Met1985 Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 32 degrees with light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Didn’t see anything falling when I went to bed after the App game but looks like some flakes fell and we have a trace of it in spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Hey fellas hope yall had a great thanksgiving!!! I took little man up to Roan the other day ill post pics later but it was white out conditions for sure had to kick 4h in a few times. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Picked up another inch overnight. It's graupelly...if that's a word. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Buckethead said: Picked up another inch overnight. It's graupelly...if that's a word. Of course it is. It every bit as much a word as flakelly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Currently it looks like the snow will begin tomorrow morning around the morning commute. This will be a NW flow snow again which is fine for this time of the year. I think this event will last about 24 hours. The totals the models are spitting out look bleak but ill say lower elevations 1-3 and in the favored spots 3-6. Im impressed with the NAM currently and will see if it continues to look impressive through the day. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Mid-20’s now with a heavy frost this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, WxKnurd said: Mid-20’s now with a heavy frost this morning Got to 20 degrees here today. Going to be a beautiful day before more cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 22°F at the house. Frosty (as well) this morning in Waynesville 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Local Yokel Wx said: 22°F at the house. Frosty (as well) this morning in Waynesville Nice to see you posting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Nice to see you posting more. Thanks Met! Life is slowly getting back into a better rhythm so I can spend more time on the weather. Hope Haywood is treating you well, although I do miss the Addie connection in Sylva for reports. I assume Crabtree is a step up for snowfall. We looked at property out there for the schools but ended up in Waynesville; its a crazy market out there. I'm digging into tomorrow's event right now, although light, at least we have something in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Mid 20’s here also! Heavy frost before the sun broke in! . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said: Thanks Met! Life is slowly getting back into a better rhythm so I can spend more time on the weather. Hope Haywood is treating you well, although I do miss the Addie connection in Sylva for reports. I assume Crabtree is a step up for snowfall. We looked at property out there for the schools but ended up in Waynesville; its a crazy market out there. I'm digging into tomorrow's event right now, although light, at least we have something in play. Oh yeah well I have two homes which gives me a neat perspective on the microclimate in the area. One in Crabtree and one off of Stamey cove rd back in a holler. Its amazing what just a half mile down the road does at either a plus or minus for snow. Yes I ended up in the Bethel district for my kids which im happy about. The 12z Nam is even kill with a decent event. I know the snow maps are unimpressive but I do like the look of this little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Oh yeah well I have two homes which gives me a neat perspective on the microclimate in the area. One in Crabtree and one off of Stamey cove rd back in a holler. Its amazing what just a half mile down the road does at either a plus or minus for snow. Yes I ended up in the Bethel district for my kids which im happy about. The 12z Nam is even kill with a decent event. I know the snow maps are unimpressive but I do like the look of this little event. I keep wondering about the initial build up of moisture and if SW NC can squeeze out light snow during the pre dawn hours before the bulk arrives closer to midday but from the NW at that time. Nothing that really collects but enough to see snow fall during the commute. Tough call either way. I see Hunter just put up his initial thoughts and will go with a deeper dive at 7pm. I'm not able to do a late post so I'm working on mine now, going with light snow around sunrise, ramping up to scattered snow showers and solid NW flow late morning through the afternoon hours. I might squeeze out a dusting here next the Mtn Research Station (open valley) but you should fair better in Crabtree, perhaps 0.5 - 1". That sound right to you? I think Cat could end up with 2 - 3" by Monday evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said: I keep wondering about the initial build up of moisture and if SW NC can squeeze out light snow during the pre dawn hours before the bulk arrives closer to midday but from the NW at that time. Nothing that really collects but enough to see snow fall during the commute. Tough call either way. I see Hunter just put up his initial thoughts and will go with a deeper dive at 7pm. I'm not able to do a late post so I'm working on mine now, going with light snow around sunrise, ramping up to scattered snow showers and solid NW flow late morning through the afternoon hours. I might squeeze out a dusting here next the Mtn Research Station (open valley) but you should fair better in Crabtree, perhaps 0.5 - 1". That sound right to you? I think Cat could end up with 2 - 3" by Monday evening. Yeah I like the idea of an initial push then showers then it really