BretWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yeah the issue I have is the inconsistency of the models. Usually they will latch onto something and stick with that. Maybe today is that day but the NAM has been consistently good for us but I dont want to just take the best look for us and say thats what its going to do. Hopefully we will see some kind of agreement today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yeah, and it's spitting out 16+ inches in NE NC on the clown maps. Something is up. Onto the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Im suspect anytime a models spits out huge numbers like that. Shoot how many times have we been burnt? I know I sound pessimistic but heck im as excited as yall are but I want to be sure of whats coming. Again no pipe dreams here only concrete meteorology. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3k NAM says someone better rent one of those yurts in DuPont.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Met1985 said: Im suspect anytime a models spits out huge numbers like that. Shoot how many times have we been burnt? I know I sound pessimistic but heck im as excited as yall are but I want to be sure of whats coming. Again no pipe dreams here only concrete meteorology. Agreed. I still think a 4-6 call is solid for most. Hell, I am most excited about just watching it fall during the day. Going to be a good one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Hello Nam. Of course we are still throwing darts here. Need a solid trend across the models today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 It's nice that most of the short range and Hi Res models have nice solutions for us, I will say that. But until some globals beef up totals I agree with Met 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: 3k NAM says someone better rent one of those yurts in DuPont.... See this is what I don't understand is some of those holes in the SW mountains should be getting a lot more than it shows. Maybe something is up with the algorithm but this map looks off to me.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Met1985 said: Im suspect anytime a models spits out huge numbers like that. Shoot how many times have we been burnt? I know I sound pessimistic but heck im as excited as yall are but I want to be sure of whats coming. Again no pipe dreams here only concrete meteorology. While I agree, there has been a consistent storm signal for WNC. Amounts vary, but accumulating snow has been shown, run after run....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: While I agree, there has been a consistent storm signal for WNC. Amounts vary, but accumulating snow has been shown, run after run....... Oh yeah ill agree there is definitely a storm signal especially for us. Its just frustrating to see how the models seem to be struggling with how much and where. Like I said maybe today things get ironed out finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: See this is what I don't understand is some of those holes in the SW mountains should be getting a lot more than it shows. Maybe something is up with the algorithm but this map looks off to me.. elevation issues and cold air not fully making it to the valley floor. I'd be surprised to see Bryson and the likes pick up more than 1 - 2". It also hurts there position related to upslope/downslope flow off the escarpment and highlands plateau. Those valleys are the some of the most sheltered valleys around. Heck, Cullowhee in particular is one of the largest, deepest valleys in the Appalachians, surrounded by 5 - 6k foot ridgelines on every side but a sliver going through Sylva. For Haywood, the northern portion the county will not get as much as those south of town going up 215 in the first round but the backend NW flow should make up for this. Maybe another downslope issue? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 By the way, thanks @Met1985 for being the voice of reason for this event! It's so easy to get excited and your reminders are helpful. @BlueRidgeFolklore, your spot is a tough call for us. Sort of a battle ground between elevation and higher precip rates. Are you up 276 at all (above the town's elevation of 2100')? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: See this is what I don't understand is some of those holes in the SW mountains should be getting a lot more than it shows. Maybe something is up with the algorithm but this map looks off to me.. Not if this becomes a predominantly upslope/downslope compounded event. Not much different than we see with NWF and snow holes on the leeward side of the of the TN/NC line. I expect the southern escarpment and the higher peaks to wring out the most moisture, and for there to be some lower totals within. I think some of the blue in Haywood County is due to downsloping from the Balsams from a storm of this setup. We shall see but I don't see anything inherently glaring from the 3k map that says we should toss. I am not expecting a foot of snow in those favored areas, but I do think they are favored areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I think really the only model not showing significant accumulations is the GFS and well, there’s a reason it’s getting replaced next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yeah good stuff fellas. All great reasons and great discussion on here. Well we will see how things pan out today and early tomorrow morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said: @BlueRidgeFolklore, your spot is a tough call for us. Sort of a battle ground between elevation and higher precip rates. Are you up 276 at all (above the town's elevation of 2100')? No I am not, that is all public land up 276 from my side of the Parkway. I haven't seen anything in the models to indicate that moisture or temp will be an issue in Transylvania. Obviously being higher helps. My expectations are not on the totals the models are spitting out but I do fully expect accumulating snow as the signal on the models is too strong to expect otherwise. The 64 corridor from Highlands to Hendersonville has consistently been shown as a good spot for this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: No I am not, that is all public land up 276 from my side of the Parkway. I haven't seen anything in the models to indicate that moisture or temp will be an issue in Transylvania. Obviously being higher helps. My expectations are not on the totals the models are spitting out but I do fully expect accumulating snow as the signal on the models is too strong to expect otherwise. The 64 corridor from Highlands to Hendersonville has consistently been shown as a good spot for this storm. How far are you from where 281 forks in little Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: The 64 corridor from Highlands to Hendersonville has consistently been shown as a good spot for this storm. Correct and it "should" based on current model forecast, cash in greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looking at the Kuchera ratio is more realistic and personally, I feel is still too high, but I think the areas shown are the favored areas. Red circle is the highest elevation along the southern escarpment and will wring out plenty of moisture. Green circles on the map are the French Broad River Valley and the Pigeon River Gorge. Asheville is notorious for being a victim of downsloping in this setup. It's the same reason why it tends to be the driest area in NC and Transylvania county the wettest. Those Balsam Mountains are just a bear to overcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: How far are you from where 281 forks in little Canada? I can be in Balsam Grove in roughly 30min, Little Canada is further. I expect that area to do really good.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Morning folks, I’m still liking this set up for you. As always there’s the winners & losers aspect to it. Sometimes it helps to read different discos besides GSP. I’m not going to clog the thread with a giant copy & paste but if you have a minute, read MOB’s overnight and you’ll get a good idea of the downstream side of the system and what’s feeding your areas. Good luck to all!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I think I'm in a pretty good spot for this one. I've got a few hundred feet on Hendersonville (Stony Mountain) which always helps a bit. Facing east though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I hope to see a lot more of y'all cashing in this week. Especially the ones that got screwed all of last winter like@wncsnow. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Which is more accurate? 12K Nam or 3K Nam? 12 K Nam looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natbright Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 My area (Cruso/South Haywood) looks like it might do pretty well here. Maybe I won't be so envious of the Northern part of the county this time Its interesting - this is teaching me a little about the type of setup that works for where I am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, natbright said: My area (Cruso/South Haywood) looks like it might do pretty well here. Maybe I won't be so envious of the Northern part of the county this time Its interesting - this is teaching me a little about the type of setup that works for where I am. Nice to have another Haywood resident on here and yes I agree usually from central to southern Haywood does great in these type situations thats why I dont understand the snow hole that is being shown on some of the models. But non the less im going with my gut feeling and just knowing these mountains a lot better than some model... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Hey y’all! I’m pondering chasing this storm up in the southern mountains somewhere. Probably somewhere on the 64 corridor Look at one of these - cashiers- lake toxaway - brevard- Hendersonville Thought I would turn to the local experts. Any advice in places that usually do good in these type of set ups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 That’s Highlands-Cashiers-Glenville area would be my spot. Might be able to snag a Airbnb in Glenville on the lake or with views of the lake. Highest elevation “big” lake on the East Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, WxKnurd said: That’s Highlands-Cashiers-Glenville area would be my spot. Might be able to snag a Airbnb in Glenville on the lake or with views of the lake. Highest elevation “big” lake on the East Coast. Yep what he said lol. I was thinking the same thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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