Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Cut the totals in half or even a third in some places and you still have WSW criteria. It's the NAM even a third might be generous. It wildly overstates upslope precip totals in most events. Did the same thing a couple years ago with a similar system.The HRRR is probably more on the right track with its total qpf of .6 or so for the favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: It's the NAM even a third might be generous. It wildly overstates upslope precip totals in most events. Did the same thing a couple years ago with a similar system. The HRRR is probably more on the right track with its total qpf of .6 or so for the favored areas. The NAM underwent an upgrade a couple years back and since has actually been on the dryer end of quite a few events. Not saying it’s right here but that bias thankfully was almost completely eliminated in that upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ice is beautiful but that much you can tell your power bye for a week or more. Really unless yall want to live like your camping you want that cold air to be thicker so its more sleet or for the cold to erode away quickly. These systems though are hard to nail down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If you like significant ice storms, the trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 No bueno. That small icing event we had in 2019 brought down one of my favorite trees in the yard. It was barely even .2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Some cool pics from this morning. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Worth noting the RGEM also keeps the part of the northern escarpment up towards Boone below freezing for the entire event. Changes to snow at the end. 1/2-3/4" of QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Worth noting the RGEM also keeps the part of the northern escarpment up towards Boone below freezing for the entire event. Changes to snow at the end. 1/2-3/4" of QPF. I could see that happening. Around Boone north could just get decimated by ice then upslope behind as the system pulls NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I could see that happening. Around Boone north could just get decimated by ice then upslope behind as the system pulls NE.Yeah looks like both the RGEM and NAM keep the 221 corridor from Newland north in the hot seat. HRRR is colder and would be some great sleet-sledding weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I could see that happening. Around Boone north could just get decimated by ice then upslope behind as the system pulls NE. Yeah looks like both the RGEM and NAM keep the 221 corridor from Newland north in the hot seat. HRRR is colder and would be some great sleet-sledding weather. Yeah for sure. Eyewall has some thoughts about the latent heating also that could cut things down a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 At the 11th hour, euro finally fully onboard now. Actually keeps the east facing areas as all frozen throughout event now as either freezing rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: At the 11th hour, euro finally fully onboard now. Actually keeps the east facing areas as all frozen throughout event now as either freezing rain or snow. I noticed that it was colder in the upper levels for the mountains too, close to being all snow and sleet for Mitchell County up to Watauga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I noticed that it was colder in the upper levels for the mountains too, close to being all snow and sleet for Mitchell County up to Watauga Yes it is. I’d love to avoid that freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yeah for sure. Eyewall has some thoughts about the latent heating also that could cut things down a lot.Yeah my only problem with that, for the mountains, is that the Boone area starts off in the upper-20s from what I've seen. Possibly a little cooler than that in the prime CAD areas. Off the mountain the totals definitely won't be as catastrophic as the NAM more than likely but I could see the northern mountain areas raking in a half inch of ice if things play out right. Personally I'm good with a 33 and rain day over any zr. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Its a ways out but both the GFS and euro have a significant trough moving in around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 HRRR & NAM came in colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: Personally I'm good with a 33 and rain day over any zr. My sentiments exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Seized the opportunity to take a pre-storm ride on the closed Blue Ridge Parkway; there were still a few small ice patches this afternoon but absolutely beautiful day! Would not want to be on it tomorrow morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Gonna get some good radiational cooling here. Already dipped down to 40 and mostly clear still 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sundog in Boone today! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Gonna get some good radiational cooling here. Already dipped down to 40 and mostly clear still Yep was just going to post im already down to 31 this late afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It's dropping fast, we may make a run at the 20s before clouds roll in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Down to 36.9 here in Dry Fork!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 29 here on Rittle Peak just east of Elk Knob.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elev3999 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 34.9 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Down to 34.5, dropping quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 39 here and dropping quick in Burke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Only 36.1 here. I'm usually to far west for CAD to really effect us. I can't remember the last time I saw freezing rain here. Some sleet at times but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 32.7 here. Dropped 13 degrees in 2.5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: 32.7 here. Dropped 13 degrees in 2.5 hours The weather channel app says its 36 in Dry Fork. My Weather Station says 33.3 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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