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2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread


Met1985
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The deeper valleys in SW NC have me worried about lower totals and the escarpment is also an interesting curveball (higher totals with upslope). Could end up being a Southern Highlands Plateau special for our neck of the woods. 

Early back of the envelope forecast for most of SW NC (populated areas) is 2 - 4" but we are holding off on our SNOWCAST map till later this afternoon; even then it might be premature. 

The NW flow locations should do great either way. 

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The low just seems to be void of a really moisture wrapped system... This is why I said I would wait until Tuesday to really look at things. I've been down this road several times but the trends with the global models have not been great. Saying that we need to see how things play out and keep a level head.

Not to mention when was the last time the models got precip in the NW quadrant right? I certainly don't remember.

 

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Happy New Year folks! Hope you don’t mind but I’m butting in on your thread. I like the potential set up that’s lurking for you. Lot’s of changes upcoming but if you look at synoptics & historical model biases. I think this could have the makings of a decent southern low pressure snowfall. Might not be be a gigantic event but it’s caught my eye!


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2 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Happy New Year folks! Hope you don’t mind but I’m butting in on your thread. I like the potential set up that’s lurking for you. Lot’s of changes upcoming but if you look at synoptics & historical model biases. I think this could have the makings of a decent southern low pressure snowfall. Might not be be a gigantic event but it’s caught my eye!


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Its acceptable for anyone who used to have the moniker AshevilleDon to butt in on the mountain thread :)

Happy New Year back at you!  About 4 to 6" is my sweet spot for a good snow storm; hopefully we will be in the range in Avl.  I don't want to worry about trees coming down and power outages.  I experienced the blizzard of 93; it was awesome but don't need to see that again.

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48 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The overnight models dont really impress me with this storm.  The GFS looks very moisture starved to me, the NAM looks decent and the euro has cut back on totals a lot. Again to me not good signs if you are looking for a big snow fellas.

Give me a couple of inches, and I will call it a win. Anything is gravy after last year. :)

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The overnight models dont really impress me with this storm.  The GFS looks very moisture starved to me, the NAM looks decent and the euro has cut back on totals a lot. Again to me not good signs if you are looking for a big snow fellas.

Not a widespread even but could put up some locally high numbers along the southern mountains. I think areas like Balsam Gove could see upwards of 6".

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The overnight models dont really impress me with this storm.  The GFS looks very moisture starved to me, the NAM looks decent and the euro has cut back on totals a lot. Again to me not good signs if you are looking for a big snow fellas.

Better check the 06Z Euro. And take the GFS out when you take the trash out this morning. 

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Been keeping an eye on models and everyone’s thoughts.  Working up in Kingsport so gotta make the tricky drives over Sam’s Gap, through the Newfound Mtns and then the final one up to the house so trying to figure out if I need to head out Thursday night or if I’ll actually be able to work a few hours Friday.  At least it’s all major Highway. All depends first on timing and then on amount, I’d rather drive when it’s clear and then get dumped on or navigate 1-2” of snow while I’m driving instead of driving during a paste bomb.  Figuring 3-6” at the house is probably a good call.  Southern Haywood on the rim of the Great Balsams looks to get raked.

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Trends are not great here,  short range models are getting closer and closer to being a mix or just rain here with the delayed timing. My expectation is less than 2 inches now for foothill areas unless you have some elevation then 3 to 4 is possible. 

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14 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Been keeping an eye on models and everyone’s thoughts.  Working up in Kingsport so gotta make the tricky drives over Sam’s Gap, through the Newfound Mtns and then the final one up to the house so trying to figure out if I need to head out Thursday night or if I’ll actually be able to work a few hours Friday.  At least it’s all major Highway. All depends first on timing and then on amount, I’d rather drive when it’s clear and then get dumped on or navigate 1-2” of snow while I’m driving instead of driving during a paste bomb.  Figuring 3-6” at the house is probably a good call.  Southern Haywood on the rim of the Great Balsams looks to get raked.

 

A Southwest Special indeed. The Southern Highlands Plateau to the Great Balsams and most of southern Haywood should do really well. We're sticking to our snowcast map from yesterday and will narrow the ranges some, but your 3 - 6" for Balsam call is what I'm telling my friend up Chad Crawford. 

If you're jonesing for snow and want to ride it out cabin style, the Highlands - Cashiers - Lake Toxaway corridor will be the easiest setup. Just be safe out there!

One of the things I'll be watching with this event is the front and back end snowfalls. I wonder if the Smokies will win out for highest totals compared to say Richland Balsam (or anywhere along the Great Balsams) bc of NW flow on the backside, but alas, we'll may never know the totals up and along the Great Balsams with so little observations. 

I work for a non profit that manages the Shining Rock and Middle Prong Wilderness Areas and will reach out to our ranger to see if they can give us data/pics from their daily walkabout. 

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3 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said:

 

A Southwest Special indeed. The Southern Highlands Plateau to the Great Balsams and most of southern Haywood should do really well. We're sticking to our snowcast map from yesterday and will narrow the ranges some, but your 3 - 6" for Balsam call is what I'm telling my friend up Chad Crawford. 

If you're jonesing for snow and want to ride it out cabin style, the Highlands - Cashiers - Lake Toxaway corridor will be the easiest setup. Just be safe out there!

One of the things I'll be watching with this event is the front and back end snowfalls. I wonder if the Smokies will win out for highest totals compared to say Richland Balsam (or anywhere along the Great Balsams) bc of NW flow on the backside, but alas, we'll may never know the totals up and along the Great Balsams with so little observations. 

I work for a non profit that manages the Shining Rock and Middle Prong Wilderness Areas and will reach out to our ranger to see if they can give us data/pics from their daily walkabout. 

Depending on how crazy I feel I might take a LONG hike on Saturday up to a hunting spot I never made it to this season in that area between Richland and Balsam off the parkway. Sits above 5000’.  Lots of vert gain from the valley floor outside Cullowhee to the top so we will see, if I do I’ll take some pics and get some measurements.  I think a 4” storm total is our highest at our house since we moved here in Feb of ‘19, so I’m hoping to finally break that at some point this season.  Feel confident it happens by Tuesday next week but we will see. Still wanting a double digit storm too sooner rather than later lol. 

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3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Depending on how crazy I feel I might take a LONG hike on Saturday up to a hunting spot I never made it to this season in that area between Richland and Balsam off the parkway. Sits above 5000’.  Lots of vert gain from the valley floor outside Cullowhee to the top so we will see, if I do I’ll take some pics and get some measurements.  I think a 4” storm total is our highest at our house since we moved here in Feb of ‘19, so I’m hoping to finally break that at some point this season.  Feel confident it happens by Tuesday next week but we will see. Still wanting a double digit storm too sooner rather than later lol. 

I feel you on the double digit desire. For me, the cutoff for a good snow storm is covering the blades of grass. Used to be 2 - 3" but now our house sits on pasture land so our grass is much taller now, lol, pushing our "good snow" cutoff to about 4 - 6". 

Gonna take a stab and guess where your spot is. Would it be up Caney near Rough Butt Bald or perhaps Piney Mtn? Not trying to uncover your honey hole, just curious being the GIS geek I am. 

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