strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just hoping for something that coats the ground and stays long enough to play in. At this point that’s all I need. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Highlands through Glenville up into little Canada around 281. That’s some gorgeous country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 As with most events we talk a lot about populated areas (because its where we live) but who wants to throw down where you think the highest totals will be (factor in backend NW flow snow)? I'm liking the southern end of the Great Balsams but also could see Mt LeConte push past everyone with their last minute light accumulations Sunday morning. It's hard to go against Mt. Mitchell for me. I get more NWF that Mitchell here, but I have a feeling it'll do well enough on the front end to beat Leconte, even with the nwf. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I did not expect that type of Euro run. Look at the lack of moisture over WNC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I did not expect that type of Euro run. Look at the lack of moisture over WNC The euro is getting out of its wheelhouse now. If the 18Z NAM comes in like that then I’d be worried. Right now, the Euro is a bit outlier with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm gonna completely disregard the Euro and 21z rap and let it bite me here in a few hours. Don't believe it at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Models have sucked today, short range, medium range, long range, range rover, anything with range, sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Models have sucked today, short range, medium range, long range, range rover, anything with range, sucked. Yep, we went to 6 inches or more tomorrow night to less than an inch here and to cold rain all next weekend. Absolutely depressing day of model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Yep, we went to 6 inches or more tomorrow night to less than an inch here and to cold rain all next weekend. Absolutely depressing day of model runs NWS has upped the WSW area to 3-6 inches. They may have access to something other than these crappy models. Maybe the GFS will have something positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Jesus, happy hour isn't starting well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not good trends my friends. Not good trends at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Not good trends my friends. Not good trends at all. As GSP just expands the watch and ups totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: As GSP just expands the watch and ups totals. Currently I like the 1 to 4 inches. The models may correct back tonight into tomorrow morning but we have been here and done that already this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I would take this all day long. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: As GSP just expands the watch and ups totals. Morristown has also put up a WSW calling for 3-6 inches mountains and 1-3 valley locations. In situations like this, I think it's important to look at what the mets are seeing region wide. Yes, the models today have been concerning, but models in general right now seem to be a hot mess with wild run to run fluctuations short and long term. I'm still optimistic for this system and I think many in WNC will be happy by Sunday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I’m definitely not as confident as I was, but I think the short range models are keeping the low over Tennessee to long before transferring. We might just have to wait till tomorrow evening and watch and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Morristown has also put up a WSW calling for 3-6 inches mountains and 1-3 valley locations. In situations like this, I think it's important to look at what the mets are seeing region wide. Yes, the models today have been concerning, but models in general right now seem to be a hot mess with wild run to run fluctuations short and long term. I'm still optimistic for this system and I think many in WNC will be happy by Sunday morning. I have 4" in my nws forecast from gsp. 1/4 mile away from here the forecast is for 6" from mrx. I'm good either way. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said: So the 18Z GFS increases totals by about 3.5 inches from its previous run for a total of 10 nearby. Comical watching all these wild gyrations the past 36 hours! I still think a 2-4 3-6 type deal is in the cards for the mtns 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainOctopus Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Been following the ups and downs today, seems like deja vu with my lurking the past few years, watching the overnight models trend badly the next day. Probably a whole lot of confirmation bias there though. Apologies for the IMBY comment, but that's what I'm good for when I do chime in — I'm just hoping for more than a dusting here, too many teases this winter. Some winters we get pounded here in the southern mountains near the escarpment, and others it seems like NWFS dominates and we get flurries. So far this has been the latter—the kind of winters I remember in school in the late 90s. All the northern counties getting snow days, me huffing and puffing and hitting the books. Anyway, good luck everyone! Hopefully the models come in a little better for all of us overnight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Whatcha' think? True or false? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoJoe said: Whatcha' think? True or false? Given their track record the last couple systems gotta lean false. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Given their track record the last couple systems gotta lean false. I agree. I think it might end up being a number 2 on the SnoJoe scale: 1-2 inches = Nickels and dimes 2-4 inches = Ok, I guess. What's for dinner? 4-6 inches = Decent 6+ inches = A good snow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: I agree. I think it might end up being a number 2 on the SnoJoe scale: 1-2 inches = Nickels and dimes 2-4 inches = Ok, I guess. What's for dinner? 4-6 inches = Decent 6+ inches = A good snow Down in the valley, I will put the 2-4 in the good snow category. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 That scale pretty much matches up with mine Joe lol. I'm hoping for a decent event for my area, be good to get some pics from my wife of the dogs playing in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Whatcha' think? True or false? True down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Another year of 80"+ of rain and we struggle to get 3" of snow in one storm! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Down in the valley, I will put the 2-4 in the good snow category. My scale is a little on the high side! 5 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: That scale pretty much matches up with mine Joe lol. I'm hoping for a decent event for my area, be good to get some pics from my wife of the dogs playing in the snow. You'll die if this thing gets super amped and drops a foot! 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: True down this way . You've been so close this year. You'll get yours when that monster Kraken rolls through in a couple of weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoJoe said: My scale is a little on the high side! You'll die if this thing gets super amped and drops a foot! You've been so close this year. You'll get yours when that monster Kraken rolls through in a couple of weeks. Ha, I won't be home to enjoy. Up in Bluefield and a foot up here does me no good except keeping me in the hotel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Another year of 80"+ of rain and we struggle to get 3" of snow in one storm! You always amaze me with your rain totals. How much is your record year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sref. 75 qpf with 1" of snow here. #ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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