wncsnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 One thing I have noticed on the models is that if the storm blows up along the coast here should be some nice nw flow snow for you guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Little early for SREF plume guidance, but already showing an average of around 4 inches for Boone for this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ended up with a wind blown 3 inches with the morning showers. Had I daytime high of 21.3 with a cold wind. Hope we have decent flow Monday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ride around the neighborhood just before sunset. Really nice lighting...15° and windy. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I've very much dropped my expectations by a lot for this weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3kNAM is north, which is following other guidance at this point of pulling more north. I'm ready for spring. I'm tired of trying to sell trucks in the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sunday looks like an absolute mess on the 3km. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Latest SREF plumes for Boone (With two big dog outliers taken out): 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the northern mountains, Blue Ridge, foothills and northwest Piedmont. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looking at soundings on the HRRR and NAM 3km, there is a considerable difference on early Sunday morning. It does appear that the tongue of precip will move through initially around 3pm-5pm, and that will persist in the northern area of WNC through 10pm or so. Most of that will fall as snow. But I don't think it accumulates. Then the soundings differ. NAM 3km has a bit more pronounced warm nose at the onset of precipitation early Sunday morning. HRRR is not as cold, but doesn't have the pronounced warm nose. I see a couple hours of snow possible early Sunday even for valley locations. Then a mess will ensue it looks like. Hoping the HRRR is right and its a bit warmer because ice is not very fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hvward said: Looking at soundings on the HRRR and NAM 3km, there is a considerable difference on early Sunday morning. It does appear that the tongue of precip will move through initially around 3pm-5pm, and that will persist in the northern area of WNC through 10pm or so. Most of that will fall as snow. But I don't think it accumulates. Then the soundings differ. NAM 3km has a bit more pronounced warm nose at the onset of precipitation early Sunday morning. HRRR is not as cold, but doesn't have the pronounced warm nose. I see a couple hours of snow possible early Sunday even for valley locations. Then a mess will ensue it looks like. Hoping the HRRR is right and its a bit warmer because ice is not very fun. What you thinking for places like Marion, seems like we could be in a decent spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What you thinking for places like Marion, seems like we could be in a decent spot Yeah that cold air could lock it for a couple more hours. Wouldnt be surprised to see you wake up to a couple of crusty inches Sunday morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: Yeah that cold air could lock it for a couple more hours. Wouldnt be surprised to see you wake up to a couple of crusty inches Sunday morning. Thanks Ward, I sure hope so. Short range models seem to be generally trending a bit colder so it will be interesting. I definitely hope we don't get power issues with lots of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sperry Piltz Ice Accumulation Index http://www.usawx.com/icestormindex.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Had a low of 12 this morning. Hope yall do well with the mixed bag of winter weather. We do not do well in CAD events like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Had a low of 12 this morning. Hope yall do well with the mixed bag of winter weather. We do not do well in CAD events like this. I'm more interested in the nwf behind it. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, Buckethead said: I'm more interested in the nwf behind it. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I was just looking at the models about that. The flow looks rather strong and long lived actually. The cold air behind this system is pretty impressive for what it is. Should have highs in the 20s. Im thinking maybe 3 to 6 inches from that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm glad the mud has frozen again. It was getting sloppy last week. It usually takes about 48 hours of some teens and twenties for it to get hard. I hate mud. And wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: Had a low of 12 this morning. Hope yall do well with the mixed bag of winter weather. We do not do well in CAD events like this. The foothills can have there ice, I’d rather have the chance of snow on the flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Don't worry I don't want the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Buckethead said: I'm more interested in the nwf behind it. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yep. Snow Saturday overnnight isn't as exciting when you wake up Sunday to rain. But a few days of nwf could be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 For the little people! Swain-Haywood-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Waynesville and Tuckasegee 421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Northern Jackson and Southern Jackson Counties. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks like things are going to be a sloppy mess for tonight into tomorrow morning for a lot of the mountains but how long does the cold air hang on and how much is snow or ice will probably be a real time unfolding of things. Anyways it will be fun to watch. As for the upslope machine unfolding Sunday night into Monday night, the signal is very strong. This looks to be a very impressive event. Im even seeing were some places could approach a foot of snow according to the GFS. im still going with the 3 to 6 inches but that may need to be upped by tomorrow morning. Should be our most impressive upslope event of the season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey if a moderator sees this can the mountain thread be pinned also during these events? I know we get used to us seeing winter weather but it would help just not having to scroll down so far to find our thread during these winter weather events. Thank in advance. Sincerely Met1985. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 The sky was on fire this morning! 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 As Met and others have already mentioned, the NW flow snow looks very robust. This is the latest GFS 48 percip starting 6z Monday(1am) ending 6z Wednesday (1am) which should encompass the whole NWFS event. In most of our NWFS events the moisture is confined to 850mb and lower. With this one 700mb (9-10k feet up) moisture is going to be plenty throughout Monday. Then as the 700mb moisture moves out Monday night, the coldest 850mb temps come in with plenty of 850mb moisture around to keep this thing going well into Tuesday. The GFS precip map has only been increasing each run. Anything blue or inside the blues is at least 5" of snow. Like already mentioned this will likely be the best NWFS event this season and I would expect 6-12" to be common above 4k feet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 42 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: As Met and others have already mentioned, the NW flow snow looks very robust. This is the latest GFS 48 percip starting 6z Monday(1am) ending 6z Wednesday (1am) which should encompass the whole NWFS event. In most of our NWFS events the moisture is confined to 850mb and lower. With this one 700mb (9-10k feet up) moisture is going to be plenty throughout Monday. Then as the 700mb moisture moves out Monday night, the coldest 850mb temps come in with plenty of 850mb moisture around to keep this thing going well into Tuesday. The GFS precip map has only been increasing each run. Anything blue or inside the blues is at least 5" of snow. Like already mentioned this will likely be the best NWFS event this season and I would expect 6-12" to be common above 4k feet. Spot on Moto. Thats one thing I've been noticing is that the totals on just about all the models are increasing just about each run. This is going to be a very impressive event I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Patiently waiting for my mixed bag that will be mostly rain I’m sure . Flow setup looks to be great, maybe I can eek out an inch or two depending on the angle (although the strength looks to be that that could happen anyway). Man, STILL waiting to experience a Miller A since moving here. 2 years on the 15th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 HRRR looking good for the high County, has most of the area in the 4-6 range and less mixing through 9 am tomorrow. Granted it burned me big time for the last event so taking it was a bag of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: HRRR looking good for the high County, has most of the area in the 4-6 range and less mixing through 9 am tomorrow. Granted it burned me big time for the last event so taking it was a bag of salt. The HRRR sucks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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