snowbird1230 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 44 minutes ago, Phelps said: Not to skip over today's event but any chance the Wednesday storm could be snow for the highest elevations? We've got a gulf low tracking up the coast and some cold air nearby. Just glancing at the global though and it doesn't look cold enough. Can't tell how close we are to something good. Close but yet so far away.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 36 degress here with a misty snow blowing in. The wind is ripping as wncsnow alluded to. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looking good headed into first couple weeks of January. Think we will have chances to score big. Much improved from last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Yeah yall go read what Griteater has put up in the mid range thread. Its a great read and has some solid merrit to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I have sn/ip down to my office at 3100 in Wolf now. Yes, I even enjoy the novelty stuff. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 36 degress here with a misty snow blowing in. The wind is ripping as wncsnow alluded to.Nothing like a good old fashioned flizzard day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, Buckethead said: I have sn/ip down to my office at 3100 in Wolf now. Yes, I even enjoy the novelty stuff. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Same here. Temps holding at 32 with sizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Tyler Penland said: 3 hours ago, Met1985 said: 36 degress here with a misty snow blowing in. The wind is ripping as wncsnow alluded to. Nothing like a good old fashioned flizzard day. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Obviously the CAD regions in the area look to at least get some ice and mixed precipitation on the front end of this thing. Its hard to tell how long the cold air will hang onto those locations. I fully expect that all will change to rain then we get wrap around upslope snow for the favored areas. This would be an awesome snowstorm for us if we just had the cold air. Looks like we are going to get another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.... Just add to the 2 foot surplus we already have.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Obviously the CAD regions in the area look to at least get some ice and mixed precipitation on the front end of this thing. Its hard to tell how long the cold air will hang onto those locations. I fully expect that all will change to rain then we get wrap around upslope snow for the favored areas. This would be an awesome snowstorm for us if we just had the cold air. Looks like we are going to get another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.... Just add to the 2 foot surplus we already have....I lived way too close to the Party Rock/ Lake Lure wildfire a few years ago. There's worse things than a huge rainfall surplus. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buckethead said: I lived way too close to the Party Rock/ Lake Lure wildfire a few years ago. There's worse things than a huge rainfall surplus. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk After multiple years of excess rain and raining or the threat of rain every day throughout this past summer, I have thought that a dry spell would be nice. But in the back of my mind it has always been be careful what you wish for. Party Rock/Lake Lure and Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge...wasn't that long ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It's the long range HRRR but I have seen a few models showing a changeover to snow before ending for the mountains and adjacent foothills. Could be totally bogus but worth a mention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Moonhowl said: After multiple years of excess rain and raining or the threat of rain every day throughout this past summer, I have thought that a dry spell would be nice. But in the back of my mind it has always been be careful what you wish for. Party Rock/Lake Lure and Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge...wasn't that long ago. Just like all the ones here in macon county the Gatlinburg fire was arson. Living in the southern mtns 80-100 inches of rain every year gets old!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 37 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's the long range HRRR but I have seen a few models showing a changeover to snow before ending for the mountains and adjacent foothills. Could be totally bogus but worth a mention. I think this backside changeover has some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Best snow of the day happening right now here on Beech. Everything has a nice coating. Maybe 1/4 to 1/2 inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think this backside changeover has some merit. Looks like it's snow for most of the storm to me. Very interesting. HRRR not known for running cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Best snow of the day happening right now here on Beech. Everything has a nice coating. Maybe 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Yeah just came down from Banner Elk and it was coming down solid. Roads starting to get covered a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well, first WSW of the season from Blacksburg for MBY. Greenville just with a WWA for the rest of the area;. Should be a pretty interesting day tomorrow. HRRR showing a solid dry slot and is much lower in precip totals overall than the NAM (surprise, surprise). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 I like what GSP put out. The models have kind of been up and down. At least put an advisory up to let everyone know hey things may get dicey. Which they did. If things deteriorate they can always upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: I like what GSP put out. The models have kind of been up and down. At least put an advisory up to let everyone know hey things may get dicey. Which they did. If things deteriorate they can always upgrade. I agree I think it was a great approach from them. These cad setups are so tricky to forecast. Just go ahead and give everyone a heads up that’s there potential. I’m still shocked they put an advisory up for Macon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Some on the east facing side is going to get clocked with a significant ice storm. Don’t think it’s going to be a huge area but the closer you are to the blue ridge parkway and the divide, the better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 43 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Some on the east facing side is going to get clocked with a significant ice storm. Don’t think it’s going to be a huge area but the closer you are to the blue ridge parkway and the divide, the better chance. I'm afraid of that too. The new NAM suggests it but the HRRR think we get a heavy dose of sleet. I have seen models overdo zr and underdo sleet in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm afraid of that too. The new NAM suggests it but the HRRR think we get a heavy dose of sleet. I have seen models overdo zr and underdo sleet in these setups. Yes definitely. I’m just afraid the NAM may not be done trending colder and for longer. We gotta hope like you said that it’s more of a sleet fest or it’s going to be lights out, literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yes definitely. I’m just afraid the NAM may not be done trending colder and for longer. We gotta hope like you said that it’s more of a sleet fest or it’s going to be lights out, literally. The wet ground surely isn't going to help if we get heavy accrual on trees... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ummmmmm the Hi Res NAM says 1.61 of freezing rain at Boone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12Z NAM came in a bit colder. Showing .30 - .70 ZR for the favored areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ummmmmm the Hi Res NAM says 1.61 of freezing rain at Boone That’s a ton of it happens.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM is lights out along escarpment in NW NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yeah, even 12Z HRRR showing .5 - .6 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: NAM is lights out along escarpment in NW NC Cut the totals in half or even a third in some places and you still have WSW criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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