BretWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 The NAM looks really good but also don't forget about the upslope component with this type storm also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Nam is an absolute crushjob wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 So we have the NAM, EURO, and HRRR all in the same boat. I think those are good odds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Nam is an absolute crushjob wowYes it is. I doubt I'm getting the foot that it's showing up here. I'd take half that and be happy (might be more realisitic). I'm sitting at 30.5" since 12/1. I had 43" for the entire season last year. Just might eclipse that in the next few weeks. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Former WLOS met: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Jason basically taking the NWS stance. Lol. https://www.facebook.com/jasonboyerweather/posts/249873693170758 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I think I've settled on the Cashiers, NC area either at 3150' or 3800'. Not trying to get stuck on a mountain past Saturday but I guess the extra elevation would help haha. I'll make a final decision overnight Please keep the ZR away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 18Z GFS finally jumped on board. 4-8in for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, BretWx said: 18Z GFS finally jumped on board. 4-8in for most. It’s amazing how bad the GFS has become. Guess that’s why it’s getting replaced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It’s amazing how bad the GFS has become. Guess that’s why it’s getting replaced. The GFS has been bad since it was created to be honest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, jrips27 said: I think I've settled on the Cashiers, NC area either at 3150' or 3800'. Not trying to get stuck on a mountain past Saturday but I guess the extra elevation would help haha. I'll make a final decision overnight Please keep the ZR away Highlands, NC. Over 4k feet. You can stay and walk to all your food and stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GFS v16 snow amounts differ greatly from current operational gfs. Will be interested to compare results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Still not sure what to think about this storm. Model trends looked good day for my neck of the woods in Burke but good lord I can’t even count how many times this same setup has burnt me in WNC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Still not sure what to think about this storm. Model trends looked good day for my neck of the woods in Burke but good lord I can’t even count how many times this same setup has burnt me in WNC. It’s a really close setup. I’ve seen many deform bands on models before that never really panned out. Down this way if we don’t get the heavy rates we’re gonna struggle with mixing issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GSP updated for the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ward only has me at 1-3 in the foothills but 6 to 10 in Asheville. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 I saw were the 18z Euro looked great for all of us once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I saw were the 18z Euro looked great for all of us once again. Where can you access it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Where can you access it? I cannot but Holston posted it over in the Tennessee ull thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ward only has me at 1-3 in the foothills but 6 to 10 in Asheville. We'll see.Might have to adjust that a bit tomorrow. Such a tough forecast. Here’s the 18z Euro.. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Might have to adjust that a bit tomorrow. Such a tough forecast. Here’s the 18z Euro..No doubt it’s a tough one! Loving the Increase down here in Rutherford on this run! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Hvward said: Might have to adjust that a bit tomorrow. Such a tough forecast. Here’s the 18z Euro. . Thanks for the post Ward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, Hvward said: Might have to adjust that a bit tomorrow. Such a tough forecast. Here’s the 18z Euro. . Temps may be an issue here but I think we are in a prime spot for heavy precip with the flow direction. I'm sure there will be some surprises with this storm good and bad. I don't think your forecast is bad just think Asheville may have slightly less precip especially with this type of flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 0z HRRR pounds the SW mountains. Widespread 5-9 up the border counties though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR has burned me so many times down in CLT I can’t trust it. But damn if I don’t want to, Haywood is the jackpot on that map. Over a foot at my house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 0z HRRR pounds the SW mountains. Widespread 5-9 up the border counties though. Yeah according to this map I jackpot with over a foot. Fun to look at but im not buying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: HRRR has burned me so many times down in CLT I can’t trust it. But damn if I don’t want to, Haywood is the jackpot on that map. Over a foot at my house. Lol I just mentioned that. The whole county gets hammered! I'll be doing some heavy trolling in the other thread! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6z backed off a good bit. 6z NAM actually tries to end as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GSP as of 5AM:“The remaining Watch areas will take longer to see accumulation reach any criteria, and with the potential for accumulations to go one way or the other, we have held off on upgrading there. These areas almost certainly will need an Advisory or Warning depending on where their final forecast total ends up.”They are seeing that the my Ptypes are going to be all over after fighting a slight warm nose. Calling for Good luck folks. The line will be fine for some in the foothills. Elevation is the name of the game. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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