.3 1017 100 +SN 011OVC222 0.6 -0.2 27 01/08 09Z 32 31 48 7 0.21 0.00 538 552 -0.9 -23.9 1017 100 -SN 013OVC176 1.7 3.8 30 01/08 12Z 32 31 40 9 0.06 0.00 539 552 -0.5 -23.5 1015 100 -RA 013OVC231 0.4 4.7 33 01/08 15Z 32 31 9 8 0.31 0.00 538 551 -2.7 -23.5 1016 100 SN 018OVC246 2.8 -0.1 36 01/08 18Z 32 31 356 8 0.48 0.00 537 549 -1.8 -23.9 1015 100 SN 016OVC247 4.6 0.0 39 01/08 21Z 36 33 10 6 0.14 0.00 539 550 -1.3 -23.3 1013 100 049OVC073 0.0 16.0 Where'd you pull this? (First time seeing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BretWx said: Where'd you pull this? (First time seeing) http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Just enter your airport code. That was from KFQD which is outside of Rutherfordton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Maggie Ace said: 24 and very frosty across Maggie this morning. We will need to monitor the meso banding depicted by the various meso lending guidance as we near this evening. Some of those short term high resolution models are hinting rates that could exceed 2 inch per hour snowfall with thundersnow. Enjoy the show gang! sure do. Between HR 32-36 on the NAM looks to be when it swings through this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 59 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I have a feeling it will change. Honestly, this makes no sense with regard to warnings in N. Ga, yet watches literally right across the border in N.C. at HIGHER ELEVATIONS! Make it make sense? N. Georgia warning criteria is totally different than NC counties..2" of Snow is a warning in some of those counties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I love the day before a decent storm. Good luck everyone. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, BretWx said: Not loving that snow hole for Hendersonville. Does that French broad river valley downslope typically stretch that far? I know Asheville proper struggles mightily with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BretWx said: That really highlights the south mountain range upper Rutherford, Cleveland and lower Burke. wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Does that French broad river valley downslope typically stretch that far? I know Asheville proper struggles mightily with it. I'll let others speak to that. Haven't seen it. December 2018 had 16 at the house, AVL reported 10. Not the same setup of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Latest HRRR is much better than previous runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Does that French broad river valley downslope typically stretch that far? I know Asheville proper struggles mightily with it. No it usually doesn’t as there aren’t many high enough peaks around HVL to cause such. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR in line with the 3K for my neck of the woods, showing between 4-5 inches. Lock it in! I’m good with that after almost no snow the last 2 years in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12k NAM - grain of salt, etc etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Hi Res Nam is concerning for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Worst run so far so close to game time...not good. barely 2 inches here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR showing precip trying to squeak into the southern mountains by 5-6PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: That could be it, but I thought the GSP had a uniform criteria for their area. Thanks for reminding me. We're definitely not at warning criteria here in Rabun, GSP just issued the warning in cooperation with the Atlanta office to avoid confusion. So I am under a WSW with a forecast of less than a half inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GSP upgraded to a warning. * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts on eastern and southern facing mountain slopes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 HiRes nam is concerning and is a big shift from prior runs. Went from 7 inches at my location at 6z to nearly nothing in the lee side dry slot. Hopefully it reverts at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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