Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, GoAPPS said: So the NAM and HRRR are in huge disagreement, especially in lower elevations like Asheville. Anyone have thoughts? I like the NAM better just because it has a much better track record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR is now throwing some of the ridges and valleys 4.-6 even before sunrise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: So the NAM and HRRR are in huge disagreement, especially in lower elevations like Asheville. Anyone have thoughts? Just speaking to what I'm seeing trying to compare the two in NE GA the NAM initialized way too warm with its 3pm temps. Showed mid 40s when ground truth is 39. Don't know if that's what's causing the changes with outcomes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BretWx said: HRRR is now throwing some of the ridges and valleys 4.-6 even before sunrise tomorrow. The HRRR is all over the place now. LOL Already cracked a Oatmeal Porter 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Time to head home. Pick up some beer and groceries on the way. It's go time! Good luck. Everything around here is packed. Even Lowes Hardware is busy ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The radar looks really nice. That deformation feature is already looking beefy! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I’ll take the latest Nam and call it a day, done looking at models, let’s have some fun! First year having a 4x4 might have to test it tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: GSP now has Maggie in a 12 inch possibility on the upper end of the event total. It will be interesting to see if those upper end totals verify. I think all of Haywood could be in range for 8 to 12 inches. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 You guys gotta quit basing the whole system on one run of one model. It’s really kinda past model time anyway. Nowcast time is upon you, good luck to all of you but especially the OG’s!!!. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Light returns already getting into SW mountains and NEGA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah im done looking at the models. I looked at the Euro and thats been it. Its going to do what its going to do. Now we just sit back and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: You guys gotta quit basing the whole system on one run of one model. It’s really kinda past model time anyway. Nowcast time is upon you, good luck to all of you but especially the OG’s!!! . Thanks Don and you are right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 The radar looks good and should only get better through the evening and night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 It does make me nervous the amount of downtime we have for the northern counties until everything picks up around 3 am, would like to be able to have something fall this evening. But beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: It does make me nervous the amount of downtime we have for the northern counties until everything picks up around 3 am, would like to be able to have something fall this evening. But beggars can't be choosers. For my area Im just glad the winds continue to be out of the East. I need all the help that can be given 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: It does make me nervous the amount of downtime we have for the northern counties until everything picks up around 3 am, would like to be able to have something fall this evening. But beggars can't be choosers. Really with southern storms thats normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Really with southern storms thats normal. Oh I agree. I just get irritated waiting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Lol a little pep talk gang. This storm is different than our normal southern storms but we do have blocking which will help out a lot. I know we have watched countless hours of models come in but now is the time to grab a drink watch the weather from your window and enjoy this storm coming together. I said it earlier but we are in the drivers seat with this storm. We have the elevation and we are not new to any of this. Even the foothills gang. Be patient and let the storm evolve. I believe it will be well worth it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Temp backing down to 35 with a DP of 25. Should be a steady decline for everyone the rest of the evening with clouds thickening from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I just look forward to getting my son outside for his first snow 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Current WV 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: I just look forward to getting my son outside for his first snow Nice bro! That is always exciting! Teach him young! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I usually don't start complaining until about the third Scotch. Somewhere in the 10 to 11 pm range. But like Ashy said, it's hard watching it snow down south while it creeps north. Temp's down to 33.9 after a high of 38.9 so I think we're ok there. Smells like snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, SnoJoe said: I usually don't start complaining until about the third Scotch. Somewhere in the 10 to 11 pm range. But like Ashy said, it's hard watching it snow down south while it creeps north. Temp's down to 33.9 after a high of 38.9 so I think we're ok there. Smells like snow. Lol yeah then you end up getting hammered with like 10 inches in 6 hours. I'll never forget that storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Current WV That is gorgeous! Not to be too off topic, but what is everyone drinking tonight? I'm thinking Jim and coke personally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ill be drinking Balvenie double wood 12 year old scotch whiskey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol a little pep talk gang. This storm is different than our normal southern storms but we do have blocking which will help out a lot. I know we have watched countless hours of models come in but now is the time to grab a drink watch the weather from your window and enjoy this storm coming together. I said it earlier but we are in the drivers seat with this storm. We have the elevation and we are not new to any of this. Even the foothills gang. Be patient and let the storm evolve. I believe it will be well worth it. Amen! Just got back home with a propane refill for my porch heater. Beer opened. Watching the sky. Good luck fellas! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 33.4/26.6 here and falling pretty quick. Surface temps certainly not gonna be an issue to start with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The radar looks amazing. A lot more moisture than modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, BretWx said: The radar looks amazing. A lot more moisture than modeled. Thats what I was thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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