cold air aloft Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 4:34 PM, Met1985 said: This is really how I feel and this winter has been textbook with showing us CAD does not work here. Expand I agree, like you and WxKnurd, I have a hard time seeing believing much (if any) ZR occurs in the central to western zones of Haywood County based on all my years of living here. I can't tell you how many times I have left work in Canton with temps in the 20's with ice to get home to Maggie Valley and find temps in the mid 40's with just rain. Once you get west of Clyde, the WAA usually erodes the CAD in these type of set ups. And yet....... I have to say I have rarely seen pretty good model consensus like we have now showing some sort of ice event for the majority of Haywood County. GSP seems fairly bullish as well. It'll be interesting to see how the event plays out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 5:14 PM, WxKnurd said: I’m just not getting what the models are seeing, about all want to put ice down in Haywood and I just don’t get it. Expand A lot of models want to drop some ice down in Macon county and I don’t see it happening either maybe will be surprised. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 5:14 PM, WxKnurd said: I’m just not getting what the models are seeing, about all want to put ice down in Haywood and I just don’t get it. Expand On 2/17/2021 at 5:15 PM, cold air aloft said: I agree, like you and WxKnurd, I have a hard time seeing believing much (if any) ZR occurs in the central to western zones of Haywood County based on all my years of living here. I can't tell you how many times I have left work in Canton with temps in the 20's with ice to get home to Maggie Valley and find temps in the mid 40's with just rain. Once you get west of Clyde, the WAA usually erodes the CAD in these type of set ups. And yet....... I have to say I have rarely seen pretty good model consensus like we have now showing some sort of ice event for the majority of Haywood County. GSP seems fairly bullish as well. It'll be interesting to see how the event plays out. Expand Yeah my sentiments exactly. The last big ice storm I saw here was several years ago which it had snowed 4 to 5 inches then changed to freezing rain but the cold air was locked in already. Also yeah it seems like the models are honing in on Haywood for significant ice for some reason... Honestly I hope we just get rain. I like the power... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 5:15 PM, cold air aloft said: I agree, like you and WxKnurd, I have a hard time seeing believing much (if any) ZR occurs in the central to western zones of Haywood County based on all my years of living here. I can't tell you how many times I have left work in Canton with temps in the 20's with ice to get home to Maggie Valley and find temps in the mid 40's with just rain. Once you get west of Clyde, the WAA usually erodes the CAD in these type of set ups. And yet....... I have to say I have rarely seen pretty good model consensus like we have now showing some sort of ice event for the majority of Haywood County. GSP seems fairly bullish as well. It'll be interesting to see how the event plays out. Expand Nice to see you posting also. Was wondering were you have been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 37/20 at the house. C'mon sun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 5:56 PM, Met1985 said: Nice to see you posting also. Was wondering were you have been. Expand Thank You! Life has been kind of hectic the last year or so and limited my social media participation, but glad to be able to get back here. I always enjoy the level headed discussions and insights found here in the mountain forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Like Met1985 I'm just not seeing this being a huge deal for lower elevations and the SW mountains. Shoot the Euro doesn't give me hardly any ice when I'm in a prime spot for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 5:14 PM, WxKnurd said: I’m just not getting what the models are seeing, about all want to put ice down in Haywood and I just don’t get it. Expand It's currently 55 at the bottom of balsam on the Jackson County side 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Not happening in Graham County fellows..bright sunshine..56° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 8:16 PM, Maggie Ace said: 55 here at the house under sunshine. Skiers are checking out early because of this ice threat. It's either going to be an epic bust or a forecasting coup. One has to wonder if the events in Texas and along the Northern Gul States influenced things a tad? Expand In their 3 PM update GSP is still sticking to their guns for us getting ice. They are the pros but it's hard to ditch over 40 years of life experience in these parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 6:35 PM, franklin NCwx said: It's currently 55 at the bottom of balsam on the Jackson County side Expand Maybe we can get 40’s and rain instead of 30’s this go round lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elev3999 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Not a cloud in the sky @ 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 8:16 PM, Maggie Ace said: 55 here at the house under sunshine. Skiers are checking out early because of this ice threat. It's either going to be an epic bust or a forecasting coup. One has to wonder if the events in Texas and along the Northern Gul States influenced things a tad?I am on of those “visitors” - hard to bail listening to you guys. Hard to ignore the pros. Going to get lift ticket for the night runs... . Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 8:34 PM, Hammer said: I am on of those “visitors” - hard to bail listening to you guys. Hard to ignore the pros. Going to get lift ticket for the night runs... . Pro Expand Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 8:16 PM, Maggie Ace said: 55 here at the house under sunshine. Skiers are checking out early because of this ice threat. It's either going to be an epic bust or a forecasting coup. One has to wonder if the events in Texas and along the Northern Gul States influenced things a tad? Expand Same here! It is actually a dang beautiful day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 36/24 at the house. Made it briefly to 38 but headed back down now. The early morning clouds really slowed things down. Car says 33 sitting in full sun in Newland.Looks like we're gonna have clear skies for a bit after sunset. Will give some good radiational cooling time before the clouds roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 8:53 PM, Tyler Penland said: 36/24 at the house. Made it briefly to 38 but headed back down now. The early morning clouds really slowed things down. Car says 33 sitting in full sun in Newland. Looks like we're gonna have clear skies for a bit after sunset. Will give some good radiational cooling time before the clouds roll in. Expand Yeah yall should get hammered up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well, this is terrifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 8:56 PM, BretWx said: Well, this is terrifying. Expand I really hope this is wrong... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well after a high of 55 we have dropped back to 41 degrees pretty quickly. That was fast but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 9:04 PM, Met1985 said: I really hope this is wrong... Expand Me too. I cannot recall ever seeing that much ice forecasted especially along the escarpment. It would be devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 9:07 PM, BretWx said: Me too. I cannot recall ever seeing that much ice forecasted especially along the escarpment. It would be devastating Expand Yeah in general for all the mountains. I cannot remember seeing this much ice forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 9:07 PM, BretWx said: Me too. I cannot recall ever seeing that much ice forecasted especially along the escarpment. It would be devastating Expand Me neither. The last real ice storm I even remember for Central to West Buncombe was in 1996. Huge ice storm with 4 inches of ice cold powder on top. Otherwise, we have had tree toppers and bridge icers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Already down to 39 at the house. Maybe the weenie coming out but, starting to get nervous! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The main cloud deck is just now approaching western Georgia...it’s going to be interesting to see how much cooling can happen before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 9:31 PM, BretWx said: Already down to 39 at the house. Maybe the weenie coming out but, starting to get nervous! Expand Keep your weenie in please 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Down to 34 now. I’ll take any and all warm nose I can get. Don’t have a good feeling about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/17/2021 at 10:49 PM, BretWx said: Down to 34 now. I’ll take any and all warm nose I can get. Don’t have a good feeling about this one. Expand Yeah like I said before I went into work the temp is dropping and dropping fast. My obs here will be limited the rest of the night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Dropping here quickly too. From 46 to 39 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well ahead of pace here with temps... uh oh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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