ramps up in the afternoon and evening with the majority of the forcing coming through. I do like those numbers. Maybe bumped up an inch or two here and there. These events can be finicky for the mountains. Yeah I saw Hunters post as well. I think we are all on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Good to see you back posting more local, always enjoyed your posts when you would fire up the guns when I was down in Charlotte. Seems we’ve got Haywood and it’s microclimates covered pretty good with posters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, WxKnurd said: Good to see you back posting more local, always enjoyed your posts when you would fire up the guns when I was down in Charlotte. Seems we’ve got Haywood and it’s microclimates covered pretty good with posters. Yeah for sure. Its exciting being from here to see people move here and come out of the wood work. Not taking anything away from any other county but Haywood has a special climate from Maggie Valley, to J. Creek, to white Oak, Cataloochee, to Fines creek, Max Patch, Crabtree, ect, ect. The local microclimates around here are an attest to the topography of the county. Obviously being a weather nerd its all fascinating to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, WxKnurd said: Good to see you back posting more local, always enjoyed your posts when you would fire up the guns when I was down in Charlotte. Seems we’ve got Haywood and it’s microclimates covered pretty good with posters. Thanks WxKnurd. SW NC is truly being represented on this thread at least. One of these days we need to put this network to use, for what I don't know, but this many enthusiasts in one area has potential for something. I like your spot for an inch or two but you probably already know that. I have a dear friend who lives off Chad Crawford Rd and I told him to expect at least one inch, maybe two. I say that but I also reminded him that I called for a half inch last Mon/Tues and he ended up with 2.75", so he knows to take my input with a chunk, not a grain, of salt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Something im noticing on the models this morning is that both the NAM and GFS show is starting out as a period of brief rain before changing to snow for the rest of the day. This coukd cause some major travel issues early in the morning. Something im keeping an eye on to see if this is a new trend. Also the GFS looks good for the mountains again. I would say we will see an advisory for the mountains come out by 4 or 5 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 12z GFS is mint for the mountains. This is the 24hr QPF ending 1am Tuesday. I would expect precip to be all snow above 4k feet in the northern mountains starting sometime near midnight tonight. Based on this QPF map, I would expect a likely 3-5 inches for areas above 4k feet especially the northern mountains. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Models look to be playing catch-up today increasing qpf each run. You love to see it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 22 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Models look to be playing catch-up today increasing qpf each run. You love to see it. Yeah the Euro is a lot more robust than previous runs. A great sign today before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 38 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Models look to be playing catch-up today increasing qpf each run. You love to see it. 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the Euro is a lot more robust than previous runs. A great sign today before the event. Wholeheartedly agree. Pretty much every model today has flipped toward the juicier side of things. Will love to see the radar a little later on here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 hours ago, MotoWeatherman said: 12z GFS is mint for the mountains. This is the 24hr QPF ending 1am Tuesday. I would expect precip to be all snow above 4k feet in the northern mountains starting sometime near midnight tonight. Based on this QPF map, I would expect a likely 3-5 inches for areas above 4k feet especially the northern mountains. Thinking about chasing this up at beech, what times does it look to start? Trying to figure out when to get up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Swain-Haywood- Including the city of Waynesville 238 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...The higher elevations of Swain and Haywood Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, and Luck 238 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches. Additionally, winds could as high as 35 mph Monday evening into Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Pretty much falls in line with what im thinking. The NWS has split the southern and north central mountains with the advisory. With being the nothern mountains will see much sustained winds with this which is common with this type setup. The southern mountains will will see winds also but just wont be as sustained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Good luck y'all. Its coming. Cloud tops building over AR/MS and the deck over TN is getting thicker. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-07-24-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 18z NAM continuing the increased qpf trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 18z NAM continuing the increased qpf trend. Yep was fixing to come post that. Usually its the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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