Met1985 Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just a quick glance from both 12z suites from the euro and GFS we would be looking at multiple NW flow opportunities for the mountains. Would be great for the ski resorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just a quick glance from both 12z suites from the euro and GFS we would be looking at multiple NW flow opportunities for the mountains. Would be great for the ski resorts.I know Wolf Ridge has been planning on opening next week. Looks like perfect timing! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just now, Buckethead said: I know Wolf Ridge has been planning on opening next week. Looks like perfect timing! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yep sure does and cold, very cold for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Super breezy at the house today. Noticed a couple buds on my Catawba rhododendron in the yard trying to pop out. Guess it thought we were skipping winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Yes. Let the winter season begin! DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A vigorous upper low will bring high amounts of moisture and cold air to the region Sunday through Tuesday. Rainfall is expected to change over to snow across the western mountains of North Carolina early Monday and continue into Tuesday. Elevations above 3500 feet could receive a few to several inches of snow by daybreak Tuesday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Not saying the setup is the same here (maybe it is I don't know) but this feels a bit like last year right after Thanksgiving. That event underperformed and set the tone for the season. Maybe this year will be different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Happy Thanksgiving you guys! Among the things I'm thankful for is our little group. We have a good thing here and I hope it stays the same for years to come. Oh, and I'm thankful for having something to track too. That's nice as well. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2020 Author Share Posted November 26, 2020 Happy Thanksgiving mountain peeps and everyone else who ventures in our thread. Yes we have a great group here and thankfully we have something to track. I hope everyone has a wonderful day and over eats! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Models have seemed to trend less and less snow next week from first system and may be another heavy rain with 2nd 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Models have seemed to trend less and less snow next week from first system and may be another heavy rain with 2nd Dont say that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Ensembles for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Trends are away from anything meaningful in the valleys(over 1"). High elevations are going to get a couple of inches from the first NWF Monday night, but models are holding back that second piece of energy. Looks like more of a Friday night-Saturday time frame if anything were to happen. Still a lot can change, but these are not trends that favor a strong southeast snowstorm unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Happy Belated Thanksgiving everyone! Looking forward to our first round of measurable snow this year. If it doesn't pan out like we hope (even a decent NW flow event), we'll fire up the snow guns at the house on Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Happy Belated Thanksgiving everyone! Looking forward to our first round of measurable snow this year. If it doesn't pan out like we hope (even a decent NW flow event), we'll fire up the snow guns at the house on Tuesday. Looking forward to the pictures man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Models trending away from snow and cold? Preposterous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Models trending away from snow and cold? Preposterous! In all honesty I don't know if I would trust GFS. Since it has convective issues. Very evident especially with the second system for later next week. Each run been changing. Cant speak about Euro. But the Canadian does have a cold bias. But its alot wetter than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Models trending away from snow and cold? Preposterous! lol. What were they thinking.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 Really there is so much energy racing around that we may not get a clear picture of that second system intil like 2 to 3 days from the time it will affect us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 Also make no mistake about it. The cold air will be around and is coming. Its just getting moisture and cold to link up over us. Is this any different than other storms? No, this is also very early in the season. Let it play out. There are a lot of moving parts with all this currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Also make no mistake about it. The cold air will be around and is coming. Its just getting moisture and cold to link up over us. Is this any different than other storms? No, this is also very early in the season. Let it play out. There are a lot of moving parts with all this currently. You right about that. But looking at h5 the Nam and Canadian closely resembles vs the Gfs for the 1st system. Lagging engery over the NW for the second system. But I'm wishing you mountain folks the best. This last decade has been feast or famine. I hope yall get buried this year and looking forward to the pictures. Long overdue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 I'm just dreading the 2 to 4 inches of rain in the next week. I honestly could use a few weeks of cold, dry, nw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 My NWS forecast beginning tomorrow afternoon: rain to snow, back to rain, then back to snow. I'm hoping one of us can get under the GL fetch they mention Monday night in the AFD. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Hoping that the ULL can bring everyone a nice snow shower or two on Monday night or Tuesday morning. Looking at the second storm that will affect WNC late this week and into the weekend, this one is really interesting. There is really no model agreement at this point as to the timing on when the ULL will move through. There is also a Gulf Low that is throwing another wrench in the gears. Overnight Euro shows WNC being able to take advantage of the exiting 50/50 low to our Northeast, and some overrunning precipitation produces scattered snow showers Friday Morning. Then as the ULL begins to capture the GL and deepen, a deformation feature develops on the backside and hammers WNC with frozen precipitation as Omega crashes aloft. This all happens with temps that are very borderline, but heavy precip seems to overcome on the 0z model run. In fact the control on the 0z EPS gave WNC 5" of snow. The GFS is similar with the deepening of the low pressure, but is slower with the ULL and the GL turns into a Noreaster. It seems there is a window of possibility for snow Friday into Saturday if the ULL can capture the low in the Gulf. CMC is slower with the ULL as well right now, so we will see. What does appear likely is another thump of snow for those above 3500'. This will be a good week for high elevation folk. Enjoy! 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 I'm haven't looked at the rest of the models yet, but I'm gonna guess right now that the 3km Nam is an outlier lol. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, Buckethead said: I'm haven't looked at the rest of the models yet, but I'm gonna guess right now that the 3km Nam is an outlier lol. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Lol possibly. This thing is going to be interesting. We go from cold air wrapping around into the mountains from were the flow is from the sw in the low levels then we change up to a NW flow. This has turned out to be what I expected. Primarily an upslope event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Winter Storm Watch hoisted for the Mountains. Surprised to see the totals being forecast...4 to 8 with isolated higher amounts to a foot. 1 to 3 in the Valley now in the forecast. I'm so hesitant to get my hopes up after that December storm last year but seeing those totals boosted my confidence for sure.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Clouds definitely have that snow look to them today. Hope everybody cashes in from a good Lakes fetch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 Really im not surprised by this. Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville, and Stecoah 257 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible at high elevations, with event totals of generally 4 to 8 inches, and isolated spots of 12 inches. Valleys and downslope areas may only see 1 to 3 inches total. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina. * WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 This is really going to favor those prone upslope spots for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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